NFL picks - Week Three

Where has the time gone?

It seems like just yesterday I sat at my computer writing my 2011 season preview, and here we are at Week 3 already. Impact players have fallen to serious injury, the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes are in full swing, and the weather is starting to reflect the 2011 season's complete arrival.

We live in a bizarre NFL world. The Colts are 0-2, while the Bills and Redskins are 2-0. Peyton Manning hasn't taken a snap yet this year. Andy Dalton and Alex Smith have higher passer ratings than Philip Rivers. The top two scoring defenses in the NFL belong to the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions.

It's going to be a wild ride. Let's get to the picks.

New England (2-0) over Buffalo (2-0)
Line: New England -8.5
Spread pick: New England

Buffalo's two wins have come across the catastrophe that is the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs and the Raiders, who are always in some sort of disarray. I'll believe in the 2011 Bills if they can hang with - or, dare I say, defeat - the Patriots. Until that happens, I'm not buying in to Buffalo just yet.

San Francisco (1-1) over Cincinnati (1-1)
Line: Cincinnati -2.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

I've been pleasantly surprised by the job Jim Harbaugh has done with a 49ers squad nobody will confuse with the league's most talented teams. Like Buffalo, Cincinnati hasn't done anything to impress me this year. Until they do, they're still in the running for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes they probably don't have any interest winning.

Cleveland (1-1) over Miami (0-2)
Line: Cleveland -2.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

Don't look now, but the Browns ranks sixth in the NFL in yards allowed thus far. Yes, those first two opponents (Cincinnati and a Peyton Manning-less Indianapolis) aren't going to set the world on fire, but neither are the Dolphins. A loss in Cleveland Sunday may be Tony Sparano's last as Dolphins head coach.

Tennessee (1-1) over Denver (1-1)
Line: Tennessee -6.5
Spread pick: Denver

So, the Titans lost to the Jaguars in the season opener, but controlled the Ravens last week in a 26-13 victory. Confused? Me too. Denver should be a good balancing point for the Titans, who are surprise contenders in a wide open AFC South.

Detroit (2-0) over Minnesota (0-2)
Line: Detroit -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

We'll likely find out, over the course of the next three weeks, if the Lions are for real. While they may not be undefeated when they play the Bears on Monday Night Football Oct. 10, they'll be perfect when they visit Cowboys Stadium next weekend.

New Orleans (1-1) over Houston (2-0)
Line: New Orleans -3.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Houston has allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season. That will likely change Sunday in the Big Easy, but the Texans can make a big statement by playing my Super Bowl XLVI champions close on the road.

Philadelphia (1-1) over New York Giants (1-1)
Line: Philadelphia -7.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Eagles proved one thing last week: A "Dream Team" they are not. Once Michael Vick went down, so did the rest of the Eagles. Vince Young returns this week as Vick's backup, but he really isn't much of an upgrade over Mike Kafka. On the other hand, add the Giants to the list of teams I have been completely underwhelmed by this season. Because of that, they don't win Sunday.

Carolina (0-2) over Jacksonville (1-1)
Line: Carolina -3.5
Spread pick: Carolina

Cam Newton has been lighting secondaries up so far this season, and Jacksonville simply does not have the personnel to shut down the passing attack Newton has shown he's capable of leading. In the battle of first-round picks, Newton gets the win over Blaine Gabbert and the Jags.

San Diego (1-1) over Kansas City (0-2)
Line: San Diego -14.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Expect a big day from Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Andrew Luck might want to start looking for homes in the Kansas City area. And Todd Haley better start working on his resume.

New York Jets (2-0) over Oakland (1-1)
Line: New York -3.5
Spread pick: Oakland

There are certainly signs of life in Oakland. They're certainly not coming from Al Davis, though. New York is a bit too much for the Raiders to handle, but if Oakland can continue their strong play and get a few wins outside of the division, they may be a dark horse in the AFC West.

Baltimore (1-1) over St. Louis (0-2)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

Last week's loss to the Titans was a wake-up call for the Ravens. Rare does a team with Ray Lewis on the roster lack intensity, but the leader of the Baltimore locker room won't let another flat performance happen on his watch. Injuries, and one of the best defenses in the league, will do the Rams in at home.

Tampa Bay (1-1) over Atlanta (1-1)
Line: Tampa Bay -1.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

Atlanta certainly hasn't been impressive this season, getting blown out by the Bears and coming back against the Michael Vick-less Eagles last week. If Vick stayed in the game, the Falcons would be 0-2. They'll find their second loss of the season Sunday afternoon in Tampa.

Green Bay (2-0) over Chicago (1-1)
Line: Green Bay -3.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

When the Packers visit Soldier Field, it's an even playing field, no matter how good each side is. Green Bay is frighteningly similar to New Orleans, which blew the Bears up last weekend. This one will be much closer, but the Packers appear to be a little too strong for the inconsistent Bears to handle.

Arizona (1-1) over Seattle (0-2)
Line: Arizona -3.5
Spread pick: Arizona

No quarterback. No running game. Not nearly enough defense. Things aren't looking good for the Seahawks this year. Maybe Andrew Luck will move up the coast this upcoming spring.

Pittsburgh (1-1) over Indianapolis (0-2)
Line: Pittsburgh -10.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

It's shocking just how bad the Colts are without Peyton Manning under center. Maybe Kerry Collins will come around, but he's more likely to lose his gray hair on the field than turn the Colts into a respectable side this season.

Dallas (1-1) over Washington (2-0)
Line: Dallas -6.5
Spread pick: Washington

I'll throw the Redskins a bone here, but I'm still not convinced. Last week's one-point win over the Cardinals, who consider defense an optional part of the game, isn't doing Washington any favors. As the Skins will find out Monday night, the Cowboys are nothing like the Cardinals.

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 10-6
Season record: 24-8
Season record v. spread: 21-11