NFL picks - Week Four

October is the NFL's true litmus test.

If September is the proverbial oil being poured into the water, with pretenders and contenders still mixed together to some degree, October is the settling of the two - the contenders rise to the top while the pretenders fall to the bottom.

There are three undefeated teams remaining in the league, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would have predicted the Bills and Lions would join the defending-champion Packers in that triumvirate.

Can the Bills continue their perfection in Cincinnati? Will the Lions knock off the Cowboys in Big D to remain undefeated?

Let's get to the picks.

Buffalo (3-0) over Cincinnati (1-2)
Line: Buffalo -3.5
Spread pick: Buffalo

All right, I give up on my skepticism surrounding the Bills. After their come-from-behind win over the Patriots last week, Buffalo appears to be for real, at least for now. No team has scored more points than the Bills this season, and while the Bengals defense has been strong to this point, it hasn't truly been tested.

Chicago (1-2) over Carolina (1-2)
Line: Chicago -6.5
Spread pick: Chicago

The Bears deserve a bit of a break. Their two losses are to, arguably, the two best teams in the league in Green Bay and New Orleans. And last week's phantom holding call could have changed the complexion of the game. They'll get the Panthers, who came back to reality last week after Cam Newton's back-to-back passing exhibitions. Reality, like the Bears defense, will hit the Panthers hard this Sunday.

Tennessee (2-1) over Cleveland (2-1)
Line: Cleveland -1.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

Break up the Titans. Tennessee is 2-1 with Chris Johnson playing without any effectiveness whatsoever. If Johnson gets rolling, the Titans may be this year's surprise team. Many picked Cleveland to be that surprise team, but inconsistency on both sides of the ball will once again doom the Browns.

Detroit (3-0) over Dallas (2-1)
Line: Dallas -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

Forget the talk of the Lions not facing a true test - they came from behind to beat the Buccaneers, in Tampa, on opening weekend. The Cowboys have been unimpressive all season, beating the 49ers and Redskins by a combined five points and losing a 10-point lead against the Jets. Nothing the 'Boys have done makes me think they can handle the undefeated Lions.

Minnesota (0-3) over Kansas City (0-3)
Line: Minnesota -1.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

There really isn't much of anything going right in Kansas City. The same can basically be said for the Vikings' second-half efforts this season. Fortunately for Minnesota, the Chiefs really aren't the team to bank on for a second-half comeback.

St. Louis (0-3) over Washington (2-1)
Line: St. Louis -0.5
Spread pick: St. Louis

St. Louis has certainly had a rough start to the season, but injuries have played more than a small part in that. Steven Jackson rank for nearly 60 yards last week on just 10 carries, and Sam Bradford will likely get receiver Danny Amendola back from injury. Despite what some ESPN "experts" may say, Rex Grossman is certainly not a top-10 NFL quarterback.

New Orleans (2-1) over Jacksonville (1-2)
Line: New Orleans -7.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

If the Jags can't beat the NFC South's worst team, they're surely not going to beat its best.

Philadelphia (1-2) over San Francisco (1-2)
Line: Philadelphia -6.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

There is plenty for the Dream Team Eagles to work on before they fulfill any of the lofty expectations placed upon them before the 2011 season began. The Niners are trending upwards, albeit at a very slow pace, which should provide just enough for the Eagles to get back on the right track.

Pittsburgh (2-1) over Houston (2-1)
Line: Houston -3.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

It's hard for me to believe the Texans, and not the defending AFC champions, will exit Week 4 at 3-1. Maybe the 2011 season will mark the end of the Steelers dominance, but that definitely remains to be seen. And I don't buy it.

Atlanta (1-2) over Seattle (1-2)
Line: Atlanta -4.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

Now would be a good time for the Falcons to get their stuff together. Plenty of people picked the Falcons to represent the NFC in Indianapolis this February, but they're miles away from those lofty expectations. If it doesn't happen Sunday in Seattle, it won't happen for the Falcons this year.

Arizona (1-2) over New York Giants (2-1)
Line: New York -1.5
Spread pick: Arizona

New York looked pretty good against the Eagles last week, but having Michael Vick on the sidelines didn't hurt anything. The Giants are a below-average team posing as a contender. That type of stuff gets exposed once the calendar turns to October.

Green Bay (3-0) over Denver (1-2)
Line: Green Bay -13.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

This game can be summed up in one word: Mismatch. The Broncos have no business beating the Packers, and they won't.

New England (2-1) over Oakland (2-1)
Line: New England -4.5
Spread pick: New England

Tom Brady isn't going to throw four interceptions again this week. And although the Raiders looked good in last week's victory over the Jets, comparing New England's offense to New York is a laughable offense.

San Diego (2-1) over Miami (0-3)
Line: San Diego -8.5
Spread pick: Miami

There aren't many people who will take the Dolphins to sneak a victory from the Chargers, but as the Bolts proved last week, there's plenty of work to do. San Diego is allowing its opponents to hang around in games, and that will come back to haunt the Chargers later in the season.

New York Jets (2-1) over Baltimore (2-1)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: New York

Rex Ryan knows the Ravens better than just about anyone in the league that isn't under the employ of the Baltimore Ravens organization itself. Although the Ravens won last year's meeting in New York, the Ravens have to shore up the secondary if they wish to make a deep run into the playoffs.

Tampa Bay (2-1) over Indianapolis (0-3)
Line: Tampa Bay -9.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

Indy's offense has been a complete catastrophe this year, and all signs point to Curtis Painter making his first career NFL start Monday night in Tampa. That really doesn't sound like the type of thing the Colts need to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1998.

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 9-7
Season record: 36-12
Season record v. spread: 30-18