NFL picks - Week Five

The pretenders have already begun falling to the pressures of October football.

Last week, we realized the "Dream Team" Eagles would be dreaming if they expect to get to the Super Bowl this year. We realized the Cowboys can't close out a game, and the Lions can. And we realized the Colts might have the best stroke of luck in recent NFL history if they win the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.

Bye weeks start this week, which means teams will have a chance to rest, get healthy, and prepare for the second half of their respective seasons. On the field, the Jets and Steelers could fall under .500, the Colts could earn their first win of the season, and the two remaining undefeated teams will play in primetime Sunday and Monday night.

We're going for this year's first Lightning Round picks column. Let's get to the picks.

Philadelphia (1-3) over Buffalo (3-1)
Line: Philadelphia -2.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Eagles are too talented to start 1-4.

Cincinnati (2-2) over Jacksonville (1-3)
Line: Jacksonville -2.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati

In the preseason picks column, I had the Bengals finishing 2-14. They may already prove me wrong.

Pittsburgh (2-2) over Tennessee (3-1)
Line: Pittsburgh -7.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

The Steelers at 2-3? Not gonna happen.

Indianapolis (0-4) over Kansas City (1-3)
Line: Indianapolis -2.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

A win puts the Colts a step back in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. Some things are good to lose, though.

Houston (3-1) over Oakland (2-2)
Line: Houston -6.5
Spread pick: Oakland

The Raiders need to get their defense in order before they start thinking about the postseason.

Arizona (1-3) over Minnesota (0-4)
Line: Minnesota -2.5
Spread pick: Arizona

Until the Vikings prove they can play a full game, they're in a ton of trouble.

New Orleans (3-1) over Carolina (1-3)
Line: New Orleans -5.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Arguably the best team in football, the Saints should handle Cam Newton and the Panthers without much of a problem.

New York Giants (3-1) over Seattle (1-3)
Line: New York -9.5
Spread pick: Seattle

How the hell are the Giants going to be 4-1? Talk about an imposter.

Tampa Bay (3-1) over San Francisco (3-1)
Line: San Francisco -1.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

Believe in the Bucs. Last year was no fluke, and neither is this year.

San Diego (3-1) over Denver (1-3)
Line: San Diego -4.5
Spread pick: San Diego

John Fox can't implement his running attack when he doesn't have a decent running back. Alabama running back Trent Richardson might want to start looking for homes in Denver.

New England (3-1) over New York Jets (2-2)
Line: New England -9.5
Spread pick: New York

If the Jets don't pull this one out, they're looking down the barrel of a tough road back to the playoffs.

Green Bay (4-0) over Atlanta (2-2)
Line: Green Bay -5.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Seemingly everyone has been singing the praises of the defending champs. Don't hand the Packers the title yet, though. They're very beatable.

Detroit (4-0) over Chicago (2-2)
Line: Detroit -5.5
Spread pick: Chicago

Ford Field will be electric for the first Monday night game in the Motor City in over a decade. That's a tough environment for any road team to win in.

Last week: 9-7
Last week v. spread: 6-10
Season record: 45-19
Season record v. spread: 36-28