NFL picks - Divisional playoffs

The final eight teams in the 2011 NFL playoffs may not be the best eight squads in the league, but they may provide the most entertainment.

After last weekend's relative snore-fest - only one game was decided by fewer than 17 points - we should have at least three entertaining, hotly contested games this weekend.

One thing to watch for this weekend is the annual home-team stink bomb. In each of the last six playoffs, one of the home teams has come off the bye flat and laid an unequivocal egg. A lot of fingers are pointing at the defending champs, but will the Packers respond to the criticism?

Before we get to the picks, I must atone for my arrogance. In early October, I boldly declared the ease in picking winners this season. I followed that up with four straight weeks with fewer than 10 correct picks, including one sub-.500 week. It's part of the reason I bailed on the weekly picks column. And I got lazy. So I am now saying this: It is NOT easy to pick games this year. I've learned my lesson.

Let's get to the picks.

New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Line: New Orleans -1.5

The main event of the weekend may be the first divisional game on the schedule.

New Orleans may be the hottest team in the league right now, but the 49ers do the one thing that can keep the Saints in striking distance: stop the run. Five times this season, the Saints were held to under four yards per carry. Three times, they lost. They won the other two games by a field goal. Drew Brees may be the key to the Saints' success, but as every old playoff cliche states, you have to be able to run the ball successfully in the postseason.

Does that mean the Niners will win their first playoff game since 2002? Not necessarily, but it is a stark reminder that San Francisco isn't a victim waiting to get pummeled by the superpower Saints.

The crowd at Candlestick Park will be hot. They haven't seen postseason football in San Fran in nearly a decade. There's a trip to the NFC Championship Game on the line. And the 49ers are built to win in the postseason.

The game's X-factor will be Niners quarterback Alex Smith. If he can control the game and minimize mistakes, San Francisco's season will continue. If not, the Saints will return to the NFC title game.

The Pick: New Orleans 27, San Francisco 20

Denver Broncos (9-8) at New England Patriots (13-3)

Line: New England -8.5

Tebow Time has taken over the 2011 season, and the latest stop on Denver's magical mystery tour will be Foxborough, where the high-octane offense of the New England Patriots awaits.

The line indicates a one-sided affair, but the Broncos aren't to be written off. There is only one team in the league that has a more porous defense than the Patriots (we'll get to them in a minute) and the Broncos can keep Tom Brady and company off the field by controlling the clock with the run game.

But is Denver's defense tough enough to limit the big plays of New England's second-ranked offense? That is the question the Broncos will have to answer Saturday night. There really isn't any way to completely stop Brady and the Pats from scoring, but if a team can limit the amount of time New England's offense spends on the field, the Pats can be beaten.

In the end, Denver's defense will not be enough, and ESPN will actually have to start talking about football again.

The Pick: New England 34, Denver 23

Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

Line: Baltimore -5.5

Ugh. Crap.

I spent all day Saturday rooting for the Texans, in order to send the Steelers to New England instead of Baltimore. I clearly forgot Sunday was Tebow Time.

There have been two big stories this week outside of Tebowmania, and they both revolve around the teams playing at home Sunday. Many have said and written about Baltimore's relatively open path to Indianapolis and Super Bowl XLVI. All anyone can talk about is T.J. Yates and how Baltimore's defense is going to rip the rookie apart at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon.

What about Houston's defense, which actually ranks ahead of the Ravens' vaunted D? What about Joe Flacco, and his penchant for making at least one stupid throw every game?

There are too many things people are glossing over in Sunday's first game. Baltimore succeeds when Ray Rice is successfully running all over defenses, but Houston's defense ranked fourth in the league during the regular season.

Remember that unequivocal egg I mentioned earlier? I have a bad feeling about this.

The Pick: Houston 20, Baltimore 17

New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)

Line: Green Bay -3

The road to Indianapolis and a return trip to the Super Bowl isn't an easy one.

New York always seems to give teams problems in the playoffs, and next week, either the Saints or 49ers would give the Packers all they could handle in the NFC Championship Game.

But will they get to next weekend?

The Giants run the ball well - Brandon Jacobs is one of the hardest guys in the league to tackle.

New York throws the ball well - Victor Cruz is a true playmaker, and Hakeem Nicks is a threat opposite Cruz. Eli Manning has blossomed into one of the league's elite signal-callers.

Lastly, the G-Men get after the opposing quarterback like few other teams do. Jason Pierre-Paul is a terror, and guys like Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Chris Canty and Mathias Kiwanuka make life difficult for any quarterback.

With all that said, the Giants are horrendous against the pass. It is their weakness, and Green Bay's strength. Only three teams were poorer against the pass than the Giants: New Orleans, New England ...

And Green Bay.

It's going to be an interesting afternoon at Lambeau Field Sunday.

The Pick: Green Bay 41, New York 35

Last week: 3-1
Playoff record: 3-1