NFL picks - Week Two

Last week was a beautiful illustration of the highs and lows the NFL can provide.

The Buffalo Bills came out and ripped apart the defending AFC West-champion Kansas City Chiefs. Chicago quieted the critics by dominating one of the preseason NFC favorites, the Atlanta Falcons. And the Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Jets for three quarters, but the fickleness of the NFL reared its head as the Jets came back to grab the win.

For me, last Sunday was both good and bad. In what I can only describe as overdue comeuppance, the Baltimore Ravens crushed the rival Pittsburgh Steelers 35-7. But, for the second year in a row, I lost my Eliminator pick in Week One. Thank you, New York Giants.

So, for the second year in a row, my Week Two picks are without an Eliminator pick. One less thing to worry about, I suppose.

Let's get to the picks.

Oakland (1-0) over Buffalo (1-0)
Line: Buffalo -3.5
Spread pick: Oakland

Last week's blowout win over Kansas City is getting blown way out of proportion. The Chiefs were a complete catastrophe last Sunday, and it didn't help matters when All-Pro safety Eric Berry went down with a torn ACL. Let's calm down a bit before we anoint the Bills as 2011's surprise team.

New Orleans (0-1) over Chicago (1-0)
Line: New Orleans -7.5
Spread pick: Chicago

As ESPN said last week, the two best teams in the NFL may have squared off at Lambeau Field last week, and if not for a weak goal-line call by Sean Payton, the Saints may have forced overtime. The Bears looked great last week, but the Saints are certainly not the Falcons. There's just too many weapons at Drew Brees' disposal.

Cleveland (0-1) over Indianapolis (0-1)
Line: Cleveland -2.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

Don't expect the Colts to look as bad this week as they did in an embarrassing 34-7 loss to the Texans last week. But it may not get much better very quickly. Kerry Collins is still learning the Indianapolis offense, and the Colts' offensive line is very green.

Detroit (1-0) over Kansas City (0-1)
Line: Detroit -8.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

As I said last week, these aren't the Lions you're used to seeing on your televisions. There's youth all over the place, most notably in the middle of the defense with all-world defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Kansas City coach admitted there may be "no answer" for Suh. That doesn't really bode well for KC's chances this weekend.

Green Bay (1-0) over Carolina (0-1)
Line: Green Bay -10.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Cam Newton had a magnificent NFL debut last week, but he was playing against one of the worst secondaries in the league. Newton will quickly find the big difference between Arizona's porous D and Green Bay's talent-rich defense.

Baltimore (1-0) over Tennessee (0-1)
Line: Baltimore -5.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

The Ravens have to be careful not to suffer from a hangover of last week's pummeling of the Steelers. Should they keep their heads on straight, Baltimore will be 3-0 heading into the titanic match-up with the Jets Oct. 2 on Sunday Night Football.

Tampa Bay (0-1) over Minnesota (0-1)
Line: Minnesota -3.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

So, you're telling me I'm supposed to believe the Vikings are 3.5-point favorites with Donovan McNabb, who threw for all of 39 yards last week, at the helm? I'm not buying it. The Bucs are young and hungry, and the Vikings aren't.

New York Jets (1-0) over Jacksonville (1-0)
Line: New York -10.5
Spread pick: New York

New York could line up with nine in the box every single time the Jags snap the ball on offense, and they'd still likely win by two touchdowns. Luke McCown strikes fear in no one.

Arizona (1-0) over Washington (1-0)
Line: Washington -4.5
Spread pick: Arizona

Rex Grossman is a legitimate starting quarterback? I don't follow. I'm not a believer in the Redskins just yet. The Giants defense was in shambles before last week's game, and Eli Manning is as mistake-prone as Grossman. The Cards have a much better offense than New York, and they'll get the win Sunday.

Pittsburgh (0-1) over Seattle (0-1)
Line: Pittsburgh -14.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

I wouldn't want to be playing the Steelers this week after what happened in Baltimore last Sunday. There will be plenty of motivation to bounce back, and the Seahawks are vastly over-matched. This one could get ugly.

Dallas (0-1) over San Francisco (1-0)
Line: San Francisco -2.5
Spread pick: Dallas

Tony Romo may have made a couple critical mistakes last week, but nobody is going to confuse the 49ers for the New York Jets. Look for the 'Boys to bounce back, and cover this week's most surprising line.

Denver (0-1) over Cincinnati (1-0)
Line: Denver -5.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati

If I have to stare at the computer screen to figure out which team stinks less, it's probably not a good sign for the two teams involved.

Houston (1-0) over Miami (0-1)
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

The AFC South is Houston's to lose this year, so the Texans must win games they're supposed to win. Like this one. Miami is struggling to find an offensive identity, and that starts with the anemic running game that features Reggie Bush. Something has to change if the Dolphins want to succeed in 2011.

New England (1-0) over San Diego (1-0)
Line: New England -6.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Last Monday night, the Dolphins exposed some weaknesses in New England's defense. San Diego's offense is worlds better than Miami's, so I don't buy into the Pats as a touchdown favorite. I definitely buy into Bill Belichick as a better coach than Norv Turner, though.

Philadelphia (1-0) over Atlanta (0-1)
Line: Philadelphia -2.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

There's plenty for the Falcons to work on if they want to live up to the lofty expectations bestowed upon them by so many people. They looked nothing like NFC favorites last week in Chicago, and Michael Vick's return to Atlanta may highlight more issues for the Dirty Birds to correct.

New York Giants (0-1) over St. Louis (0-1)
Line: New York -6.5
Spread pick: New York

St. Louis' starting quarterback, running back, and wide receiver may miss Monday night's contest due to injury. That's not going to do much to help the Rams' chances against the Giants.

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 11-5