NFL picks - Week 16

The holiday season hasn't been kind to my picks.

After six consecutive weeks of 10 or more correct picks, I've fallen back to the pack a bit. Can I break the funk this week?

In more pressing Green Bay issues, the Packers look to avoid playoff elimination when the New York Giants come to Lambeau Field for the first time since the 2007 NFC Championship Game.

On Monday night, the Falcons look to clinch the NFC South and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a victory over the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.

New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Chicago have all clinched playoff berths. Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, New Orleans and both New York teams can clinch in various scenarios this weekend.

Let's get to the picks.

Pittsburgh (10-4) over Carolina (2-12)
Line: Pittsburgh -13.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

In a game which Carolina never really had a chance, they never got close. Is anyone really surprised?

Dallas (5-9) over Arizona (4-10)
Line: Dallas -6.5
Spread pick: Dallas

Rare are the times a team has fallen from Super Bowl contender to conference doormat with the departure of one player. Such is the plight of the 2010 Arizona Cardinals after Kurt Warner hung up his cleats after last season. Arizona can start the rebuilding process early, as Ryan Mallett should be available in the top five of next April's NFL draft.

New England (12-2) over Buffalo (4-10)
Line: New England -8.5
Spread pick: Buffalo to cover

After dropping their first eight games of the season, the Bills are winners of four of their last six contests. Seriously. They're pesky, the game is in Buffalo, and the Bills would love to trip the Pats up on New England's drive for Dallas. They'll come close, but the Patriots will end up with the W.

Chicago (10-4) over New York Jets (10-4)
Line: Chicago -1.5
Spread pick: Chicago

Call me crazy, but I can't be confident in Mark Sanchez, in cold weather, on the road, against one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Bears have New York's strength covered: Chicago ranks third in the league against the run. Bear down, Chicago Bears - a first-round bye may be in the cards.

Baltimore (10-4) over Cleveland (5-9)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

Cleveland, and Peyton Hillis specifically, may have a little extra motivation after Ray Lewis essentially said Hillis' monster game in Baltimore earlier this season was a fluke. This one may stay close for a bit too long (kind of Baltimore's M.O. this year) but the Ravens will ride the momentum of last week's win to keep the pressure on the Steelers in the AFC North race.

San Francisco (5-9) over St. Louis (6-8)
Line: St. Louis -2.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

The youth in St. Louis may finally be catching up to the Rams. After a strong start, the Rams are starting to fade down the stretch. Enter the Niners, who may actually fulfill Mike Singletary's wild claim to the NFC West crown. It can't happen without a win in St. Louis Sunday. It'll be a wild week out west in the season's final week.

Detroit (4-10) over Miami (7-7)
Line: Miami -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

Miami has the league's worst home record at 1-6. Detroit is an equally putrid 1-6 on the road, but really got a kick out of winning in Florida last weekend. Why not sweep the season's Florida road trip?

Jacksonville (8-6) over Washington (5-9)
Line: Jacksonville -6.5
Spread pick: Jacksonville

Apparently, As The World Turns is filmed at Redskins Park in Ashburn, Va. The team is falling apart around first-year coach Mike Shanahan, who may very well have sent Donovan McNabb packing with the recent end-of-season benching McNabb received. Don't think the Jags will be hurt by the absence of Maurice Jones-Drew - Rashad Jennings is no slouch.

Kansas City (9-5) over Tennessee (6-8)
Line: Kansas City -5.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

The Chiefs are one of only three teams that are undefeated at home thus far in 2010. Tennessee doesn't appear to be the team that will change that trend. The Titans got a big win last week, but it came at the expense of the floundering Texans. The team that was formerly known as the Texans will get the best of Tennessee this Sunday.

Indianapolis (8-6) over Oakland (7-7)
Line: Indianapolis -3.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

Never count the Colts out unless Peyton Manning isn't the one taking the snaps. When Indy needed to win last week against the Jaguars, they came out on top. Wins over the Raiders and Chiefs get the Colts to 10-6 and another trip to the playoffs. Lose in the Black Hole, and the AFC playoffs may be strangely Colt-less.

Houston (5-9) over Denver (4-10)
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

As fast as Tim Tebow came to be the starter in Denver, he may be on his way out. Broncos great John Elway, potentially a front-office figure head for the Broncos before too long, said he'd love to see Andrew Luck under center at Mile High, should the Broncos be presented with the opportunity to draft Luck. Trouble's a-brewin' in Denver.

San Diego (8-6) over Cincinnati (3-11)
Line: San Diego -7.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Cincinnati had to hold off the Browns last week for their third win of the season. That would be fine if it were Sept. 26, not Dec. 26. The Chargers are just a little better than Cleveland ... and won't keep the Bengals close Sunday.

Tampa Bay (8-6) over Seattle (6-8)
Line: Tampa Bay -6.5
Spread pick: Seattle to cover

I keep picking the Bucs, and they keep making me regret it. Like St. Louis, the youth in Tampa may finally be catching up to Raheem Brock's team. A third-place finish in the division gives the Bucs a favorable 2011 schedule and makes them a serious dark horse candidate in the NFC.

Green Bay (8-6) over New York Giants (9-5)
Line: Green Bay -2.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

The season is on the line for the Packers Sunday afternoon. Lose, and a season full of potential is thrown away. Win, and you're in the driver's seat for an NFC wildcard spot. Despite Mike McCarthy's raging ineptitude, the Packers' defense, and the return of Aaron Rodgers, will power the Pack to the win over a Giants team that can't close the deal against good teams.

Philadelphia (10-4) over Minnesota (5-9)
Line: Philadelphia -13.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Vikings really haven't had anyone worth a damn under center all year, but a banged up Adrian Peterson makes hanging with the Eagles and Michael Vick nearly impossible. Vick has been too much for many teams this season, and the Vikings will be another team to fall victim to the 2010 NFL MVP.

New Orleans (10-4) over Atlanta (12-2)
Line: Atlanta -2.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

When I made my preseason picks, I said the road team would win each meeting in this divisional series this year. I have to stick with what I picked at the beginning of September. It's not a terrible pick, either, as the Saints and Falcons went down to the wire in the Big Easy earlier this year. Expect another close one.

Last week: 9-7
Last week v. spread: 8-8

Season record: 140-68
Season record v. spread: 109-99