NFL picks - Week One

In less than 24 hours, the 2011 NFL season begins when the last two Super Bowl winners clash on the west side of Green Bay.

This offseason seemed longer than most, after being inundated with constant images of lawyers and player representatives battling over squllions of dollars during the NFL lockout.

But all that is history, as the Packers begin their defense of the Vince Lombardi Trophy against the New Orleans Saints Thursday night.

My Eliminator pick returns again, after a lengthy absence. If you don't remember it from last year, you're not the only one - my Eliminator pick lost in Week One, ending my run in the competition. Thank you, San Diego Chargers.

Peyton Manning and his sideline clipboard agree: Let's get to the picks.

Green Bay over New Orleans
Line: Green Bay -4.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Green Bay has been buzzing all offseason thanks to the Pack's Super Bowl XLV victory. Lambeau will be rocking Thursday night. There's no way the Packers faithful will allow their world champions to fall on Opening Night.

Atlanta over Chicago
Line: Atlanta -2.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

Don't get used to seeing Jay Cutler competing in NFC Championship games. The success of the 2010 Bears was the product of a few lucky bounces and an easy schedule. Life will get a lot harder this year, and it starts with Matt Ryan and one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

Cleveland over Cincinnati
Line: Cleveland -4.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

The favorites in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes likely wouldn't even take the Stanford signal-caller next April, with Andy Dalton starting under center now that Carson Palmer has called it quits. A long 2011 season begins with a loss to the in-state rival Browns, who will be a team to keep an eye on this year.

Kansas City over Buffalo
Line: Kansas City -6.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

Arrowhead Stadium is one tough place to win, and nobody wants to open their season with a trip to Kansas City. Just ask the 2010 Chargers. The Chiefs won't replicate their 2010 success this season, but they're still a tough squad. Anything can happen in the wide-open AFC West.

Philadelphia over St. Louis
Line: Philadelphia -5.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Dream Team might find themselves in the same position the NBA's so-called Dream Team found themselves in this year. But that still means an excellent regular season and a deep playoff run. It all starts Sunday, when the Eagles take down the surprise 2011 NFC West champion Rams.

Detroit over Tampa Bay
Line: Tampa Bay -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

These aren't your father's Lions. Well, they're not the Lions you're used to, either. Detroit can fulfill the lofty expectations bestowed upon them if quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Jahvid Best remain healthy. There's talent everywhere in Detroit. Watch out for the Lions.

Jacksonville over Tennessee
Line: Jacksonville -3.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

That putrid odor coming from the AFC South is the Jaguars and Titans. Jacksonville made the bold decision to cut David Garrard less than a week before the season opener, while Tennessee made the bold decision to not pay Chris Johnson before training camp. Their next bold decisions will come about 10 minutes apart, in the top five of the 2012 NFL draft.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Line: Baltimore -2.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

The last time these two teams locked up, a phantom holding call cost the Ravens what would have been a 28-24 victory in Pittsburgh. There's a whole lot of speed under those purple jerseys now, and they haven't forgotten how last season ended.

Houston over Indianapolis
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

The last man not named Peyton Manning to start a regular season game at quarterback for the Colts is now coaching the 49ers. I was still in middle school. And the man who will start for Indy Sunday, Kerry Collins, was a few weeks away from asking for a trade out of Carolina. Good luck on Sunday, Kerry. You and your teammates will need it.

NY Giants over Washington
**Eliminator Pick**
Line: New York -3.5
Spread pick: New York

There will be plenty of bad blood flowing Sunday in the nation's capital, but will anyone outside of New York and Washington be watching? The Giants and 'Skins are set for mediocre seasons at best. It'll be especially tough on Mike Shanahan and the Redskins, who may already be requesting the mass production of Andrew Luck jerseys.

San Francisco over Seattle
Line: San Francisco -5.5
Spread pick: Seattle

Maybe Peyton Manning can watch the man he took over for in Indianapolis, Jim Harbaugh, earn his first NFL coaching victory. What else does Manning have to do Sunday?

San Diego over Minnesota
Line: San Diego -8.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

I have a Chargers problem. For four straight years, I've picked them to do well. You'd think I'd have learned from the last three years, but I haven't. Another year filled with promise could easily end in failure ... or a trip to Indianapolis next February.

Arizona over Carolina
Line: Arizona -5.5
Spread pick: Arizona

The Scam - er, Cam Newton Era begins Sunday, but it isn't going to be pretty. Instead of seeing those pro defenses for four series, you'll be seeing them for four quarters, Cam. Arizona's defense is a nice way to ease into the NFL, but the Cardinals' offense will be too much for the inexperienced Panthers defense to handle.

NY Jets over Dallas
Line: New York -4.5
Spread pick: Dallas

This won't be a Super Bowl preview, but these teams may both be in the discussion when the calendar turns at the end of the year. Will Rex Ryan continue to talk trash, or will he put his foot in his mouth once again? (Thank you, thank you. I'm here all week.) Sunday's trip to New York will be a great litmus test for the Cowboys, who will give the Eagles all they can handle in the race for the NFC East crown.

New England over Miami
Line: New England -5.5
Spread pick: New England

The Dolphins like to make trips to South Beach really tough on the Pats, especially on Monday nights. Monday night marks the beginning of what may be this New England team's final run at a Super Bowl championship, and every player on their aging roster knows it. Is it really now or never for the Pats?

Oakland over Denver
Line: Denver -0.5
Spread pick: Oakland

Would it kill the Raiders to keep a head coach for more than two and a half hours? If they had some consistency at the helm, they may actually be a threat for the playoffs this year. Retaining a head coach through the summer would likely cause Al Davis to roll in his grave, though. Such is the plight of the Oakland Raiders.

Final 2010 record: 178-89