NFL picks - Divisional round

The NFL is down to its elite eight, and the 2010 divisional round is brought to you by the letter R - for rematch.

All four of this weekend's games are, essentially, Round Two of games we saw during the regular season.

In Week 4, the Ravens beat the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, 17-14, at Heinz Field. That game, however, was the fourth and final game the Steelers played without Ben Roethlisberger.

Seattle was only 2-6 on the road this season, but one of those two wins came in Week 6 in Chicago. The Seahawks sacked Jay Cutler six times en route to a 23-20 victory over the Bears.

In Week 12, Atlanta played host to the Green Bay Packers. A 47-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with only nine seconds remaining in regulation gave the Falcons a 20-17 victory.

Week 13 was the one week the New York Jets would like to forget. On their annual trip to Foxborough, the rival Patriots beat the Jets in all phases of the game on their way to a 45-3 victory.

All four regular-season winners will be looking for a repeat performance this weekend. How many can accomplish the feat?

Let's get to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Line: Ranges from Pittsburgh -3 to Pittsburgh -3.5; opened at Pittsburgh -3.5

By now, you've likely heard the stats. Here they are again, in case you missed them.

Since 2003, the Ravens and Steelers have met 17 times. Combined score? 302-302. The Steelers have the edge in wins during that span, 9-8. The teams split the 2010 season series, with each team earning the win on the road. The last five games between the two teams have been decided by three points.

So, yeah. These teams are close. Closer than rice and the color white. So don't expect a blowout Saturday afternoon at Heinz Field.

The edge appears to go to Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Big Ben is 8-2 against Baltimore in his career, and the Ravens haven't beaten Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in the playoffs.

Saturday's X-factor, as it so often is in this rivalry, will be Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu. After missing the large majority of the last few weeks with a calf injury, Polamalu is listed as probable for Saturday's rubber match.

Will Polamalu be the difference again Sunday?

The Pick: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 16


Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

When these two teams went down to the wire at the Georgia Dome Nov. 28, it was a showcase of two of the league's best young quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Rodgers led the Packers to a late, game-tying touchdown before Matty Ice put the Falcons in range for the game-winning field goal.

The All-Pro quarterbacks will meet again Saturday night, with one's legacy growing by earning his first trip to the NFC Championship Game.

But the difference-maker may not be either Rodgers or Ryan, but Packers rookie running back James Starks. When the Packers and Falcons met just after Thanksgiving, Rodgers was Green Bay's leading rusher, with a mere 51 yards.

A balanced attack may send the Packers back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2007. Starks ran wild in Philadelphia, gaining 123 yards on 23 carries and providing the Packers with the balance they so desperately searched for since Ryan Grant's season-ending injury.

Atlanta will counter with a rested attack, and Ryan's sterling 20-2 home record as a starter. Michael Turner was the league's third-best runner during the regular season. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will have rested legs.

Will it be balance, or rest, that prevails Saturday night?

The Pick: Atlanta 26, Green Bay 24


Seattle Seahawks (8-9) at Chicago Bears (11-5)

Line: Chicago -10; opened at Chicago -9.5

Seahawks fans at Qwest Field literally made the earth shake during Marshawn Lynch's highlight touchdown run which may have been the unofficial nail in New Orleans' coffin last weekend.

The scenery will change drastically this weekend, however. There will be no 12th Man, and air temperatures around kickoff will be around 20 degrees when the Bears welcome the NFC West champions to Solider Field Sunday afternoon.

Jay Cutler makes his first playoff start since high school, hoping to lead the Bears back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since they went to the Super Bowl in 2006.

But the Seahawks will counter with emotion and excitement. Seattle's players and coaches may be the only ones that believe the still-under-.500 Seahawks can go to harrowed Soldier Field and walk away with a victory.

When Seattle beat the Bears in early October, Chicago's offense line more resembled a sieve than a barrier of protection. Cutler was sacked six times in Seattle's 23-20 victory, and was never given a chance to get comfortable.

Cutler's comfort, and his maturity in arguably the biggest game of his young career, will be integral to Chicago's success. The Seahawks are effectively playing with nothing to lose, which makes them one of the most dangerous teams left in the playoffs.

Can Cutler lead the Bears one step closer to Dallas, or will Seattle's improbable run continue?

The Pick: Chicago 24, Seattle 14


New York Jets (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-2)

Line: Ranges from New England -8.5 to New England -9; opened at New England -9

It seems as though Rex Ryan has been talking up the final divisional round game since the minute his Jets walked off the field at Lucas Oil Stadium last weekend.

As usual, Bill Belichick and the Patriots have been (largely) silent, looking forward to the battle at Gillette Stadium rather than hyping the game in the newspapers.

The Jets will surely be motivated by the 45-3 beatdown they were handed when they last visited Foxborough, while the Patriots will almost certainly be ready to respond to the constant trash-talking Ryan and the Jets have been doing.

Quarterback play is the X-factor in this match-up. In each of the two regular-season meeting between these two teams, the quarterback who played the better game led his team to victory.

Mark Sanchez must have the best playoff game in his career to lead the Jets back to the AFC Championship Game, as Tom Brady will likely be primed and ready to take on the staunch Jets defense.

Will Brady add to his legacy, or will Sanchez begin to write his?

The Pick: New England 31, New York 23

Last week: 3-1
Playoff record: 3-1
Overall 2010 record: 174-86