NFL picks - Super Bowl XLV

For the first time in my life, I can't pick a team to root for in the Super Bowl.

I've watched every Super Bowl since Super Bowl XXV, which is about as far back as I actually have memory of. Scott Norwood shanked the most famous missed field goal in Super Bowl history that night as a six-year-old future sports writer watched from Green Bay's east side. The rest, as the cliches say, is history.

In every one of the 20 games from Super Bowl XXV through last year's game, I've found someone to cheer for. Some games (Super Bowl XXXV, for example) were easier than others. But there's always been someone to cheer for.

Not this year. The two NFL franchises I hate the most, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers, take the field at Cowboys Stadium Sunday to determine the winner of the 45th annual Super Bowl.

On the bright side, Sunday's game will be a win-win situation for me. Should the Steelers win, my pre-playoffs pick to win it all would be correct. On the other hand, I picked the Packers to win it all last February.

This will be my best postseason showing, picks-wise, of my sports writing career. Will I finish the postseason 8-3 or 7-4?

Let's get to the pick.

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers (13-6) v. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4)

For the first time since the 1997 season, the Green Bay Packers are in the Super Bowl. Across the field will be the Pittsburgh Steelers, appearing in their third NFL Championship game in the past six seasons.

These teams have as many similarities as any two teams in the league, save the man under center. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is a quiet leader, the laid back California kid who is inexplicably cast in the shadow of his predecessor. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is a media staple, and his run-ins with the law are well documented.

Another similarity these teams share is their chance to bring the Vince Lombardi Trophy home with them. The Packers are listed as 2.5-point favorites, but betting lines mean little in January and February.

Who will add another accolade to an already cramped trophy case?

The Case for Green Bay

Simply put, the Packers have been the hottest team in the league since Christmas. Green Bay has tallied five straight victories, taking down the NFC's top two seeds in back-to-back weeks to earn their trip to Dallas.

Green Bay's offense and defense have shared the weight of this year's Super Bowl run.

Aaron Rodgers has one of the best sets of receivers at his disposal. Greg Jennings may be the most underrated receiver in the league. Donald Driver, who turned 36 years old earlier this week, is still someone to watch wherever he lines up. Jordy Nelson is stepping up as quite the role player, and James Jones is a downfield threat that must be accounted for.

James Starks has rushed for 263 yards in three playoff games, giving the Packers the consistent running back they've been looking for since Ryan Grant went down in the season opener.

It seems as though one of the league's best defensive units during the regular season turned it up during the postseason. Clay Matthews has been a terror, as usual. Tramon Williams quickly joined the league's elite on the corner, and Charles Woodson has been the ball hawk he's so known for. The league's second-ranked scoring defense is allowing only 17 points per contest during the playoffs.

Pittsburgh will have plenty of questions to answer. Can they account for all of the offensive talent Green Bay brings to the table? How will they handle Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson? Can the defense's age overcome Green Bay's youth?

The Case for Pittsburgh

Injuries and the four-game suspension of Ben Roethlisberger couldn't keep the Pittsburgh Steelers from winning their third AFC Championship in six years.

Many pundits wrote the Steelers off once Big Ben's suspension was handed down. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's chief rival, the Baltimore Ravens, were a Super Bowl contender in their own right. The mountain seemed too tall for the Steelers to climb.

But they did it anyway.

Pittsburgh shot out to a 3-1 start without their All-Pro starting quarterback, and went 11-3 with Big Ben under center. Like the Packers, the Steelers offense overcame multiple injuries, most notably along the offensive line, to reach Dallas.

The defense, as always, was as tough as they come in the NFL. James Harrison is a difference-maker that must be accounted for at all times. Troy Polamalu can change a game in one play. James Farrior was the captain, and leader, of the league's best scoring defense.

Good offenses can challenge the Steelers, though. Two of Pittsburgh's four losses came to the high-powered offenses of New England and New Orleans. Both teams utilized balance to take down the Steelers, and the Packers will likely look to do the same Sunday night.

The proverbial X-factor for Pittsburgh isn't on the field, though. It is head coach Mike Tomlin, who is widely regarded as one of the best game-planners and motivators in the league. He knows how to scheme against any opponent, and has put together game plans to take down the league's best since taking over in 2007.

Green Bay will also have questions to answer if they wish to win their fourth Super Bowl in team history. Can they take down Roethlisberger once they reach him? Can they establish the run against the league's best rushing defense? How will they handle Pittsburgh's outstanding front seven?

When all is said and done Sunday night, the team that can effectively move the ball both through the air and on the ground will prevail. Points will likely be at a premium, as the league's top two scoring defense will meet in the Super Bowl for the first time in more than 25 years.

The old saying goes, "Offense wins games, defense wins championships." Despite the shift in the dichotomy of the league, I still think that statement holds as true as ever.

The Pick: Pittsburgh 26, Green Bay 23


Maybe the statement needs to be amended this year. Maybe it should say, "Experience on defense wins championships."

Pittsburgh's offense has plenty of experience handling a game-changing outside linebacker and a ball-hawking defensive back, playing Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed and the Baltimore Ravens twice, and sometimes three times, each season.

One of Pittsburgh's 25 players who have Super Bowl experience is Polamalu. He is a game-changer in every sense of the term, and having a guy like that in a game against one of the league's strongest passing attacks is simply invaluable. He has affected the outcome of big games many times during his Hall-of-Fame career, and it would be no surprise to see him do it again Sunday night.

Last week: 2-0
Divisional round: 2-2
Playoff record: 7-3
Overall 2010 record: 178-88