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NFL picks - Divisional playoffs

2012-01-14T12:46:00.003-06:00

The final eight teams in the 2011 NFL playoffs may not be the best eight squads in the league, but they may provide the most entertainment.

After last weekend's relative snore-fest - only one game was decided by fewer than 17 points - we should have at least three entertaining, hotly contested games this weekend.

One thing to watch for this weekend is the annual home-team stink bomb. In each of the last six playoffs, one of the home teams has come off the bye flat and laid an unequivocal egg. A lot of fingers are pointing at the defending champs, but will the Packers respond to the criticism?

Before we get to the picks, I must atone for my arrogance. In early October, I boldly declared the ease in picking winners this season. I followed that up with four straight weeks with fewer than 10 correct picks, including one sub-.500 week. It's part of the reason I bailed on the weekly picks column. And I got lazy. So I am now saying this: It is NOT easy to pick games this year. I've learned my lesson.

Let's get to the picks.

New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

Line: New Orleans -1.5

The main event of the weekend may be the first divisional game on the schedule.

New Orleans may be the hottest team in the league right now, but the 49ers do the one thing that can keep the Saints in striking distance: stop the run. Five times this season, the Saints were held to under four yards per carry. Three times, they lost. They won the other two games by a field goal. Drew Brees may be the key to the Saints' success, but as every old playoff cliche states, you have to be able to run the ball successfully in the postseason.

Does that mean the Niners will win their first playoff game since 2002? Not necessarily, but it is a stark reminder that San Francisco isn't a victim waiting to get pummeled by the superpower Saints.

The crowd at Candlestick Park will be hot. They haven't seen postseason football in San Fran in nearly a decade. There's a trip to the NFC Championship Game on the line. And the 49ers are built to win in the postseason.

The game's X-factor will be Niners quarterback Alex Smith. If he can control the game and minimize mistakes, San Francisco's season will continue. If not, the Saints will return to the NFC title game.

The Pick: New Orleans 27, San Francisco 20

Denver Broncos (9-8) at New England Patriots (13-3)

Line: New England -8.5

Tebow Time has taken over the 2011 season, and the latest stop on Denver's magical mystery tour will be Foxborough, where the high-octane offense of the New England Patriots awaits.

The line indicates a one-sided affair, but the Broncos aren't to be written off. There is only one team in the league that has a more porous defense than the Patriots (we'll get to them in a minute) and the Broncos can keep Tom Brady and company off the field by controlling the clock with the run game.

But is Denver's defense tough enough to limit the big plays of New England's second-ranked offense? That is the question the Broncos will have to answer Saturday night. There really isn't any way to completely stop Brady and the Pats from scoring, but if a team can limit the amount of time New England's offense spends on the field, the Pats can be beaten.

In the end, Denver's defense will not be enough, and ESPN will actually have to start talking about football again.

The Pick: New England 34, Denver 23

Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

Line: Baltimore -5.5

Ugh. Crap.

I spent all day Saturday rooting for the Texans, in order to send the Steelers to New England instead of Baltimore. I clearly forgot Sunday was Tebow Time.

There have been two big stories this week outside of Tebowmania, and they both revolve around the teams playing at home Sunday. Many have said and written about Baltimore's relatively open path to Indianapolis and Super Bowl XLVI. All anyone can talk about is T.J. Yates and how Baltimore's defense is going to rip the rookie apart at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon.

What about Houston's defense, which actually ranks ahead of the Ravens' vaunted D? What about Joe Flacco, and his penchant for making at least one stupid throw every game?

There are too many things people are glossing over in Sunday's first game. Baltimore succeeds when Ray Rice is successfully running all over defenses, but Houston's defense ranked fourth in the league during the regular season.

Remember that unequivocal egg I mentioned earlier? I have a bad feeling about this.

The Pick: Houston 20, Baltimore 17

New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)

Line: Green Bay -3

The road to Indianapolis and a return trip to the Super Bowl isn't an easy one.

New York always seems to give teams problems in the playoffs, and next week, either the Saints or 49ers would give the Packers all they could handle in the NFC Championship Game.

But will they get to next weekend?

The Giants run the ball well - Brandon Jacobs is one of the hardest guys in the league to tackle.

New York throws the ball well - Victor Cruz is a true playmaker, and Hakeem Nicks is a threat opposite Cruz. Eli Manning has blossomed into one of the league's elite signal-callers.

Lastly, the G-Men get after the opposing quarterback like few other teams do. Jason Pierre-Paul is a terror, and guys like Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Chris Canty and Mathias Kiwanuka make life difficult for any quarterback.

With all that said, the Giants are horrendous against the pass. It is their weakness, and Green Bay's strength. Only three teams were poorer against the pass than the Giants: New Orleans, New England ...

And Green Bay.

It's going to be an interesting afternoon at Lambeau Field Sunday.

The Pick: Green Bay 41, New York 35

Last week: 3-1
Playoff record: 3-1

Playoffs?!?

2012-01-10T15:04:00.004-06:00

*coughs*

*wipes away dust*

*coughs*

Oh, there's my blog. I thought it was under here somewhere.

The last time I wrote, the Buccaneers and Chargers were 3-1, and the Broncos were 1-3. Of course, the Broncos are the only ones that made the playoffs. Makes sense.

Playoffs are the exact reason I've ended my unforgivable hiatus from the Home of the Online Jargon. After Alabama defeated LSU 21-0 in the SEC Championship ... I mean, SEC Bowl ... I mean BCS National Championship Game, ESPN boldly declared that Alabama's win left "no doubt about who is the national champion."

Really, ESPN? Don't you think Oklahoma State, which finished 12-1, defeated then-no. 4 Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl, and more importantly, won their conference, would have something to say about that?

My solution? You guessed it: playoffs. Not four teams, not eight teams, but a 12-team, single-elimination tournament that would keep the BCS standings in tact, using them for the seeding of the 12-team field.

Let's break down the ground rules. This is probably bound to get a bit confusing.

- Each of the six BCS conference champions would earn an automatic bid into the field.

- The remaining six bids would go to the next six eligible teams in the BCS standings, regardless of conference affiliation.

- The current rule which states only two teams per conference can partake in BCS bowls would be wiped from the books.

- BCS conference winners would get in to the 12-team field, but they are not guaranteed a top-six seed. Call it the Big East Rule, since the Big East winner is often ranked outside of the top 20 ... or worse.

- Any non-BCS conference team to finish in the top 12 of the BCS standings would receive an automatic bid as well. This would ensure these teams would not be booted from the field because of a lower-ranked champion from a BCS conference.

- Any team which did not win its conference cannot be seeded ahead of more than two BCS conference champions.

- First-round games would be played at the home field of the higher-seeded team. Quarterfinal games would take place at a neutral site while the semifinals and national title game would take place at BCS bowl sites.

This is what last year's playoff seeding would have looked like:

1. Auburn (SEC champion; automatic bid)
2. Oregon (Pac-10 champion; automatic bid)
3. TCU (automatic non-AQ bid)
4. Wisconsin (Big 10 champion; automatic bid)
5. Oklahoma (Big 12 champion; automatic bid)
6. Stanford (at-large)
7. Ohio State (at-large)
8. Arkansas (at-large)
9. Michigan State (at-large)
10. Boise State (automatic non-AQ bid)
11. Virginia Tech (ACC champion; automatic bid)
12. UConn (Big East champion; automatic bid)

Last year's first-round games:

(12) UConn at (5) Oklahoma - winner to face (4) Wisconsin
(11) Virginia Tech at (6) Stanford - winner to face (3) TCU
(10) Boise State at (7) Ohio State - winner to face (2) Oregon
(9) Michigan State at (8) Arkansas - winner to face (1) Auburn

While there is sure to be a dud in the first round (UConn/Oklahoma in a repeat of last year's Fiesta Bowl), there will always be some really intriguing match-ups (Boise State/Ohio State in the Horseshoe) for our viewing pleasure.

Now, to the main course. Here is what this year's playoffs would have looked like.

1. LSU (SEC champion; automatic bid)
2. Oklahoma State (Big 12 champion; automatic bid)
3. Oregon (Pac-12 champion; automatic bid)
4. Boise State (automatic non-AQ bid)
5. Wisconsin (Big 10 champion; automatic bid)
6. Alabama (at-large)
7. Stanford (at-large)
8. Arkansas (at-large)
9. Kansas State (at-large)
10. South Carolina (at-large)
11. Clemson (ACC champion; automatic bid)
12. West Virginia (Big East champion; automatic bid)

This year's first round games:

(12) West Virginia at (5) Wisconsin - winner to face (4) Boise State
(11) Clemson at (6) Alabama - winner to face (3) Oregon
(10) South Carolina at (7) Stanford - winner to face (2) Oklahoma State
(9) Kansas State at (8) Arkansas - winner to face (1) LSU

For the second year in a row, we'd have a dud (Clemson/Alabama in Tuscaloosa would probably be over by halftime) and a number of intriguing match-ups (Kansas State/Arkansas in a Cotton Bowl rematch, as well as a contrast of styles in the other two games) in the first round alone.

Then, we go deeper. How about Oregon v. Alabama on a neutral field in the quarterfinals? Or a potential Wisconsin/LSU clash in the semis? Who wouldn't want to see Oregon and Oklahoma State go point-for-point in a semifinal clash?

Student-athletes are students first, after all, and an extended season would run right into finals. To accommodate, first-round games would happen the weekend after Conference Championship Weekend (Dec. 10 for the 2011 season) with the quarterfinals taking place two weeks afterward (Dec. 24 - but, for this season, all four games would happen Dec. 22) to give students adequate time to take final exams. Semifinal games would occur over New Year's weekend, with the BCS National Championship Game remaining in tact on its current date.

Two BCS bowls would host semifinal games each year on a rotating basis. The other two bowls would have a choice from any team not selected for the playoffs or any team eliminated in the first round.

This playoff model would shrink the number of bowl-eligible teams to select from and, in turn, hopefully shrink the amount of bowls we have every year. Bowl games used to be special. Let's make them special again.

College sports fans love March Madness. Why wouldn't they love Winter Madness?

NFL picks - Week Five

2011-10-08T12:15:00.002-05:00

The pretenders have already begun falling to the pressures of October football.

Last week, we realized the "Dream Team" Eagles would be dreaming if they expect to get to the Super Bowl this year. We realized the Cowboys can't close out a game, and the Lions can. And we realized the Colts might have the best stroke of luck in recent NFL history if they win the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.

Bye weeks start this week, which means teams will have a chance to rest, get healthy, and prepare for the second half of their respective seasons. On the field, the Jets and Steelers could fall under .500, the Colts could earn their first win of the season, and the two remaining undefeated teams will play in primetime Sunday and Monday night.

We're going for this year's first Lightning Round picks column. Let's get to the picks.

Philadelphia (1-3) over Buffalo (3-1)
Line: Philadelphia -2.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Eagles are too talented to start 1-4.

Cincinnati (2-2) over Jacksonville (1-3)
Line: Jacksonville -2.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati

In the preseason picks column, I had the Bengals finishing 2-14. They may already prove me wrong.

Pittsburgh (2-2) over Tennessee (3-1)
Line: Pittsburgh -7.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

The Steelers at 2-3? Not gonna happen.

Indianapolis (0-4) over Kansas City (1-3)
Line: Indianapolis -2.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

A win puts the Colts a step back in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. Some things are good to lose, though.

Houston (3-1) over Oakland (2-2)
Line: Houston -6.5
Spread pick: Oakland

The Raiders need to get their defense in order before they start thinking about the postseason.

Arizona (1-3) over Minnesota (0-4)
Line: Minnesota -2.5
Spread pick: Arizona

Until the Vikings prove they can play a full game, they're in a ton of trouble.

New Orleans (3-1) over Carolina (1-3)
Line: New Orleans -5.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Arguably the best team in football, the Saints should handle Cam Newton and the Panthers without much of a problem.

New York Giants (3-1) over Seattle (1-3)
Line: New York -9.5
Spread pick: Seattle

How the hell are the Giants going to be 4-1? Talk about an imposter.

Tampa Bay (3-1) over San Francisco (3-1)
Line: San Francisco -1.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

Believe in the Bucs. Last year was no fluke, and neither is this year.

San Diego (3-1) over Denver (1-3)
Line: San Diego -4.5
Spread pick: San Diego

John Fox can't implement his running attack when he doesn't have a decent running back. Alabama running back Trent Richardson might want to start looking for homes in Denver.

New England (3-1) over New York Jets (2-2)
Line: New England -9.5
Spread pick: New York

If the Jets don't pull this one out, they're looking down the barrel of a tough road back to the playoffs.

Green Bay (4-0) over Atlanta (2-2)
Line: Green Bay -5.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Seemingly everyone has been singing the praises of the defending champs. Don't hand the Packers the title yet, though. They're very beatable.

Detroit (4-0) over Chicago (2-2)
Line: Detroit -5.5
Spread pick: Chicago

Ford Field will be electric for the first Monday night game in the Motor City in over a decade. That's a tough environment for any road team to win in.

Last week: 9-7
Last week v. spread: 6-10
Season record: 45-19
Season record v. spread: 36-28

NFL picks - Week Four

2011-10-01T14:49:00.002-05:00

October is the NFL's true litmus test.

If September is the proverbial oil being poured into the water, with pretenders and contenders still mixed together to some degree, October is the settling of the two - the contenders rise to the top while the pretenders fall to the bottom.

There are three undefeated teams remaining in the league, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would have predicted the Bills and Lions would join the defending-champion Packers in that triumvirate.

Can the Bills continue their perfection in Cincinnati? Will the Lions knock off the Cowboys in Big D to remain undefeated?

Let's get to the picks.

Buffalo (3-0) over Cincinnati (1-2)
Line: Buffalo -3.5
Spread pick: Buffalo

All right, I give up on my skepticism surrounding the Bills. After their come-from-behind win over the Patriots last week, Buffalo appears to be for real, at least for now. No team has scored more points than the Bills this season, and while the Bengals defense has been strong to this point, it hasn't truly been tested.

Chicago (1-2) over Carolina (1-2)
Line: Chicago -6.5
Spread pick: Chicago

The Bears deserve a bit of a break. Their two losses are to, arguably, the two best teams in the league in Green Bay and New Orleans. And last week's phantom holding call could have changed the complexion of the game. They'll get the Panthers, who came back to reality last week after Cam Newton's back-to-back passing exhibitions. Reality, like the Bears defense, will hit the Panthers hard this Sunday.

Tennessee (2-1) over Cleveland (2-1)
Line: Cleveland -1.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

Break up the Titans. Tennessee is 2-1 with Chris Johnson playing without any effectiveness whatsoever. If Johnson gets rolling, the Titans may be this year's surprise team. Many picked Cleveland to be that surprise team, but inconsistency on both sides of the ball will once again doom the Browns.

Detroit (3-0) over Dallas (2-1)
Line: Dallas -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

Forget the talk of the Lions not facing a true test - they came from behind to beat the Buccaneers, in Tampa, on opening weekend. The Cowboys have been unimpressive all season, beating the 49ers and Redskins by a combined five points and losing a 10-point lead against the Jets. Nothing the 'Boys have done makes me think they can handle the undefeated Lions.

Minnesota (0-3) over Kansas City (0-3)
Line: Minnesota -1.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

There really isn't much of anything going right in Kansas City. The same can basically be said for the Vikings' second-half efforts this season. Fortunately for Minnesota, the Chiefs really aren't the team to bank on for a second-half comeback.

St. Louis (0-3) over Washington (2-1)
Line: St. Louis -0.5
Spread pick: St. Louis

St. Louis has certainly had a rough start to the season, but injuries have played more than a small part in that. Steven Jackson rank for nearly 60 yards last week on just 10 carries, and Sam Bradford will likely get receiver Danny Amendola back from injury. Despite what some ESPN "experts" may say, Rex Grossman is certainly not a top-10 NFL quarterback.

New Orleans (2-1) over Jacksonville (1-2)
Line: New Orleans -7.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

If the Jags can't beat the NFC South's worst team, they're surely not going to beat its best.

Philadelphia (1-2) over San Francisco (1-2)
Line: Philadelphia -6.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

There is plenty for the Dream Team Eagles to work on before they fulfill any of the lofty expectations placed upon them before the 2011 season began. The Niners are trending upwards, albeit at a very slow pace, which should provide just enough for the Eagles to get back on the right track.

Pittsburgh (2-1) over Houston (2-1)
Line: Houston -3.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

It's hard for me to believe the Texans, and not the defending AFC champions, will exit Week 4 at 3-1. Maybe the 2011 season will mark the end of the Steelers dominance, but that definitely remains to be seen. And I don't buy it.

Atlanta (1-2) over Seattle (1-2)
Line: Atlanta -4.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

Now would be a good time for the Falcons to get their stuff together. Plenty of people picked the Falcons to represent the NFC in Indianapolis this February, but they're miles away from those lofty expectations. If it doesn't happen Sunday in Seattle, it won't happen for the Falcons this year.

Arizona (1-2) over New York Giants (2-1)
Line: New York -1.5
Spread pick: Arizona

New York looked pretty good against the Eagles last week, but having Michael Vick on the sidelines didn't hurt anything. The Giants are a below-average team posing as a contender. That type of stuff gets exposed once the calendar turns to October.

Green Bay (3-0) over Denver (1-2)
Line: Green Bay -13.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

This game can be summed up in one word: Mismatch. The Broncos have no business beating the Packers, and they won't.

New England (2-1) over Oakland (2-1)
Line: New England -4.5
Spread pick: New England

Tom Brady isn't going to throw four interceptions again this week. And although the Raiders looked good in last week's victory over the Jets, comparing New England's offense to New York is a laughable offense.

San Diego (2-1) over Miami (0-3)
Line: San Diego -8.5
Spread pick: Miami

There aren't many people who will take the Dolphins to sneak a victory from the Chargers, but as the Bolts proved last week, there's plenty of work to do. San Diego is allowing its opponents to hang around in games, and that will come back to haunt the Chargers later in the season.

New York Jets (2-1) over Baltimore (2-1)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: New York

Rex Ryan knows the Ravens better than just about anyone in the league that isn't under the employ of the Baltimore Ravens organization itself. Although the Ravens won last year's meeting in New York, the Ravens have to shore up the secondary if they wish to make a deep run into the playoffs.

Tampa Bay (2-1) over Indianapolis (0-3)
Line: Tampa Bay -9.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

Indy's offense has been a complete catastrophe this year, and all signs point to Curtis Painter making his first career NFL start Monday night in Tampa. That really doesn't sound like the type of thing the Colts need to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1998.

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 9-7
Season record: 36-12
Season record v. spread: 30-18

NFL picks - Week Three

2011-09-24T10:55:00.003-05:00

Where has the time gone?

It seems like just yesterday I sat at my computer writing my 2011 season preview, and here we are at Week 3 already. Impact players have fallen to serious injury, the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes are in full swing, and the weather is starting to reflect the 2011 season's complete arrival.

We live in a bizarre NFL world. The Colts are 0-2, while the Bills and Redskins are 2-0. Peyton Manning hasn't taken a snap yet this year. Andy Dalton and Alex Smith have higher passer ratings than Philip Rivers. The top two scoring defenses in the NFL belong to the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions.

It's going to be a wild ride. Let's get to the picks.

New England (2-0) over Buffalo (2-0)
Line: New England -8.5
Spread pick: New England

Buffalo's two wins have come across the catastrophe that is the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs and the Raiders, who are always in some sort of disarray. I'll believe in the 2011 Bills if they can hang with - or, dare I say, defeat - the Patriots. Until that happens, I'm not buying in to Buffalo just yet.

San Francisco (1-1) over Cincinnati (1-1)
Line: Cincinnati -2.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

I've been pleasantly surprised by the job Jim Harbaugh has done with a 49ers squad nobody will confuse with the league's most talented teams. Like Buffalo, Cincinnati hasn't done anything to impress me this year. Until they do, they're still in the running for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes they probably don't have any interest winning.

Cleveland (1-1) over Miami (0-2)
Line: Cleveland -2.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

Don't look now, but the Browns ranks sixth in the NFL in yards allowed thus far. Yes, those first two opponents (Cincinnati and a Peyton Manning-less Indianapolis) aren't going to set the world on fire, but neither are the Dolphins. A loss in Cleveland Sunday may be Tony Sparano's last as Dolphins head coach.

Tennessee (1-1) over Denver (1-1)
Line: Tennessee -6.5
Spread pick: Denver

So, the Titans lost to the Jaguars in the season opener, but controlled the Ravens last week in a 26-13 victory. Confused? Me too. Denver should be a good balancing point for the Titans, who are surprise contenders in a wide open AFC South.

Detroit (2-0) over Minnesota (0-2)
Line: Detroit -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

We'll likely find out, over the course of the next three weeks, if the Lions are for real. While they may not be undefeated when they play the Bears on Monday Night Football Oct. 10, they'll be perfect when they visit Cowboys Stadium next weekend.

New Orleans (1-1) over Houston (2-0)
Line: New Orleans -3.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Houston has allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season. That will likely change Sunday in the Big Easy, but the Texans can make a big statement by playing my Super Bowl XLVI champions close on the road.

Philadelphia (1-1) over New York Giants (1-1)
Line: Philadelphia -7.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Eagles proved one thing last week: A "Dream Team" they are not. Once Michael Vick went down, so did the rest of the Eagles. Vince Young returns this week as Vick's backup, but he really isn't much of an upgrade over Mike Kafka. On the other hand, add the Giants to the list of teams I have been completely underwhelmed by this season. Because of that, they don't win Sunday.

Carolina (0-2) over Jacksonville (1-1)
Line: Carolina -3.5
Spread pick: Carolina

Cam Newton has been lighting secondaries up so far this season, and Jacksonville simply does not have the personnel to shut down the passing attack Newton has shown he's capable of leading. In the battle of first-round picks, Newton gets the win over Blaine Gabbert and the Jags.

San Diego (1-1) over Kansas City (0-2)
Line: San Diego -14.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Expect a big day from Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Andrew Luck might want to start looking for homes in the Kansas City area. And Todd Haley better start working on his resume.

New York Jets (2-0) over Oakland (1-1)
Line: New York -3.5
Spread pick: Oakland

There are certainly signs of life in Oakland. They're certainly not coming from Al Davis, though. New York is a bit too much for the Raiders to handle, but if Oakland can continue their strong play and get a few wins outside of the division, they may be a dark horse in the AFC West.

Baltimore (1-1) over St. Louis (0-2)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

Last week's loss to the Titans was a wake-up call for the Ravens. Rare does a team with Ray Lewis on the roster lack intensity, but the leader of the Baltimore locker room won't let another flat performance happen on his watch. Injuries, and one of the best defenses in the league, will do the Rams in at home.

Tampa Bay (1-1) over Atlanta (1-1)
Line: Tampa Bay -1.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

Atlanta certainly hasn't been impressive this season, getting blown out by the Bears and coming back against the Michael Vick-less Eagles last week. If Vick stayed in the game, the Falcons would be 0-2. They'll find their second loss of the season Sunday afternoon in Tampa.

Green Bay (2-0) over Chicago (1-1)
Line: Green Bay -3.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

When the Packers visit Soldier Field, it's an even playing field, no matter how good each side is. Green Bay is frighteningly similar to New Orleans, which blew the Bears up last weekend. This one will be much closer, but the Packers appear to be a little too strong for the inconsistent Bears to handle.

Arizona (1-1) over Seattle (0-2)
Line: Arizona -3.5
Spread pick: Arizona

No quarterback. No running game. Not nearly enough defense. Things aren't looking good for the Seahawks this year. Maybe Andrew Luck will move up the coast this upcoming spring.

Pittsburgh (1-1) over Indianapolis (0-2)
Line: Pittsburgh -10.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

It's shocking just how bad the Colts are without Peyton Manning under center. Maybe Kerry Collins will come around, but he's more likely to lose his gray hair on the field than turn the Colts into a respectable side this season.

Dallas (1-1) over Washington (2-0)
Line: Dallas -6.5
Spread pick: Washington

I'll throw the Redskins a bone here, but I'm still not convinced. Last week's one-point win over the Cardinals, who consider defense an optional part of the game, isn't doing Washington any favors. As the Skins will find out Monday night, the Cowboys are nothing like the Cardinals.

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 10-6
Season record: 24-8
Season record v. spread: 21-11

NFL picks - Week Two

2011-09-17T13:36:00.002-05:00

Last week was a beautiful illustration of the highs and lows the NFL can provide.

The Buffalo Bills came out and ripped apart the defending AFC West-champion Kansas City Chiefs. Chicago quieted the critics by dominating one of the preseason NFC favorites, the Atlanta Falcons. And the Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Jets for three quarters, but the fickleness of the NFL reared its head as the Jets came back to grab the win.

For me, last Sunday was both good and bad. In what I can only describe as overdue comeuppance, the Baltimore Ravens crushed the rival Pittsburgh Steelers 35-7. But, for the second year in a row, I lost my Eliminator pick in Week One. Thank you, New York Giants.

So, for the second year in a row, my Week Two picks are without an Eliminator pick. One less thing to worry about, I suppose.

Let's get to the picks.

Oakland (1-0) over Buffalo (1-0)
Line: Buffalo -3.5
Spread pick: Oakland

Last week's blowout win over Kansas City is getting blown way out of proportion. The Chiefs were a complete catastrophe last Sunday, and it didn't help matters when All-Pro safety Eric Berry went down with a torn ACL. Let's calm down a bit before we anoint the Bills as 2011's surprise team.

New Orleans (0-1) over Chicago (1-0)
Line: New Orleans -7.5
Spread pick: Chicago

As ESPN said last week, the two best teams in the NFL may have squared off at Lambeau Field last week, and if not for a weak goal-line call by Sean Payton, the Saints may have forced overtime. The Bears looked great last week, but the Saints are certainly not the Falcons. There's just too many weapons at Drew Brees' disposal.

Cleveland (0-1) over Indianapolis (0-1)
Line: Cleveland -2.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

Don't expect the Colts to look as bad this week as they did in an embarrassing 34-7 loss to the Texans last week. But it may not get much better very quickly. Kerry Collins is still learning the Indianapolis offense, and the Colts' offensive line is very green.

Detroit (1-0) over Kansas City (0-1)
Line: Detroit -8.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

As I said last week, these aren't the Lions you're used to seeing on your televisions. There's youth all over the place, most notably in the middle of the defense with all-world defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Kansas City coach admitted there may be "no answer" for Suh. That doesn't really bode well for KC's chances this weekend.

Green Bay (1-0) over Carolina (0-1)
Line: Green Bay -10.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Cam Newton had a magnificent NFL debut last week, but he was playing against one of the worst secondaries in the league. Newton will quickly find the big difference between Arizona's porous D and Green Bay's talent-rich defense.

Baltimore (1-0) over Tennessee (0-1)
Line: Baltimore -5.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

The Ravens have to be careful not to suffer from a hangover of last week's pummeling of the Steelers. Should they keep their heads on straight, Baltimore will be 3-0 heading into the titanic match-up with the Jets Oct. 2 on Sunday Night Football.

Tampa Bay (0-1) over Minnesota (0-1)
Line: Minnesota -3.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

So, you're telling me I'm supposed to believe the Vikings are 3.5-point favorites with Donovan McNabb, who threw for all of 39 yards last week, at the helm? I'm not buying it. The Bucs are young and hungry, and the Vikings aren't.

New York Jets (1-0) over Jacksonville (1-0)
Line: New York -10.5
Spread pick: New York

New York could line up with nine in the box every single time the Jags snap the ball on offense, and they'd still likely win by two touchdowns. Luke McCown strikes fear in no one.

Arizona (1-0) over Washington (1-0)
Line: Washington -4.5
Spread pick: Arizona

Rex Grossman is a legitimate starting quarterback? I don't follow. I'm not a believer in the Redskins just yet. The Giants defense was in shambles before last week's game, and Eli Manning is as mistake-prone as Grossman. The Cards have a much better offense than New York, and they'll get the win Sunday.

Pittsburgh (0-1) over Seattle (0-1)
Line: Pittsburgh -14.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

I wouldn't want to be playing the Steelers this week after what happened in Baltimore last Sunday. There will be plenty of motivation to bounce back, and the Seahawks are vastly over-matched. This one could get ugly.

Dallas (0-1) over San Francisco (1-0)
Line: San Francisco -2.5
Spread pick: Dallas

Tony Romo may have made a couple critical mistakes last week, but nobody is going to confuse the 49ers for the New York Jets. Look for the 'Boys to bounce back, and cover this week's most surprising line.

Denver (0-1) over Cincinnati (1-0)
Line: Denver -5.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati

If I have to stare at the computer screen to figure out which team stinks less, it's probably not a good sign for the two teams involved.

Houston (1-0) over Miami (0-1)
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

The AFC South is Houston's to lose this year, so the Texans must win games they're supposed to win. Like this one. Miami is struggling to find an offensive identity, and that starts with the anemic running game that features Reggie Bush. Something has to change if the Dolphins want to succeed in 2011.

New England (1-0) over San Diego (1-0)
Line: New England -6.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Last Monday night, the Dolphins exposed some weaknesses in New England's defense. San Diego's offense is worlds better than Miami's, so I don't buy into the Pats as a touchdown favorite. I definitely buy into Bill Belichick as a better coach than Norv Turner, though.

Philadelphia (1-0) over Atlanta (0-1)
Line: Philadelphia -2.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

There's plenty for the Falcons to work on if they want to live up to the lofty expectations bestowed upon them by so many people. They looked nothing like NFC favorites last week in Chicago, and Michael Vick's return to Atlanta may highlight more issues for the Dirty Birds to correct.

New York Giants (0-1) over St. Louis (0-1)
Line: New York -6.5
Spread pick: New York

St. Louis' starting quarterback, running back, and wide receiver may miss Monday night's contest due to injury. That's not going to do much to help the Rams' chances against the Giants.

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 11-5

NFL picks - Week One

2011-09-07T20:21:00.004-05:00

In less than 24 hours, the 2011 NFL season begins when the last two Super Bowl winners clash on the west side of Green Bay.

This offseason seemed longer than most, after being inundated with constant images of lawyers and player representatives battling over squllions of dollars during the NFL lockout.

But all that is history, as the Packers begin their defense of the Vince Lombardi Trophy against the New Orleans Saints Thursday night.

My Eliminator pick returns again, after a lengthy absence. If you don't remember it from last year, you're not the only one - my Eliminator pick lost in Week One, ending my run in the competition. Thank you, San Diego Chargers.

Peyton Manning and his sideline clipboard agree: Let's get to the picks.

Green Bay over New Orleans
Line: Green Bay -4.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Green Bay has been buzzing all offseason thanks to the Pack's Super Bowl XLV victory. Lambeau will be rocking Thursday night. There's no way the Packers faithful will allow their world champions to fall on Opening Night.

Atlanta over Chicago
Line: Atlanta -2.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

Don't get used to seeing Jay Cutler competing in NFC Championship games. The success of the 2010 Bears was the product of a few lucky bounces and an easy schedule. Life will get a lot harder this year, and it starts with Matt Ryan and one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

Cleveland over Cincinnati
Line: Cleveland -4.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

The favorites in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes likely wouldn't even take the Stanford signal-caller next April, with Andy Dalton starting under center now that Carson Palmer has called it quits. A long 2011 season begins with a loss to the in-state rival Browns, who will be a team to keep an eye on this year.

Kansas City over Buffalo
Line: Kansas City -6.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

Arrowhead Stadium is one tough place to win, and nobody wants to open their season with a trip to Kansas City. Just ask the 2010 Chargers. The Chiefs won't replicate their 2010 success this season, but they're still a tough squad. Anything can happen in the wide-open AFC West.

Philadelphia over St. Louis
Line: Philadelphia -5.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Dream Team might find themselves in the same position the NBA's so-called Dream Team found themselves in this year. But that still means an excellent regular season and a deep playoff run. It all starts Sunday, when the Eagles take down the surprise 2011 NFC West champion Rams.

Detroit over Tampa Bay
Line: Tampa Bay -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

These aren't your father's Lions. Well, they're not the Lions you're used to, either. Detroit can fulfill the lofty expectations bestowed upon them if quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Jahvid Best remain healthy. There's talent everywhere in Detroit. Watch out for the Lions.

Jacksonville over Tennessee
Line: Jacksonville -3.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

That putrid odor coming from the AFC South is the Jaguars and Titans. Jacksonville made the bold decision to cut David Garrard less than a week before the season opener, while Tennessee made the bold decision to not pay Chris Johnson before training camp. Their next bold decisions will come about 10 minutes apart, in the top five of the 2012 NFL draft.

Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Line: Baltimore -2.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

The last time these two teams locked up, a phantom holding call cost the Ravens what would have been a 28-24 victory in Pittsburgh. There's a whole lot of speed under those purple jerseys now, and they haven't forgotten how last season ended.

Houston over Indianapolis
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

The last man not named Peyton Manning to start a regular season game at quarterback for the Colts is now coaching the 49ers. I was still in middle school. And the man who will start for Indy Sunday, Kerry Collins, was a few weeks away from asking for a trade out of Carolina. Good luck on Sunday, Kerry. You and your teammates will need it.

NY Giants over Washington
**Eliminator Pick**
Line: New York -3.5
Spread pick: New York

There will be plenty of bad blood flowing Sunday in the nation's capital, but will anyone outside of New York and Washington be watching? The Giants and 'Skins are set for mediocre seasons at best. It'll be especially tough on Mike Shanahan and the Redskins, who may already be requesting the mass production of Andrew Luck jerseys.

San Francisco over Seattle
Line: San Francisco -5.5
Spread pick: Seattle

Maybe Peyton Manning can watch the man he took over for in Indianapolis, Jim Harbaugh, earn his first NFL coaching victory. What else does Manning have to do Sunday?

San Diego over Minnesota
Line: San Diego -8.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

I have a Chargers problem. For four straight years, I've picked them to do well. You'd think I'd have learned from the last three years, but I haven't. Another year filled with promise could easily end in failure ... or a trip to Indianapolis next February.

Arizona over Carolina
Line: Arizona -5.5
Spread pick: Arizona

The Scam - er, Cam Newton Era begins Sunday, but it isn't going to be pretty. Instead of seeing those pro defenses for four series, you'll be seeing them for four quarters, Cam. Arizona's defense is a nice way to ease into the NFL, but the Cardinals' offense will be too much for the inexperienced Panthers defense to handle.

NY Jets over Dallas
Line: New York -4.5
Spread pick: Dallas

This won't be a Super Bowl preview, but these teams may both be in the discussion when the calendar turns at the end of the year. Will Rex Ryan continue to talk trash, or will he put his foot in his mouth once again? (Thank you, thank you. I'm here all week.) Sunday's trip to New York will be a great litmus test for the Cowboys, who will give the Eagles all they can handle in the race for the NFC East crown.

New England over Miami
Line: New England -5.5
Spread pick: New England

The Dolphins like to make trips to South Beach really tough on the Pats, especially on Monday nights. Monday night marks the beginning of what may be this New England team's final run at a Super Bowl championship, and every player on their aging roster knows it. Is it really now or never for the Pats?

Oakland over Denver
Line: Denver -0.5
Spread pick: Oakland

Would it kill the Raiders to keep a head coach for more than two and a half hours? If they had some consistency at the helm, they may actually be a threat for the playoffs this year. Retaining a head coach through the summer would likely cause Al Davis to roll in his grave, though. Such is the plight of the Oakland Raiders.

Final 2010 record: 178-89

2011 NFL picks

2011-08-28T12:23:00.005-05:00

After nearly misplacing the blog under a summer's worth of dust, I have not-so-triumphantly returned to the home of the Online Jargon for the article tens of people have been waiting for ... maybe.

That's right, it's time for the annual NFL preseason picks! Last year was an unprecedented year, as both teams I picked to play in the Super Bowl broke the Brewer Curse and had successful 2010 campaigns. Will it happen again in 2011?

This year's version of the picks will be as expansive as ever. In this year's iteration, you'll find division champions, playoff picks, post-season awards, and the newest addition to my NFL preview, the 2012 NFL draft order.

All official NFL tiebreakers were used in breaking any deadlocks. That ended up making this year's preview a much more arduous task. But it was all worth it.

Let's get to the picks.

AFC Division Champions

North: Pittsburgh - The Bengals have no chance, and the Browns are still at least a year away, so once again, the AFC North is a two-horse race. Of the two remaining horses, Pittsburgh is the fastest, by a nose. Again. I hate my life.

South: Houston - In last year's season preview, I said time would eventually catch up with Indianapolis. The clock has run out on the Colts. Houston got what it desperately needed by signing Johnathan Joseph. Wade Phillips is a much better defensive coordinator than he is a head coach, and the Texans will benefit.

East: New England - Vegas' odds-on-favorite to win the AFC is my pick to win the AFC East once again. This may be the final year of the Pats' AFC dominance, though, as age is becoming a factor for nearly every major starter in New England.

West: San Diego - Deja vu? Sure is. For the fourth straight year, I'm picking the Bolts to win the West. Kansas City caught everyone off-guard last season, but they face a very tough schedule in 2011. The Raiders will be tough, but they'd have to win more than two games out of the division to compete for the division crown.

NFC Division Champions

North: Green Bay - To be The Man, you gotta beat The Man. Right now, the Packers are "The Man." Though they didn't win the division last year, they took home a slightly more important title this past February. Aaron Rodgers will likely be an MVP candidate in 2011.

South: New Orleans - Sean Payton won't let the Saints forget how their 2010 season ended. Atlanta will take a step back this year and the Panthers are starting a rookie quarterback. Tampa Bay will be tough again this year, but their road to a division title is a difficult one.

East: Philadelphia - Dream Team or not, the Eagles are going to be good. They went 11-5 last year without all of their new faces, so there is no reason to expect anything less this year. They best watch out a big year from a division rival, though.

West: St. Louis - It won't be the second coming of The Greatest Show on Turf, but the Rams are in control of the NFC West. Being the best team in the NFC West isn't quite an accomplishment, but getting to the playoffs with a second-year quarterback will be.

Wildcard Teams
AFC: New York and Baltimore
NFC: Dallas and Atlanta

Sleepers
AFC: Cleveland
NFC: San Francisco

Tough Luck, Buddy
Everybody's NFC sleeper, the Lions, are surely a talented unit. But with a brutal schedule that includes two games against the Packers, as well as meetings with the Cowboys, Chargers, Saints and Falcons, 2011 isn't looking like Detroit's year.

The Giants, Dolphins, Chiefs and Raiders all face similar plights. Some years, you're the hammer. For those teams, they'll have to take plenty of rounds as the nail.

Life's a Breeze
Two teams that will surely benefit from a weak schedule are the Ravens and Steelers. Each team faces the lowly Bengals twice to go along with a full tour of the NFC West.

Wildcard Playoffs
New Orleans over Atlanta
Dallas over St. Louis
San Diego over Baltimore
New York over Houston

Divisional Playoffs
Green Bay over Dallas
New Orleans over Philadelphia
New York over New England
Pittsburgh over San Diego

NFC Championship
New Orleans over Green Bay

AFC Championship
New York over Pittsburgh

Super Bowl XLVI
New Orleans over New York

Postseason Awards
NFL MVP: Drew Brees
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers
Defensive Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Julio Jones
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller
Coach of the Year: Jason Garrett
Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford

2012 NFL Draft Order
1. Cincinnati (2-14)
2. Tennessee (4-12)
3. Washington (4-12)
4. Seattle (5-11)
5. Denver (5-11)
6. Carolina (5-11)*
6. Jacksonville (5-11)*
8. San Francisco (6-10)
9. Buffalo (6-10)
10. Miami (6-10)
11. Cleveland (7-9)
12. Arizona (7-9)
13. Oakland (7-9)
14. Detroit (7-9)
15. NY Giants (7-9)
16. Minnesota (8-8)
17. Kansas City (8-8)
18. Chicago (8-8)
19. Tampa Bay (9-7)
20. Indianapolis (9-7)
21. St. Louis (9-7)
22. Houston (10-6)
23. Atlanta (10-6)
24. Baltimore (11-5)
25. Dallas (11-5)
26. San Diego (11-5)
27. Philadelphia (12-4)
28. New England (13-3)
29. Pittsburgh (12-4)
30. Green Bay (12-4)
31. NY Jets (11-5)
32. New Orleans (12-4)

* pick to be determined via coin flip

LeBron James turns heel

2011-06-14T13:12:00.002-05:00

In pro wrestling, the fans are king. On rare occasions, the fans can turn a heel (wrestling jargon for bad guy) into a face (good guy) by continually cheering for him, despite his heel characteristics.

Without realizing it, NBA fans may have done the opposite to LeBron James.

After The Decision (which was a disgusting marketing ploy by ESPN and James, in tandem) fans began to turn on James.

The images of James' Cavaliers jersey being burned were emblazoned across our television sets by just about every major sports outlet in the country. If Boston's Big Three - Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce - were the good guys, Miami's Big Three - James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh - immediately became the bad guys.

Miami was easy to root against. Twelve men became villains because of the actions of one. Before the season began, 29 teams circled "vs. Miami" on their schedules. The targets were tattooed onto the Heat before their season began Oct. 26 in Boston.

The Heat didn't lose their 10th game until Jan. 12. They were always at, or near, the top of the Eastern Conference. They slayed the two biggest dragons in the way to get to the Finals.

But in the midst of it all, the dichotomy of the Heat began to shift. All the criticism began to wear on No. 6. James never wanted to be a villain, but whether he realized it or not, he was morphing into one.

What made us turn on James? Was it the way he spurned Cleveland, and the long-suffering fans, with The Decision? Was it the constant comparisons to Michael Jordan, despite the fact he never came close to His Airness? Was it because James sold off his chance at giving Jordan a run as the greatest ever by teaming up with Wade and Bosh?

Everyone who turned on James has their reasons. And most of the fans who became anti-LeBron let James know just how upset they were for every one of the 2,880 seconds the Heat were competing on the hardwood.

We, as sports fans, dehumanize pro athletes all the time. Some forget that these men and women are people, too, and we don't give them the benefit of the doubt like we would for "normal" people.

James is human, and after a while, his thick skin was likely penetrated by the jeers, the criticism, and the general vitriol of his detractors. He cracked, and instead of resisting the villainous tag, he began to accept it.

It all came to a head earlier this week, immediately after Dallas' 105-95 win to clinch the NBA championship. James hid from the criticism his performance in these Finals rightly deserved, blaming just about everyone in sight ... other than himself.

The measure of greatness is an athlete's performance on the biggest stage. We saw a superstar take his place in history during this year's Finals, but it wasn't James. It was Dirk Nowitzki, now in the argument for best power forward ever.

James hid from the spotlight he ran to last summer while making his Decision. Dwayne Wade kicked into a sixth gear, while LeBron downshifted to third. It culminated in Game 3, when the nearly unflappable Wade screamed at James in front of God and everybody. Was that the nail in James' proverbial coffin this season? Was that the point LeBron said, "All right, I've had enough?"

We'll never really know. What we will know, however, is what kind of drive James really has. What will James do to reach the level Wade reached during these Finals? Will he work to improve his game, or will he remain complacent as The Greatest That Could Have Been?

Answers will start to come this fall. Until then, LeBron's heel turn will remain one of the league's hottest off-season topics.

The end is near

2011-06-11T11:02:00.002-05:00

Since early March, NFL fans have been cloaked by darkness. Optimism was the tool of those in denial of what seemed to be a certainty with every passing day.

Now, those optimists have been rewarded. The light has finally broken through after 91 days of darkness.

Daniel Kaplan of SportsBusiness Journal reported earlier today, via Twitter, that NFL insiders are expecting the framework of a labor deal to be in place in the next two weeks. The official labor agreement would be set in motion in the weeks following, according to Kaplan.

After three months of meetings, court orders, and finger-pointing, it appears the owners and players have realized what they stand to lose if the season doesn't begin on time.

The reported chasm between NFL owners and the Players Association was in the neighborhood of $9 billion.

Let's see that again, this time in full type: nine billion dollars. In a time where many Americans struggle to make enough money to avoid living paycheck-to-paycheck, the superpowers in the most popular sport in the U.S. are arguing over an unfathomably high amount of cash.

Owners and players weren't the only ones standing to lose substantial amounts of capital if the NFL season were to be shortened, or worse, canceled.

There is no better illustration of the impact an altered NFL season would have than the city most of the people reading this reside, Green Bay, Wis.

Green Bay is, by a very wide margin, the smallest market in the NFL. Green Bay's metropolitan area was estimated at just over 300,000 in 2008. The league's next smallest market, Buffalo, N.Y., has an estimated metropolitan population of more than 1.2 million.

The economic impact Green Bay would have taken without an NFL season is astounding. The city takes in millions every year thanks to one of the league's most popular teams, the Green Bay Packers.

But with no football, businesses throughout Green Bay, and the surrounding areas, would suffer massive blows. Restaurants, hotels, airports, and department stores would be hit hard by the lack of fans traveling into town for the 10 games which are held at Lambeau Field each year.

Titletown surely isn't the only city in the league that would have been hit hard by the lack of an NFL season, but it may have been the city hit hardest.

No longer is that a concern, thankfully. Maybe the parties involved realized how petty and greedy they were being. Or maybe they realized how their greed would be affected by the lack of a season this fall.

Regardless of the reason, it looks like we will have football in September. And it all starts here, in Titletown, when the last two Super Bowl champions - the Saints and Packers - kick off the 2011 NFL season.

2011 NFL Draft - the way it SHOULD happen

2011-04-27T21:30:00.004-05:00

Every year, we're inundated with hundreds of mock drafts that speculate on what experts, pundits and anyone else with an active Internet connection thinks each team will do.

Well, I've given up mind-reading, instead opting to complete my mock draft based on team needs and logical fits. Each of these picks follows the theories of what I would do if I were running each team's draft.

As with most pieces I write, this one won't go without controversy.

Let's get to the picks.

1. Carolina – Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
The Panthers need help just about everywhere. Patrick Peterson is definitely an option here, but Dareus can affect the opposing team’s offense more by disrupting all across the trenches.

2. Denver – Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
John Fox shouldn’t waste much time pulling the trigger on this one. Peterson is no. 1 on my board, as well as many others. He could go no. 1 to Carolina, but will make Broncos faithful happy for years to come.

3. Buffalo – Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M)
Buffalo needs help rushing the passer. Bad. Miller is a stud linebacker, and a playmaker. It’s a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s defense.

4. Cincinnati – A.J. Green (WR, Georgia)
Chad Ochocinco is apparently headed out of town, and there wasn’t much to speak of outside of Ocho at the receiver position in Cincy to begin with. Maybe Green, who may be the best receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson, could entice Carson Palmer to come to training camp.

5. Arizona – Robert Quinn (DE, North Carolina)
In an ideal world, Von Miller would fall to the Cardinals. That almost certainly won’t happen, though. Quinn projects as a hybrid defensive end/linebacker, and would be a great addition to Arizona’s defense. Quinn could play linebacker in Arizona’s 3-4 sets, and put his hand down when the Cards play the 4-3.

6. Cleveland – Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
The defense has some holes, but adding a weapon like Jones gives second-year quarterback Colt McCoy a legitimate receiving threat. Don’t look now, but the Browns’ offense might be coming together.

7. San Francisco – Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
Alex Smith is not the future quarterback of the franchise, no matter what Jim Harbaugh might say. Gabbert could come in and learn Harbaugh’s system from the man who helped make Andrew Luck the likely no. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

8. Tennessee – Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
I’m not completely sold on Fairley, but presented with the options available, he probably makes the most sense. The Titans will be hoping Blaine Gabbert makes it to no. 8, but it will be hard for Gabbert to get past Cincinnati, Arizona and San Francisco.

9. Dallas – Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
There are some defensive needs in Big D, but no need may be more glaring than on the offensive line. Smith is widely considered the best tackle in the draft, and has the ability to play either side of the line.

10. Washington – Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
A lot of mocks have Amukamara slipping into the mid teens, but I don’t understand it. The Nebraska product is a top-10 talent, and the Redskins would be happy to add the likes of Amukamara to their secondary.

11. Houston – Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri)
Von Miller and one of the elite corners are who the Texans would like to nab, but Smith ends up being the pick. He’ll step in to the role DeMarcus Ware filled in Wade Phillips’ defenses when Phillips coached in Dallas.

12. Minnesota – Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)
There are some injury concerns surrounding Bowers, but Bowers led the country in sacks last season and was the nation’s top recruit coming out of high school. Bowers would team with Jared Allen to make one of the most menacing pass rush duos in the league.

13. Detroit – Anthony Castonzo (OT, Boston College)
Detroit wasn’t doing Matthew Stafford any favors with their porous offensive line last season. Castonzo is the top tackle on some boards, and could step in as a full-time starter next season after the potential departure of Jeff Backus.

14. St. Louis – Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
Recent reports have the Rams connected to Liuget, who makes a ton of sense and would be an immediate upgrade over Gary Gibson in the middle.

15. Miami – Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
There’s a reason you’ve seen Ingram going to Miami in so many mock drafts: It makes so much sense. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown may both be out of town once free agency commences, and Ingram would be a value pick for the ‘Fins.

16. Jacksonville – J.J. Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
Youth has been infused into the interior defensive line, but it’s time the Jags add some young talent to the edge. Enter Watt, who isn’t a flashy rusher, but simply makes plays.

17. New England (from Oakland) – Cameron Jordan (DE, California)
Jordan is the typical Bill Belichick player – the name of Jordan’s game is versatility. Belichick could use Jordan as a defensive end in the 4-3 schemes and stand Jordan up when in the 3-4.

18. San Diego – Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue)
San Diego’s pass rush leaves a bit to be desired, and Kerrigan could be the first step in changing that. Shawne Merriman is officially out of town, and there really isn’t much to speak of outside of that. Kerrigan can also stand up to play linebacker in the 3-4, and the Bolts are big fans of versatile players.

19. New York Giants – Nate Solder (OT, Colorado)
There have been some question marks at the tackle position recently, and Solder may actually be a bit of a steal this late in the first round. Solder could be an immediate starter in the Big Apple.

20. Tampa Bay – Akeem Ayers (LB, UCLA)
Ayers is slipping down most drafts because of his performance at the Scouting Combine in February. Forget speed – playmakers are playmakers, regardless of their 40 time. Ayers is a playmaker, and may end up being a steal for the Bucs.

21. Kansas City – Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin)
Matt Cassel was pounded last year, thanks in no small part to a below average offensive line. Carimi was once considered a top-10 pick, but the Chiefs will be glad to grab the Wisconsin road grater at no. 21.

22. Indianapolis – Derek Sherrod (OT, Mississippi State)
The Colts find themselves in a similar position to that of the Giants. Bill Polian and company will be glad to grab the last consensus first-round tackle in Sherrod, a quietly effective bookend from Mississippi State.

23. Philadelphia – Mike Pouncey (C/OG, Florida)
Andy Reid loves snatching talented blockers in the first round, and Pouncey is as talented as any prospect in this draft. Philly has had plenty of trouble on the interior offensive line, and Pouncey could be the solution to those problems.

24. New Orleans – Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa)
Will Smith is a solid defensive end, but defenses are keying on Smith and the Saints haven’t been able to provide a second threat off the edge. Clayborn won’t be an elite pass rusher, but he will give opposing offenses plenty to worry about.

25. Seattle – Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
The hometown boy might get to stay home after all. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Charlie Whitehurst will get a chance to earn the starting job, but he never said Whitehurst wouldn’t have competition. Enter Locker.

26. Baltimore – Brandon Harris (CB, Miami)
It’s been a long time since the likes of Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle roamed the corner in Baltimore. That will change with Harris, who could compete for a starting job in a Ravens defense in need of youth.

27. Atlanta – Kyle Rudolph (TE, Notre Dame)
Tony Gonzalez isn’t getting any younger, and the Falcons are in need of another weapon in the passing game to relieve some of the pressure put on Roddy White. Rudolph can learn from one of the best tight ends in NFL history, and take over when Gonzalez calls it a career.

28. New England – Danny Watkins (OG, Baylor)
At least once in each draft, the Patriots make a pick that isn’t flashy, but usually turns out to be effective. Watkins isn’t going to make headlines, but his addition will fortify an offensive line plagued by the question marks surrounding Logan Mankins’ future.

29. Chicago – Muhammed Wilkerson (DT, Temple)
The departure of Tommie Harris didn’t do anything to help Chicago’s defensive line. Wilkerson is an intriguing prospect capable of playing inside and outside of the defensive line, and may prove to be a valuable addition for the Bears.

30. New York Jets – Aaron Williams (S, Texas)
Help in the pass rush would be ideal with this pick, but there really isn’t anything special for the Jets to snag in that department at no. 30. Williams, however, is an incredibly talented safety who may flourish under Rex Ryan’s tutelage.

31. Pittsburgh – Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State)
There aren’t too many weaknesses for the AFC champs, but the offensive line is certainly one of them. Hudson comes into Pittsburgh to help fortify the line and give Ben Roethlisberger a bit of protection.

32. Green Bay – Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State)
It must be nice for the defending champs, drafting the best available player in lieu of drafting for need. Heyward actually fills both. His versatility lends itself to Dom Capers’ versatile defensive schemes, and his presence could take pressure off Clay Matthews.

NFL picks - Super Bowl XLV

2011-02-04T12:36:00.007-06:00

For the first time in my life, I can't pick a team to root for in the Super Bowl.

I've watched every Super Bowl since Super Bowl XXV, which is about as far back as I actually have memory of. Scott Norwood shanked the most famous missed field goal in Super Bowl history that night as a six-year-old future sports writer watched from Green Bay's east side. The rest, as the cliches say, is history.

In every one of the 20 games from Super Bowl XXV through last year's game, I've found someone to cheer for. Some games (Super Bowl XXXV, for example) were easier than others. But there's always been someone to cheer for.

Not this year. The two NFL franchises I hate the most, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers, take the field at Cowboys Stadium Sunday to determine the winner of the 45th annual Super Bowl.

On the bright side, Sunday's game will be a win-win situation for me. Should the Steelers win, my pre-playoffs pick to win it all would be correct. On the other hand, I picked the Packers to win it all last February.

This will be my best postseason showing, picks-wise, of my sports writing career. Will I finish the postseason 8-3 or 7-4?

Let's get to the pick.

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers (13-6) v. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4)

For the first time since the 1997 season, the Green Bay Packers are in the Super Bowl. Across the field will be the Pittsburgh Steelers, appearing in their third NFL Championship game in the past six seasons.

These teams have as many similarities as any two teams in the league, save the man under center. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is a quiet leader, the laid back California kid who is inexplicably cast in the shadow of his predecessor. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is a media staple, and his run-ins with the law are well documented.

Another similarity these teams share is their chance to bring the Vince Lombardi Trophy home with them. The Packers are listed as 2.5-point favorites, but betting lines mean little in January and February.

Who will add another accolade to an already cramped trophy case?

The Case for Green Bay

Simply put, the Packers have been the hottest team in the league since Christmas. Green Bay has tallied five straight victories, taking down the NFC's top two seeds in back-to-back weeks to earn their trip to Dallas.

Green Bay's offense and defense have shared the weight of this year's Super Bowl run.

Aaron Rodgers has one of the best sets of receivers at his disposal. Greg Jennings may be the most underrated receiver in the league. Donald Driver, who turned 36 years old earlier this week, is still someone to watch wherever he lines up. Jordy Nelson is stepping up as quite the role player, and James Jones is a downfield threat that must be accounted for.

James Starks has rushed for 263 yards in three playoff games, giving the Packers the consistent running back they've been looking for since Ryan Grant went down in the season opener.

It seems as though one of the league's best defensive units during the regular season turned it up during the postseason. Clay Matthews has been a terror, as usual. Tramon Williams quickly joined the league's elite on the corner, and Charles Woodson has been the ball hawk he's so known for. The league's second-ranked scoring defense is allowing only 17 points per contest during the playoffs.

Pittsburgh will have plenty of questions to answer. Can they account for all of the offensive talent Green Bay brings to the table? How will they handle Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson? Can the defense's age overcome Green Bay's youth?

The Case for Pittsburgh

Injuries and the four-game suspension of Ben Roethlisberger couldn't keep the Pittsburgh Steelers from winning their third AFC Championship in six years.

Many pundits wrote the Steelers off once Big Ben's suspension was handed down. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's chief rival, the Baltimore Ravens, were a Super Bowl contender in their own right. The mountain seemed too tall for the Steelers to climb.

But they did it anyway.

Pittsburgh shot out to a 3-1 start without their All-Pro starting quarterback, and went 11-3 with Big Ben under center. Like the Packers, the Steelers offense overcame multiple injuries, most notably along the offensive line, to reach Dallas.

The defense, as always, was as tough as they come in the NFL. James Harrison is a difference-maker that must be accounted for at all times. Troy Polamalu can change a game in one play. James Farrior was the captain, and leader, of the league's best scoring defense.

Good offenses can challenge the Steelers, though. Two of Pittsburgh's four losses came to the high-powered offenses of New England and New Orleans. Both teams utilized balance to take down the Steelers, and the Packers will likely look to do the same Sunday night.

The proverbial X-factor for Pittsburgh isn't on the field, though. It is head coach Mike Tomlin, who is widely regarded as one of the best game-planners and motivators in the league. He knows how to scheme against any opponent, and has put together game plans to take down the league's best since taking over in 2007.

Green Bay will also have questions to answer if they wish to win their fourth Super Bowl in team history. Can they take down Roethlisberger once they reach him? Can they establish the run against the league's best rushing defense? How will they handle Pittsburgh's outstanding front seven?

When all is said and done Sunday night, the team that can effectively move the ball both through the air and on the ground will prevail. Points will likely be at a premium, as the league's top two scoring defense will meet in the Super Bowl for the first time in more than 25 years.

The old saying goes, "Offense wins games, defense wins championships." Despite the shift in the dichotomy of the league, I still think that statement holds as true as ever.

The Pick: Pittsburgh 26, Green Bay 23

Maybe the statement needs to be amended this year. Maybe it should say, "Experience on defense wins championships."

Pittsburgh's offense has plenty of experience handling a game-changing outside linebacker and a ball-hawking defensive back, playing Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed and the Baltimore Ravens twice, and sometimes three times, each season.

One of Pittsburgh's 25 players who have Super Bowl experience is Polamalu. He is a game-changer in every sense of the term, and having a guy like that in a game against one of the league's strongest passing attacks is simply invaluable. He has affected the outcome of big games many times during his Hall-of-Fame career, and it would be no surprise to see him do it again Sunday night.

Last week: 2-0
Divisional round: 2-2
Playoff record: 7-3
Overall 2010 record: 178-88

Playoffs?!? Yes, we're talking about playoffs

2011-01-20T18:11:00.003-06:00

In what has become a rite of passage, the Bowl Championship Series once again complicated the national championship picture this winter.

The only two undefeated BCS conference champions played in the BCS National Championship Game. No. 1 Auburn defeated no. 2 Oregon 22-19, giving the Tigers their first undisputed national championship.

But that's the problem: This national title is disputed.

The undefeated TCU Horned Frogs have just as much of a claim to the national championship as Auburn does. TCU answered plenty of critics by defeating the Wisconsin Badgers in the Rose Bowl Game, shutting down arguably the hottest team in the nation in doing so.

Logic dictates Auburn and TCU should clash to determine the country's true no. 1 team. The BCS doesn't operate under rules of logic, however.

The clamoring for a playoff system seems to grow louder every year, and for those who fancy themselves fans of logic, I have the system for you.

My playoff system consists of a 10-team field, with the BCS standings remaining in place. The BCS rankings would be used as a seeding system, however, in place of the way it is used today.

BCS conference champions would earn an automatic bid into the 10-team field, should they finish in the top 20 of the final BCS standings. Call it the UConn Rule, as the Huskies would be the only team in the last four years to miss the Division I college football playoffs as a BCS conference champion.

Following the letter of the current rule on the books, any team, conference champion or not, to finish in the top four of the final BCS standings would earn an automatic bid into the playoffs.

Teams in the non-automatic qualifying conferences (i.e. WAC, Mountain West, etc.) to finish in the top 12 of the final BCS standings would also earn an automatic bid into the 10-team playoff field.

Should the final at-large bid come down to a non-conference champion from a BCS conference ranked in the top four of the final BCS standings, and a non-AQ conference team ranked 11th or 12th in the final BCS standings, the team ranked in the top four would earn the bid. This rule is in place due to the 2008 final standings, which would have seen the final at-large bid given to either fourth-ranked Alabama (a non-conference champion) and 11th-ranked TCU.

Once all the bids are sorted out, the 10 selected teams would be ranked in order of the final BCS standings. BCS conference champions ranked inside the top 10 are given precedence over at-large teams that did not win their conference. Teams to earn an automatic bid as a non-AQ school would be placed in order of their placement in the final BCS standings, in accordance with the other nine teams in the playoff.

Last year's field would have looked something like this:

1. Alabama (SEC champion)
2. Texas (Big 12 champion)
3. Cincinnati (Big East champion)
4. TCU (non-AQ auto bid)
5. Boise State (non-AQ auto bid)
6. Oregon (Pac-10 champion)
7. Ohio State (Big 10 champion)
8. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)
9. Florida (at-large bid)
10. Iowa (at-large bid)

The 2010 field would look like this:

1. Auburn (SEC champion)
2. Oregon (Pac-10 champion)
3. TCU (non-AQ auto bid)
4. Wisconsin (Big 10 champion)
5. Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)
6. Stanford (at-large bid)
7. Ohio State (at-large bid)
8. Arkansas (at-large bid)
9. Boise State (non-AQ auto bid)
10. Virginia Tech (ACC champion)

Still with me? Good. This is where it gets fun.

The field's four lowest seeds would be paired off in "play-in" games. The no. 7 team would host the no. 10 team at the no. 6 seed's campus, with the winner to play the tournament's no. 2 seed.

In 2010, Ohio State would host Virginia Tech in the first "play-in" game, with the winner to face no. 2 Oregon.

The nos. 8 and 9 seeds would clash in the same manner. This year, Arkansas would have hosted Boise State, with the winner to take on top-ranked Auburn in the quarterfinals.

All quarterfinal games would be played on the campus of the higher seed. Quarterfinal match-ups in 2010 would have been:

No. 8 Arkansas/No. 9 Boise State at No. 1 Auburn
No. 7 Ohio State/No. 10 Virginia Tech at No. 2 Oregon
No. 6 Stanford at No. 3 TCU
No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 4 Wisconsin

The tournament would be structured in such a way that, if higher seeds prevailed to the semifinals, the no. 1 team would play the no. 4 team, and the no. 3 team would play the no. 2 team.

To appease the money-hungry BCS boosters, both semifinal games would be played at existing BCS bowl sites, which could be rotated on a yearly basis. The BCS National Championship Game would exist as it does today, with the only caveat being we would have a true undisputed national champion.

Every complaint the BCS boosters have against a playoff is countered by my system.

They say: Too many games takes student-athletes away from the classroom.
My system says: The most games student-athletes would play in a bowl-type setting would be two - one more than they currently do.

They say: The regular season won't matter anymore.
My system says: Home-field advantage will be earned by a high placement in the final BCS standings, and a conference championship means an automatic bid in almost all instances.

They say: The bowl structure will be shattered.
My system says: The existing bowl structure is a joke as it is - there are way too many bowls. Cut down the number of bowls, and make the bowls important again. If a BCS bowl wants to invite the losers of the play-in games to play each other, they are more than welcome to do so.

They say (in private): We'll lose money.
My system says: You're nuts if you think you're losing money. Are you going to tell me people wouldn't pay to see BCS schools clash with other BCS schools, or the non-AQ schools so eloquently described by E. Gordon Gee as the "little sisters of the poor," to earn a trip to the biggest game of the year?

More often than not, the 10 teams in my playoff system would be the top 10 schools in the country. What more can we ask for than to see the 10 best teams in Division I college football battle it out to crown a true, undisputed national champion?

Division I (or, as it is now officially known, the Division I Bowl Subdivision) is the only NCAA-sanctioned intercollegiate sport that does not determine a national champion by means of a playoff system.

The NCAA knows full well how big March Madness gets every year. If they would open their minds, December Madness could be even more popular.

NFL picks - Divisional round

2011-01-14T16:17:00.007-06:00

The NFL is down to its elite eight, and the 2010 divisional round is brought to you by the letter R - for rematch.

All four of this weekend's games are, essentially, Round Two of games we saw during the regular season.

In Week 4, the Ravens beat the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, 17-14, at Heinz Field. That game, however, was the fourth and final game the Steelers played without Ben Roethlisberger.

Seattle was only 2-6 on the road this season, but one of those two wins came in Week 6 in Chicago. The Seahawks sacked Jay Cutler six times en route to a 23-20 victory over the Bears.

In Week 12, Atlanta played host to the Green Bay Packers. A 47-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with only nine seconds remaining in regulation gave the Falcons a 20-17 victory.

Week 13 was the one week the New York Jets would like to forget. On their annual trip to Foxborough, the rival Patriots beat the Jets in all phases of the game on their way to a 45-3 victory.

All four regular-season winners will be looking for a repeat performance this weekend. How many can accomplish the feat?

Let's get to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Line: Ranges from Pittsburgh -3 to Pittsburgh -3.5; opened at Pittsburgh -3.5

By now, you've likely heard the stats. Here they are again, in case you missed them.

Since 2003, the Ravens and Steelers have met 17 times. Combined score? 302-302. The Steelers have the edge in wins during that span, 9-8. The teams split the 2010 season series, with each team earning the win on the road. The last five games between the two teams have been decided by three points.

So, yeah. These teams are close. Closer than rice and the color white. So don't expect a blowout Saturday afternoon at Heinz Field.

The edge appears to go to Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Big Ben is 8-2 against Baltimore in his career, and the Ravens haven't beaten Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in the playoffs.

Saturday's X-factor, as it so often is in this rivalry, will be Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu. After missing the large majority of the last few weeks with a calf injury, Polamalu is listed as probable for Saturday's rubber match.

Will Polamalu be the difference again Sunday?

The Pick: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 16

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

When these two teams went down to the wire at the Georgia Dome Nov. 28, it was a showcase of two of the league's best young quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Rodgers led the Packers to a late, game-tying touchdown before Matty Ice put the Falcons in range for the game-winning field goal.

The All-Pro quarterbacks will meet again Saturday night, with one's legacy growing by earning his first trip to the NFC Championship Game.

But the difference-maker may not be either Rodgers or Ryan, but Packers rookie running back James Starks. When the Packers and Falcons met just after Thanksgiving, Rodgers was Green Bay's leading rusher, with a mere 51 yards.

A balanced attack may send the Packers back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2007. Starks ran wild in Philadelphia, gaining 123 yards on 23 carries and providing the Packers with the balance they so desperately searched for since Ryan Grant's season-ending injury.

Atlanta will counter with a rested attack, and Ryan's sterling 20-2 home record as a starter. Michael Turner was the league's third-best runner during the regular season. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will have rested legs.

Will it be balance, or rest, that prevails Saturday night?

The Pick: Atlanta 26, Green Bay 24

Seattle Seahawks (8-9) at Chicago Bears (11-5)

Line: Chicago -10; opened at Chicago -9.5

Seahawks fans at Qwest Field literally made the earth shake during Marshawn Lynch's highlight touchdown run which may have been the unofficial nail in New Orleans' coffin last weekend.

The scenery will change drastically this weekend, however. There will be no 12th Man, and air temperatures around kickoff will be around 20 degrees when the Bears welcome the NFC West champions to Solider Field Sunday afternoon.

Jay Cutler makes his first playoff start since high school, hoping to lead the Bears back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since they went to the Super Bowl in 2006.

But the Seahawks will counter with emotion and excitement. Seattle's players and coaches may be the only ones that believe the still-under-.500 Seahawks can go to harrowed Soldier Field and walk away with a victory.

When Seattle beat the Bears in early October, Chicago's offense line more resembled a sieve than a barrier of protection. Cutler was sacked six times in Seattle's 23-20 victory, and was never given a chance to get comfortable.

Cutler's comfort, and his maturity in arguably the biggest game of his young career, will be integral to Chicago's success. The Seahawks are effectively playing with nothing to lose, which makes them one of the most dangerous teams left in the playoffs.

Can Cutler lead the Bears one step closer to Dallas, or will Seattle's improbable run continue?

The Pick: Chicago 24, Seattle 14

New York Jets (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-2)

Line: Ranges from New England -8.5 to New England -9; opened at New England -9

It seems as though Rex Ryan has been talking up the final divisional round game since the minute his Jets walked off the field at Lucas Oil Stadium last weekend.

As usual, Bill Belichick and the Patriots have been (largely) silent, looking forward to the battle at Gillette Stadium rather than hyping the game in the newspapers.

The Jets will surely be motivated by the 45-3 beatdown they were handed when they last visited Foxborough, while the Patriots will almost certainly be ready to respond to the constant trash-talking Ryan and the Jets have been doing.

Quarterback play is the X-factor in this match-up. In each of the two regular-season meeting between these two teams, the quarterback who played the better game led his team to victory.

Mark Sanchez must have the best playoff game in his career to lead the Jets back to the AFC Championship Game, as Tom Brady will likely be primed and ready to take on the staunch Jets defense.

Will Brady add to his legacy, or will Sanchez begin to write his?

The Pick: New England 31, New York 23

Last week: 3-1
Playoff record: 3-1
Overall 2010 record: 174-86

Fantasy football: The jump from college to the pros

2011-01-13T19:32:00.005-06:00

Millions of football fans around the world play fantasy football from their workplace, home office and living room every year.

Some men, however, play fantasy football on gridirons across the country every Saturday. And it's by no fault of their own.

The latest high-profile fantasy superstar is Auburn quarterback Cam Newton.

Newton comes from a long line of statistical superheroes, a list that includes the likes of Akili Smith, Alex Smith and, most recently, Tim Tebow. All three of these men excelled on the field in their final collegiate season, but question marks followed them to the NFL.

We know what eventually came of Akili and Alex Smith's respective careers. The jury is still out on Tebow, who enters his second pro season whenever the 2011 NFL campaign gets underway.

Newton is the most recent graduate of Hype University, run by Chancellor Kirk Herbstreit. During Monday night's BCS national sham-pionship game, Herbstreit could barely contain himself while gushing on-air about Newton's positive attributes.

Never mind the fact that Newton threw a terrible interception and allowed Oregon to tie the game after he fumbled late in the fourth quarter. In the end, it was Newton's, and Auburn's, SEC pedigree that makes the junior quarterback one of the nation's elite and a first-round prospect in this April's NFL draft.

The problem doesn't just lie there, however. Over the past few weeks, Newton has been compared to another dual-threat quarterback who led his team to an unexpected national championship.

Vince Young.

Young has a career quarterback rating of 75.7. He's never started all 16 games in a season, and he's never thrown for more than 12 touchdowns in a season. In fact, there have been four instances in NFL history in which a quarterback has thrown for more touchdowns in a single season than Young has in his five-year career.

Young was drafted third overall in the 2006 draft, by the Tennessee Titans. He was drafted to be the franchise quarterback - much like Newton likely will be - and he has fallen well short of expectations. The cavalcade of injuries, on top of his erratic and volatile behavior, has Young on his way to free agency this offseason.

While Newton appears to be more mature than Young, is Newton to be lauded for being a Vince Young-type quarterback?

History has shown us that quarterbacks who play in a spread offense in college rarely succeed in the NFL.

The runs simply aren't there. In college, dual-threat quarterbacks can run around defensive ends and linebackers. When they reach the NFL, they have the likes of Terrell Suggs, Clay Matthews and DeMarcus Ware to contend with.

Because of their size, Newton, Tebow and Young could run through tackles while in college. Tebow tried running through a Cincinnati Bengals defender in some of his early NFL action, and was injured doing so.

When these spread quarterbacks don't have the runs afforded to them in college, they are forced to pass. Rarely are the dual-threat quarterbacks proficient in drop-back passing, which is integral to NFL success. Michael Vick may have had an MVP-type season in 2010, but as the season drew to a close, opposing defenses figured him out. Even the incredibly elusive Vick couldn't run away from his problems.

On ESPN's College Football Live, draft guru (and one of ESPN's many resident idiots) Mel Kiper, Jr., said Newton would be a project, a quarterback a team would draft to sit behind the current starter for two to three years. Why?

Because he isn't developed as a passer.

The NFL draft is a crap shoot. It's largely built around potential. Some players are slam dunks - the Lions probably knew they were getting a winner when the drafted Ndamukong Suh second overall in last year's draft.

But, as Kiper highlighted on College Football Live, it is Newton's supposed potential, or upside, that makes him such a commodity in this year's draft.

Call me crazy, but I'd rather take a player like Newton's Auburn teammate, all-world defensive tackle Nick Fairley, if I were drafting in the first half of the first round.

I'd rather have proven players on my roster instead of players with "high upside." Isn't it more important to prove your worth when there are 11 opponents standing in front of you?

Maybe this line of thinking is the reason I'm not running an NFL team. Maybe I just don't have enough "upside."

2011 BCS National Title Game - LIVE!!!

2011-01-09T23:16:00.033-06:00

It's funny how little a year changes.

This is how I started last year's live blog of the National Championship Game, verbatim: "As these words are being typed, three teams in the Division I Bowl Subdivision stand undefeated. By the time the clock strikes midnight, there will only be two, and one will be crowned national champion."

On the surface, nothing has changed in the 368 days since I typed those words. Three Division I teams are undefeated. One is from the SEC, one is from a non-AQ conference and has every right to make a claim to the national title.

Last year, the SEC team was Alabama. This year, it's Auburn. Last year, the undefeated non-AQ school was Boise State, fresh off a Fiesta Bowl victory over TCU. This year, TCU fills the role of undefeated non-AQ team, fresh off a Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin.

Just like last year, TCU, and the rest of the college football community, is left asking, "What if?"

In what has become a yearly tradition, I am coming to you live from the Pez Cave. We're fresh off a victory of our own, earned at Old Chicago earlier in the evening. Now, we're ready for some football.

7:27 p.m. - Prediction time. I'm two-for-two in pregame live blog predictions. Let's see if I can make it three in a row: Oregon 37, Auburn 31.

7:30 - Pez is still going back and forth with his annual running joke. For now, it's calling Oregon running back LaMichael James, The Michael James, a la the French usage of the prefix "la." He says he may switch it before too long.

7:34 - Bo Jackson in the house! Bo knows coin tosses!

7:35 - Pez and I have surmised that Auburn, in fact, cannot win the national championship because Auburn isn't a state and Oregon is.

7:37 - Erin Andrews is wearing those tight black pants that are so hot. I might die. She may be too hot.

7:38 - Pez says Oregon is taking the opening kickoff to the house. Let's see if he's right.

7:39 - Dude from Oregon can't keep his feet, tackled before he got to the 20. Pez is 0-for-1 on predictions.

While I typed that, Pez is rhetorically asking if Sanders, the kicker or something, is related to Barry Sanders. I tend to think Pez is headed for an all-time night tonight.

7:44 - Um, what the hell just happened? For some reason, Oregon makes a pair of idiotic decisions and it's three and out. Little did we know, Oregon actually has a punter ... and he subsequently shanks it.

7:46 - Cam Newton just got blasted from the blind side. Needless to say, Pez and I got really excited. Auburn recovers, and nearly converts a big pass play on 3rd and 17.

Another punt? What is going on here?

7:52 - In the biggest upset of the night thus far, I dropped the first "The Michael James" reference of the game. Pez wasn't far behind, though.

7:53 - Interception off the mishandled Darron Thomas pass. Oregon appears to be doing everything possible to give Auburn the early lead. Can media darling Cam Newton lead the Tigers to the game's first score?

7:57 - Cam Newton throws the ball directly to Cliff Harris. Unfortunately for Auburn, Harris plays for Oregon. The Ducks run it up the middle to enter Tigers territory for the first time tonight.

7:59 - It appears some Oregon fans are wearing ponchos while blowing beak-looking noisemakers. Someone may have forgotten to tell the Ducks fans that they're indoors.

8:01 p.m. - Oregon is finally getting a rhythm going on offense. Another first down by James leads to another middle screen and another Ducks first down. Auburn had better learn to defend the screen, or they'll be in for a long night.

8:02 - Another Darron Thomas interception. This game has been the definition of ugly thus far.

8:04 - Pez just admitted he owns a Jeff Blake jersey. He may be the only person alive who has one.

8:06 - Defense, defense, defense. Another punt. If you took the over on this game's total points (74.5, for those of you wondering what the over/under is) you're in trouble.

8:10 - Oregon is starting to get something going on offense. Now only if they could stop turning the ball over.

Meanwhile, Pez and I are thinking about moving to Oregon to meet the Ducks cheerleaderes.

8:13 - Oregon gets to the three yard line as the first quarter comes to an end. Somehow, nobody has scored yet. That may change momentarily.

End of first quarter: Oregon 0, Auburn 0

8:16 - "Darron is stopped for a loss." Brent Musberger must be tight with Darron Thomas. Nonetheless, Oregon is shut down on third and short, leading to a field goal and the game's first score.
Oregon 3, Auburn 0

8:20 - It took until the second quarter, but Pez and I have finally made our first inappropriate joke of the night. I'd be stunned if it were the last.

8:24 - Cliff Harris is called out of bounds on a second interception. Pez and I firmly believe Harris was, in fact, in bounds and has his second pick of Cam Newton in this game. We'll see if the refs concur with Pez and I.

8:27 - Pez and I just trumped the inappropriate joke from before times 10. Wildly inappropriate.

In the game, Harris' non-pick is upheld, and Kodi Burns scores on a 35-yard pass from Cam Newton.
Auburn 7, Oregon 3

8:30 - Oregon continues to make questionable calls. A pitch on the kickoff sends Oregon to their own five yard line before Darron Thomas hits Jeff Maehl for a for an 81-yard gain.

8:38 - LaMichael James is making an early case for Player of the Game honors, as he's on the receiving end of Oregon's first touchdown. The Ducks go for two, and convert, to go up by four.
Oregon 11, Auburn 7

8:42 - Pez and I are experiencing our annual lapse in attention, thinking about the cheesecake we each got at Old Chicago earlier tonight. It's happening at the end of the drive ... which won't seem to end. Dammit.

8:43 - Brent Musberger and Kirk Herbstreit are starting on the Cam Newton slurpfest. It's getting ridiculous.

8:46 - The cheesecake won't wait until the end of the drive. It's happening now. I'm thoroughly excited.

8:47 - Cam Newton was just called "unstoppable" and compared to Tim Tebow. Even if Tebow is in the NFL, Herbstreit just can't help himself.

8:49 - Oregon stops the unstoppable Cam Newton on third down. Auburn lines it up on fourth down and the unstoppable Cam Newton underthrows his wide open receiver. Fail.

8:54 - LaMichael James is responsible for more points. This time, however, it's for Auburn. James goes down in the end zone for a safety, making it a two-point game.
Oregon 11, Auburn 9

8:58 - Kirk Herbstreit has his sports confused. He first relates the game to a boxing match, then says Auburn will go for the home run. After Herbstreit's ridiculous comparison, Cam Newton hits Emory Blake for a 30-yard touchdown pass.
Auburn 16, Oregon 11

9:02 p.m. - Oregon runs the same play back-to-back, and it works both times. Oregon doing work, driving into Auburn territory.

9:04 - Never mind. Oregon promptly loses yardage, bringing up a fourth down. Naturally, the Ducks are going for it.

9:06 - Just kidding. Oregon sends on the punting unit, likely in a last-second bout of sanity by Chip Kelly. Looks like the Tigers are gonna run the half out, heading into halftime with a five-point lead.

9:11 - Someone forgot to tell Oregon the half wasn't over. Auburn has driven into Oregon territory with 11 seconds left.

9:12 - And the first half comes to a close. The no. 1 team in the nation is 30 minutes away from a national championship.

Halftime: Auburn 16, Oregon 11

9:36 - Halftime is gone, much like the aforementioned cheesecake. Good stuff. We're 30 football minutes away from crowning a national champion ... who should have to play TCU for the undisputed national championship. But I digress.

9:40 - Pez and I are lamenting poor tackling. Nobody wraps on tackles anymore.

Cam Newton hits the uber-German fullback for a huge gain. Somehow, he got past the coverage before a linebacker picked him up ... kind of.

9:48 - Cam Newton can't bring the Tigers into the end zone for a commanding lead. Instead, Auburn settles for a field goal
Auburn 19, Oregon 11

9:49 - Pez calls out LaMichael James, who promptly runs for 11 yards and a first down. I encourage Pez to continue to talk smack about the Oregon offense.

9:50 - Nick Fairley is absolutely killing the Oregon offensive line. Dude is sending his already high draft stock even higher.

9:53 - Oregon's offense is doing a fantastic job of playing like crap. Another stalled drive, another punt.

9:57 - Cam Newton just got eaten alive, then overthrew his wide open receiver. Three and out, and the Ducks will get a chance to draw even.

10:01 p.m. - We hate Budweiser products. As ESPN shows the Budweiser experience, Pez and I decide we want to see Bud products in zero-dimension programming.

10:03 - LaMichael James is on the sidelines, and Darron Thomas runs into two Auburn defenders on third down.

10:04 - Pez and I are losing it as Oregon somehow converts a busted fake punt for a first down. Great stuff.

10:04 - A great catch brings the Ducks down inside the five. Pez and I are still going crazy.

10:06 - Fourth and one. Pez and I immediately say Oregon should go for it ... and they do.

10:07 - No dice. Auburn stands tall.

10:08 - Pez openly hit on Clay Matthews, I made a comment about sex offenders, and the Allstate guy made his triumhant return. What a commercial break.

10:11 - Oregon still isn't playing sound defense. Auburn's offense is gouging the Ducks D nearly every play. Sooner or later, they'll need to make a stand.

10:13 - Only 15 minutes remain in the 2010 college football season. The Tigers are one quarter away from making it five straight national championships for the SEC.

End of third quarter: Auburn 19, Oregon 11

10:19 - Bo Jackson makes his triumphant return to the Pez Cave. Bo, apparently, knows footing, false starts, and Batman movies.

10:22 - It doesn't seem that Oregon can actually stop Auburn's offense. Auburn is doing a better job beating themselves than Oregon is stopping them. Meanwhile, Kirk Herbstreit is saying Auburn would have had a "huge gain" if the pass would have been completed. He must be watching a different game.

10:26 - Apparently, my confidence in Oregon was unfounded. Oregon is playing terribly, making stupid mistakes left and right.

10:28 - Pez and I spend a solid three minutes ripping into Oregon's offense, then they convery third and long with a huge pass play. Apparently, we can't figure out offense to save our respective lives.

10:30 - Oregon with another third-down failure. Has the Oregon punter kicked the ball this much all season?

10:36 - Auburn goes a full second past the expiration of the play clock, delay of game somehow isn't called, and Cam Newton gets the first down on 3rd and 12. I'm speechless.

10:38 - Auburn gets away with a hold right in front of the referee. Are they not calling penalties anymore?

10:41 - So, Oregon gets the ball back with less than seven minutes left in the game. In 54 football minutes, the Ducks have scored 11 points. They need eight more to force overtime.

10:44 - Darron Thomas wastes little time making a terrible throw. For throwing for almost 300 yards up to this point, Thomas has been wildly underwhelming.

10:47 - I'm fairly certian Oregon has run three or four plays the entire night. What a joke. Now, they get to run a play they've run plenty of times tonight: The punt.

10:50 - Casey Matthews makes a potentially game-changing play just like his older brother, Clay. It may have pulled Oregon back into this game.

10:53 - Darron Thomas has been a liability most of this game. Can he convert when it matters most?

10:53 - An absolutely huge play gives the Ducks possession inside the 15, while Kirk Herbstreit all but blames the referee for allowing the big play.

10:55 - Running in between the tackles just hasn't worked for Oregon. Why are they still trying?

10:57 - Hot damn! Oregon scores. The all-important two-point conversion attempt follows.

10:58 - We've got ourselves a ball game! A throwback pass ties the national title game with under three minutes remaining in regulation.
Auburn 19, Oregon 19

11:02 p.m. - Michael Dyer rattles off a huge play, which is under review after it was unclear if Dyer's leg came in contact with the ground. Pez and I say no. This is huge for Auburn.

11:10 - Instead of kicking the field goal, Auburn goes for the touchdown with 10 seconds left. Stupid. Oregon knew it was coming and stopped it cold. Two seconds remain, and the field goal unit for Auburn is on its way to the line of scrimmage.

11:12 - As time runs out, the chip-shot field goal is good and Auburn has won the BCS National Championship Game. Make it five straight for the SEC.

Final: Auburn 22, Oregon 19

11:14 - Gene Chizik says, "We are the best team in the United States of America." Really, Coach Chizik? Prove it.

Play TCU next Monday night.

NFL picks - Wildcard weekend

2011-01-07T17:50:00.005-06:00

It's a bittersweet weekend in the NFL.

For 20 NFL teams, the 2010 season is over. We won't see 62.5 percent of the league's teams play a meaningful game until the second week of September.

(Before you bring up the potential work stoppage, check out Brewing Thoughts on the right side of the screen.)

On the bright side, however, the next 11 NFL games will be the most meaningful games of the season. In that 11th game, we will crown a world champion.

Will the Saints repeat? Are Peyton Manning and the Colts the postseason threat we've grown accustomed to? Can the Jets and Packers fulfill my preseason expectations and make it to Dallas as no. 6 seeds?

In this, my first column of 2011, I will tackle this weekend's games as well as my predictions for the rest of the playoffs.

Let's get to the picks.

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Seattle Seahawks (7-9)

Line: Ranges from New Orleans -10 to New Orleans -11; opened at New Orleans -10.5

Like it or not, the Seattle Seahawks are the first team in NFL history with a chance to play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy after finishing the regular season with a sub-.500 record.

Their reward for winning the NFC West? A visit from the defending Super Bowl-champion New Orleans Saints. Yikes.

In Seattle's defense, the Seahawks are a much better team when they play at Qwest Field. Seattle's home record was level with the Saints and Chicago Bears, and was better than Philadelphia's home mark.

But we're in the postseason now. Sean Payton did a great job getting his team back to the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl last year. There is no reason to believe the Saints won't be focused on getting to Dallas for the chance to defend their world championship.

When these two teams met in New Orleans Nov. 21, the game wasn't close. The Saints blew out to a 21-6 lead, handing the Seahawks a 34-19 defeat when all was said and done.

In that game, Matt Hasselbeck, who will start Saturday's game, threw for 366 yards and a touchdown. Drew Brees, however, threw for 382 yards and four scores. The Seahawks offense will put up a fight, but as was the case just before Thanksgiving, it just won't be enough.

The Pick: New Orleans 30, Seattle 17

New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

Line: Ranges from Indianapolis -2.5 to Indianapolis -3; opened at Indianapolis -3

When these two teams met at Lucas Oil Stadium in last year's playoffs, the Colts were a powerhouse looking to return to the Super Bowl, while the Jets were a spunky bunch led by a brash first-year head coach.

Jump to the present, where the Jets are the biggest talkers in the league, while the Colts are limping (almost literally) into yet another home playoff game.

The tipping point for the Jets will be Mark Sanchez's play. If he plays smart and limits his mistakes, New York will be in the driver's seat Saturday afternoon. If Indy's pass rush can fluster Sanchez and keep Peyton Manning on the field, the Colts will be booking their flight to Pittsburgh.

When I look at this game, I see a banged up home team hosting a confident opponent that has the necessary components to win in the playoffs: Strong defense and a tough running game.

The best way to beat Peyton Manning is to keep him on the sidelines. This Jets team learned plenty from last year's unexpected playoff push. Manning is surrounded my role players who will be looked upon to carry the playoff load, something those other players haven't yet done in their careers.

The Pick: New York 24, Indianapolis 20

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

Line: Ranges from Baltimore -3 to Baltimore -3.5; opened at Baltimore -3

Another year means another road playoff game for Joe Flacco, John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens.

Last year's run started off in grand style, as the Ray Rice ran for an 83-yard touchdown on the game's opening play, as the Ravens knocked off the New England Patriots, 33-14.

After opening last year's playoffs against Matt Cassel's old team, the Ravens pay a visit to one of the most feared stadiums in the NFL, Arrowhead Stadium. When they arrive, the league's most potent rushing attack will be waiting.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will be the key for the AFC West-champion Kansas City Chiefs. The duo combined for 2,363 rushing yards this season, and was arguably the driving force behind Kansas City's surprising 2010 campaign.

The experienced Ravens defense must shut Charles and Jones down to walk out of Arrowhead Stadium victorious. Veterans like Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis must make a difference in the run game to force Cassel to attempt to beat Baltimore's sometimes questionable secondary.

If the game comes down to the match-up between Matt Cassel and Ed Reed, my money is on the future Hall-of-Famer.

The Pick: Baltimore 21, Kansas City 17

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

Line: Ranges from Philadelphia -2.5 to Philadelphia -3; opened at Philadelphia -2.5

One team's season will end where it began, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of the season opener for both clubs.

This time around, it will be Most Valuable Player candidate Michael Vick leading the Eagles against Clay Matthews and the Packers.

The final wildcard game of the season will be a clash of strengths, as the NFC's top scoring offense faces the NFC's top scoring defense. Philadelphia averaged 27.4 points per game during the regular season, while Green Bay allowed an average of 15 points per contest.

Vick must be able to handle the blitzes and schemes that have brought him back down to earth over the last few weeks in order for the Eagles to advance. If the Packers want to continue their 2010 season, they must find a consistent running game.

When Green Bay paid visit to Lincoln Financial Field in the season's opening week, they were expecting to face Kevin Kolb for four quarters, but got Vick for three. This time, they know what they're up against.

The Pick: Green Bay 27, Philadelphia 23

Week 16 record: 10-6
Week 16 record v. spread: 8-8

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 9-7

Regular season record: 171-85
Regular season record v. spread: 131-125

Now that this week's picks are out of the way, let's peer a little deeper into the crystal ball to see who will head to Dallas, and who will raise the Lombardi Trophy Feb. 6.

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons (13-3) over Green Bay Packers (11-6) - It was a close game when these two met at the Georgia Dome during the regular season, and it should be again this time around. A week to recover, and a wild Atlanta crowd, gives the Falcons the edge.

New Orleans Saints (12-5) over Chicago Bears (11-5) - Jay Cutler over the defending Super Bowl champions? I don't care if this game is in Chicago - I'm taking the champs.

AFC Divisional Playoffs

New England Patriots (14-2) over New York Jets (12-5) - The league's best offense gets a chance to rest before the hated Jets arrive at Gillette Stadium. The first go-'round didn't go too well for the Jets. It won't be a blowout, but the result will be the same.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) over Baltimore Ravens (13-4) - Troy Polamalu is a Raven killer. He did it earlier this season, and he did it the last time these teams met int the playoffs. I'm now going to break all of my fingers for typing this.

NFC Championship Game

Atlanta Falcons (14-3) over New Orleans Saints (13-5) - The ultimate rubber match. Surprisingly enough, the home team lost both times these two teams got together in the regular season. Not this time.

AFC Championship Game

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4) over New England Patriots (15-2) - When these two AFC titans clashed in Pittsburgh, the Patriots came out on top. Talk about payback.

Super Bowl XLV

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) over Atlanta Falcons (15-3) - God, I hope I'm wrong.

NFL picks - Week 16

2010-12-24T20:47:00.003-06:00

The holiday season hasn't been kind to my picks.

After six consecutive weeks of 10 or more correct picks, I've fallen back to the pack a bit. Can I break the funk this week?

In more pressing Green Bay issues, the Packers look to avoid playoff elimination when the New York Giants come to Lambeau Field for the first time since the 2007 NFC Championship Game.

On Monday night, the Falcons look to clinch the NFC South and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a victory over the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.

New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Chicago have all clinched playoff berths. Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, New Orleans and both New York teams can clinch in various scenarios this weekend.

Let's get to the picks.

Pittsburgh (10-4) over Carolina (2-12)
Line: Pittsburgh -13.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

In a game which Carolina never really had a chance, they never got close. Is anyone really surprised?

Dallas (5-9) over Arizona (4-10)
Line: Dallas -6.5
Spread pick: Dallas

Rare are the times a team has fallen from Super Bowl contender to conference doormat with the departure of one player. Such is the plight of the 2010 Arizona Cardinals after Kurt Warner hung up his cleats after last season. Arizona can start the rebuilding process early, as Ryan Mallett should be available in the top five of next April's NFL draft.

New England (12-2) over Buffalo (4-10)
Line: New England -8.5
Spread pick: Buffalo to cover

After dropping their first eight games of the season, the Bills are winners of four of their last six contests. Seriously. They're pesky, the game is in Buffalo, and the Bills would love to trip the Pats up on New England's drive for Dallas. They'll come close, but the Patriots will end up with the W.

Chicago (10-4) over New York Jets (10-4)
Line: Chicago -1.5
Spread pick: Chicago

Call me crazy, but I can't be confident in Mark Sanchez, in cold weather, on the road, against one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Bears have New York's strength covered: Chicago ranks third in the league against the run. Bear down, Chicago Bears - a first-round bye may be in the cards.

Baltimore (10-4) over Cleveland (5-9)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

Cleveland, and Peyton Hillis specifically, may have a little extra motivation after Ray Lewis essentially said Hillis' monster game in Baltimore earlier this season was a fluke. This one may stay close for a bit too long (kind of Baltimore's M.O. this year) but the Ravens will ride the momentum of last week's win to keep the pressure on the Steelers in the AFC North race.

San Francisco (5-9) over St. Louis (6-8)
Line: St. Louis -2.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

The youth in St. Louis may finally be catching up to the Rams. After a strong start, the Rams are starting to fade down the stretch. Enter the Niners, who may actually fulfill Mike Singletary's wild claim to the NFC West crown. It can't happen without a win in St. Louis Sunday. It'll be a wild week out west in the season's final week.

Detroit (4-10) over Miami (7-7)
Line: Miami -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

Miami has the league's worst home record at 1-6. Detroit is an equally putrid 1-6 on the road, but really got a kick out of winning in Florida last weekend. Why not sweep the season's Florida road trip?

Jacksonville (8-6) over Washington (5-9)
Line: Jacksonville -6.5
Spread pick: Jacksonville

Apparently, As The World Turns is filmed at Redskins Park in Ashburn, Va. The team is falling apart around first-year coach Mike Shanahan, who may very well have sent Donovan McNabb packing with the recent end-of-season benching McNabb received. Don't think the Jags will be hurt by the absence of Maurice Jones-Drew - Rashad Jennings is no slouch.

Kansas City (9-5) over Tennessee (6-8)
Line: Kansas City -5.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

The Chiefs are one of only three teams that are undefeated at home thus far in 2010. Tennessee doesn't appear to be the team that will change that trend. The Titans got a big win last week, but it came at the expense of the floundering Texans. The team that was formerly known as the Texans will get the best of Tennessee this Sunday.

Indianapolis (8-6) over Oakland (7-7)
Line: Indianapolis -3.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

Never count the Colts out unless Peyton Manning isn't the one taking the snaps. When Indy needed to win last week against the Jaguars, they came out on top. Wins over the Raiders and Chiefs get the Colts to 10-6 and another trip to the playoffs. Lose in the Black Hole, and the AFC playoffs may be strangely Colt-less.

Houston (5-9) over Denver (4-10)
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

As fast as Tim Tebow came to be the starter in Denver, he may be on his way out. Broncos great John Elway, potentially a front-office figure head for the Broncos before too long, said he'd love to see Andrew Luck under center at Mile High, should the Broncos be presented with the opportunity to draft Luck. Trouble's a-brewin' in Denver.

San Diego (8-6) over Cincinnati (3-11)
Line: San Diego -7.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Cincinnati had to hold off the Browns last week for their third win of the season. That would be fine if it were Sept. 26, not Dec. 26. The Chargers are just a little better than Cleveland ... and won't keep the Bengals close Sunday.

Tampa Bay (8-6) over Seattle (6-8)
Line: Tampa Bay -6.5
Spread pick: Seattle to cover

I keep picking the Bucs, and they keep making me regret it. Like St. Louis, the youth in Tampa may finally be catching up to Raheem Brock's team. A third-place finish in the division gives the Bucs a favorable 2011 schedule and makes them a serious dark horse candidate in the NFC.

Green Bay (8-6) over New York Giants (9-5)
Line: Green Bay -2.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

The season is on the line for the Packers Sunday afternoon. Lose, and a season full of potential is thrown away. Win, and you're in the driver's seat for an NFC wildcard spot. Despite Mike McCarthy's raging ineptitude, the Packers' defense, and the return of Aaron Rodgers, will power the Pack to the win over a Giants team that can't close the deal against good teams.

Philadelphia (10-4) over Minnesota (5-9)
Line: Philadelphia -13.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Vikings really haven't had anyone worth a damn under center all year, but a banged up Adrian Peterson makes hanging with the Eagles and Michael Vick nearly impossible. Vick has been too much for many teams this season, and the Vikings will be another team to fall victim to the 2010 NFL MVP.

New Orleans (10-4) over Atlanta (12-2)
Line: Atlanta -2.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

When I made my preseason picks, I said the road team would win each meeting in this divisional series this year. I have to stick with what I picked at the beginning of September. It's not a terrible pick, either, as the Saints and Falcons went down to the wire in the Big Easy earlier this year. Expect another close one.

Last week: 9-7
Last week v. spread: 8-8

Season record: 140-68
Season record v. spread: 109-99

NFL picks - Week 15

2010-12-17T23:27:00.002-06:00

Despite my best efforts, another year will pass with at least one quick-hit NFL picks column.

The full version returns next week. Look for my Thursday Night Football pick via Twitter (@AlwaysBrewing if you're late to the party).

Let's get to the picks.

San Diego (7-6, -8.5) over San Francisco (5-8) - SF to cover

Cleveland (5-8) over Cincinnati (2-11, -1.5)

Dallas (4-9, -6.5) over Washington (5-8)

Houston (5-8) over Tennessee (5-8, -1.5)

Indianapolis (7-6, -4.5) over Jacksonville (8-5)

St. Louis (6-7, -1.5) over Kansas City (8-5)

Miami (7-6, -5.5) over Buffalo (3-10) - Buffalo to cover

Tampa Bay (8-5, -6.5) over Detroit (3-10) - Detroit to cover

Carolina (1-12, -2.5) over Arizona (4-9)

New Orleans (10-3) over Baltimore (9-4, -2.5)

Philadelphia (9-4) over New York Giants (9-4, -2.5)

Atlanta (11-2, -6.5) over Seattle (6-7) - Seattle to cover

Pittsburgh (10-3, -6.5) over New York Jets (9-4) - NYJ to cover

Oakland (6-7, -6.5) over Denver (3-10)

New England (11-2, -10.5) over Green Bay (8-5)

Chicago (9-4, -3.5) over Minnesota (5-8)

Last week: 9-7
Last week v. spread: 5-11

Season record: 140-68
Season record v. spread: 106-102

NFL picks - Week 14

2010-12-08T20:58:00.002-06:00

If any NFL player haunts me for the rest of my football-watching days, it will be Troy Polamalu.

As he always seems to do, he was the X factor in Sunday night's clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. His strip-sack of Joe Flacco led to the Steelers' only touchdown of the game. It turned out to be the only touchdown they needed.

Things are much worse in the Big Apple, where the Jets are licking the wounds inflicted by the Patriots in a 45-3 housing on Monday Night Football. It will be interesting to see how the Jets and Ravens rebound, and how the Pats and Steelers follow up huge division wins.

Let's get to the picks.

Indianapolis (6-6) over Tennessee (5-7)
Line: Indianapolis -2.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

There are only nine teams in the NFL that the Tennessee Titans have a better pass defense than. While Peyton Manning has been out-of-character bad over the past few weeks, something tells me he'll take full advantage of a lackluster Titans pass D in prime time Thursday night.

Cleveland (5-7) over Buffalo (2-10)
Line: Buffalo -1.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

Buffalo has the worst run defense in the league. Peyton Hillis is very good. The Browns should run early and often, earning a victory that takes them within a game of the .500 mark.

Green Bay (8-4) over Detroit (2-10)
Line: Green Bay -6.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

The Packers may be the team to watch in December. After a tough road loss to the Falcons, Green Bay came out and put a hurtin' on San Francisco. Detroit may be a division rival, but the Pack may be handing out some more butt-kickings this Sunday. They better work out any kinks Sunday, though - a trip to Foxborough to meet the Patriots next Sunday night looms.

Minnesota (5-7) over New York Giants (8-4)
Line: New York -2.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

Each of the last two weeks, I've said two things: The Vikings would get hot under interim coach Leslie Frazier, and the Giants are overrated. Those two points come to a head in the Twin Cities Sunday afternoon, when the Vikings take the Giants down with a late field goal.

Pittsburgh (9-3) over Cincinnati (2-10)
Line: Pittsburgh -9.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati to cover

Don't try to figure the Bengals out. I've been trying for weeks and I've come up with nothing. They seem to play the good teams on their schedule very close, and could have had a chance to beat the Saints last week if it weren't for a bone-headed encroachment penalty late in the fourth. Cincy keeps it close, but the Steelers win.

Washington (5-7) over Tampa Bay (7-5)
Line: Tampa Bay -2.5
Spread pick: Washington

Through 13 weeks of the 2010 NFL season, the Bucs still haven't beaten a team that is even consistently average. Until they do, I have a hard time picking them to beat anyone that isn't below average.

Atlanta (10-2) over Carolina (1-11)
Line: Atlanta -7.5
Spread pick: Carolina to cover

There always seems to be a game late in the season where a putrid team gives a really good team a thorough scare. My gut says it happens this week in Charlotte. The Falcons will win, but the Panthers will give the Dirty Birds a whole lot more than they would like to handle.

Oakland (6-6) over Jacksonville (7-5)
Line: Jacksonville -4.5
Spread pick: Oakland

Both teams love to run the ball, and neither can really formulate a strong pass attack. Though they're in first place in the AFC South, I still don't buy into the Jags. I'm sticking with my preseason AFC sleeper to creep over .500 and remain in the AFC West race.

San Francisco (4-8) over Seattle (6-6)
Line: San Francisco -4.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

It's now or never for the Niners. Lose this week, and any chance of winning the NFC West is out of the question. The good news for San Francisco is that the game is at home, and the Seahawks have been wildly inconsistent on the road. Unbelievably, the 49ers will enter Week 15 at 5-8, and just one game out of first place.

New Orleans (9-3) over St. Louis (6-6)
Line: New Orleans -8.5
Spread pick: St. Louis to cover

As December rolls on, the champs are starting to make a statement. As I said earlier this season, the Saints are still the team to beat because they are the ones that have possession of the Vince Lombardi Trophy. To be the man, you gotta beat the man. New Orleans will be there in January. Will the Falcons or Packers be able to take them down?

New England (10-2) over Chicago (9-3)
Line: New England -3.5
Spread pick: New England

Ladies and gentlemen, the New England Patriots: The hottest team in professional football. The Pats put the league on notice last week, crushing the Jets at home in front of a national audience. Until further notice, they're the AFC favorite. We'll find out a lot about the Bears in this game. They'll keep it close, but not close enough.

New York Jets (9-3) over Miami (6-6)
Line: New York -6.5
Spread pick: Miami to cover

All kinds of pundits across the country are praising the Jets and Rex Ryan for their preparation after getting spanked Monday night. Maybe they'll finally stop talking and start playing. Maybe. Once again, the Jets will find themselves in a close battle, hanging on for their 10th win of the season ... barely.

Denver (3-9) over Arizona (3-9)
Line: Arizona -3.5
Spread pick: Denver

The Cardinals are awful. The Broncos are less awful. At least they have a quarterback and a decent passing game. Interim coaches are 6-1 so far this season, so why not give the Broncos the win?

San Diego (6-6) over Kansas City (8-4)
Line: San Diego -6.5
Spread pick: Kansas City to cover

Didn't the Chiefs win the first meeting between these two teams? I might be wrong. Maybe. Or maybe not. The line on this game is ridiculous. This division clash should be another good one, with the outcome just a little different. The Bolts will get a much-needed win to tighten up the AFC West race as we head into the season's final three weeks.

Philadelphia (8-4) over Dallas (4-8)
Line: Philadelphia -3.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

Give Jason Garrett credit. He's done a great since taking over as head coach in Dallas. How will he plan to stop Michael Vick, though? The Bears contained Vick, but the Cowboys defense is definitely not the Bears defense. Vick will once again be too much, sending the Cowboys to another home loss.

Baltimore (8-4) over Houston (5-7)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

Houston is a pass-heavy team, and that could cause problems for the Ravens defense. But it will be hard for the Texans to deal with Baltimore's front seven, most notably Terrell Suggs. Houston will hang around in this one, but in the end, the visiting Ravens rebound with a much-needed victory.

Last week: 11-5
Last week v. spread: 6-10

Season record: 131-61
Season record v. spread: 101-91

NFL picks - Week 13

2010-12-02T17:36:00.002-06:00

Last week, the NFC's top four teams battled for conference supremacy. This week, it's Clash of the Titans, Round Two: The AFC Edition.

The stakes may be raised this time around. Hated rivals clash in Foxborough and Baltimore, when the Jets and Steelers pay visit to their division rivals.

While the playoff race won't be decided in prime time Sunday and Monday night, the winners will have a huge advantage in securing their division title, and potentially, home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.

It will surely be an interesting weekend in the NFL. Hopefully I don't have a heart attack watching Sunday night's game.

Let's get to the picks.

Philadelphia (7-4) over Houston (5-6)
Line: Philadelphia -8.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

Promptly after I highlighted the fact that Michael Vick was undefeated as a start this season, the Bears beat Vick and the Eagles. Houston is the type of team Philly will want to rebound against, as the Texans defense leaves plenty to be desired. After an emotional week in Houston, the Texans will be too cashed to climb back to .500 Thursday night.

New Orleans (8-3) over Cincinnati (2-9)
Line: New Orleans -6.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Terrell Owens said he wants to return to Cincinnati next season. With the season he's having, it's no surprise. Unfortunately for the Bengals, T.O may be the only one in uniform having a good year. Looking for a late-season turnaround against the defending champs doesn't bode well for Cincy.

Detroit (2-9) over Chicago (8-3)
Line: Chicago -3.5
Spread pick: Detroit

Something in my gut tells me the Lions steal a win against the NFC North leaders Sunday afternoon. I keep picking against the Bears, and they keep winning. Maybe I'll learn to pick Chicago one of these days. They'll have to prove me wrong in the Motor City Sunday before I do so.

Green Bay (7-4) over San Francisco (4-7)
Line: Green Bay -9.5
Spread pick: San Francisco to cover

Frank Gore's season-ending injury may be the final nail in the coffin of a 49ers team that is somehow only a single game out of first place in the NFC West. The Niners have won three of four, but don't expect the upswing to continue in Titletown Sunday.

Tennessee (5-6) over Jacksonville (6-5)
Line: Tennessee -3.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

The importance of Kerry Collins returning to the Titans offense can't be overstated. Tennessee didn't have a fighting chance with Rusty Smith under center, and Collins can get the ball deep to Randy Moss. Sooner or later, Moss will make his arrival in a Titans uniform. I say it's this week.

Kansas City (7-4) over Denver (3-8)
Line: Kansas City -8.5
Spread pick: Denver to cover

I'm starting to believe in the Chiefs. I think. I'm 85 percent there. If Kansas City knocks off the Broncos (and effectively puts the finishing touches on Josh McDaniels' career in Denver), I'll be all in.

Miami (6-5) over Cleveland (4-7)
Line: Miami -4.5
Spread pick: Miami

Chad Henne returned to provide Miami's offense some balance in last week's win over Oakland. Brandon Marshall may be headed back to the starting lineup this Sunday, giving the Dolphins a fighting chance in the AFC playoff race.

Minnesota (4-7) over Buffalo (2-9)
Line: Minnesota -6.5
Spread pick: Buffalo to cover

Last week, I said the Vikings would rally around Leslie Frazier and string together some victories. You can't have a win streak without multiple wins. Look for Minnesota to eke one out at home and send the Bills to yet another close loss.

New York Giants (7-4) over Washington (5-6)
Line: New York -7.5
Spread pick: Washington to cover

The Giants are masquerading as a good team. There are six other teams in the NFC that are 7-4 or better, and I'm certain all six could beat the Giants more often than not. Regardless, New York gets another patsy team to pad their record with. 10-6, and a potential wildcard berth, surely isn't out of the question for the Giants.

San Diego (6-5) over Oakland (5-6)
Line: San Diego -12.5
Spread pick: Oakland to cover

Lest we forget, Oakland won the first meeting between these two teams. Forget what the Bolts did to Indy last week, because a game against the Raiders is a completely different animal. San Diego will continue its ascent to the top of the division, but it will close. Again.

Atlanta (9-2) over Tampa Bay (7-5)
Line: Atlanta -3.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

I almost picked the Bucs to win this one, but then I looked at their schedule. Tampa hasn't beaten a team currently over .500 all year. Trying to make the league's best team their first above-.500 victim isn't a high-percentage venture.

Seattle (5-6) over Carolina (1-10)
Line: Seattle -5.5
Spread pick: Carolina to cover

Do I have any rhyme or reason for picking the Panthers to cover? Not really. Will anyone outside of Seattle and Charlotte care about this game? Probably not. In fact, some fans in Charlotte may be creating Andrew Luck Panthers jerseys just to see what they might look like.

St. Louis (5-6) over Arizona (3-8)
Line: St. Louis -3.5
Spread pick: St. Louis

The excrement is violently hitting the fan in the desert. The Cards are a mess, highlighted by Derek Anderson's meltdown after Monday night's embarrassing loss to San Francisco. Don't expect things to turn around Sunday ... or possibly at all this season.

Indianapolis (6-5) over Dallas (3-8)
Line: Indianapolis -5.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

It was phenomenal watching the Colts get blown out at home last Sunday night. It won't happen this weekend, though. Dallas may have played the Saints close on Thanksgiving, but a motivated Peyton Manning is a dangerous Peyton Manning. Dallas will find that out Sunday.

Pittsburgh (8-3) over Baltimore (8-3)
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

Writing this pick actually made me vomit. OK, not really. Things seem to be falling the way of the Ravens (i.e. strong defensive play the past couple weeks, Ben Roethlisberger's leg injury, etc.) but I just can't shake the notion that a strong Steelers team won't split a season series with the Ravens. Before the season began, I said these teams would split their two regular-season meetings. Baltimore won the first. I don't flip-flop ... not until the playoffs, at least.

New England (9-2) over New York Jets (9-2)
Line: New England -3.5
Spread pick: New York to cover

Like the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, I can't see the Pats and Jets not splitting their regular-season match-ups. The Patriots may be the hotter team, with huge wins recently against the Steelers and Colts. Before last week's throttling of the Bengals, the Jets needed overtime to beat the Browns and Lions, and needed a come-from-behind effort against the Texans. Add all that to a Monday night game at Gillette Stadium, and the odds favor the Pats.

Last week: 14-2
Last week v. spread: 12-4

Season record: 120-56
Season record v. spread: 95-81

NFL picks - Week 12

2010-11-24T21:42:00.003-06:00

While most of the country will be filling themselves with exorbitant amounts of food, six NFL teams will be putting forth plenty of physical activity ... and most of the aforementioned power eaters will likely be watching those NFL teams.

The Lions and Cowboys, as usual, are in the national spotlight on Turkey Day, with the Bengals and Jets wrapping up the evening in a game more than half the country can't even see. Thank you, NFL Network.

Nonetheless, there will be plenty of jockeying in each conference's playoff race this week, and beyond. Meanwhile, the Panthers currently hold the lead in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. Can they hold their dubious lead?

Let's get to the picks.

New England (8-2) over Detroit (2-8)
Line: New England -6.5
Spread pick: New England

Forget the 2-8 record - I think the Lions have a pretty decent team. If Matthew Stafford could stay healthy, Detroit's record would likely be better than a .200 win percentage. Detroit's D-line may give the Pats some issues, but Tom Brady (at 100 percent or not) and company will just be too much.

New Orleans (7-3) over Dallas (3-7)
Line: New Orleans -3.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Somehow, the defending Super Bowl champions have been flying a bit under the radar in the NFC. I'm sure they don't mind. Keep paying attention to the Falcons, Eagles and Packers. Sooner or later, the champs are going to remind everyone that the Vince Lombardi Trophy currently resides in New Orleans. That statement may start Thursday afternoon in Dallas.

New York Jets (8-2) over Cincinnati (2-8)
Line: New York -9.5
Spread pick: New York

The Buffalo Bills scored 21 points against Cincinnati in the fourth quarter alone last week. The Buffalo Bills scored 14 points altogether against the Jets in Week 4. Advantage: J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

Atlanta (8-2) over Green Bay (7-3)
Line: Atlanta -2.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

I've been touting the Falcons as the NFC's best team since the beginning of October. I'm not going to stop now. For all of the hype Green Bay has received recently, here's a stat: Five of Green Bay's seven wins have come against sub-.500 teams. The three teams to beat them? Miami, Washington and Chicago. I'm not completely convinced the Packers can fulfill my lofty preseason prediction until they tally a trademark win. While they could get one this week, they won't.

Pittsburgh (7-3) over Buffalo (2-8)
Line: Pittsburgh -6.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Pittsburgh Steelers are not the Cincinnati Bengals. Home or not, this game may get ugly for the Bills.

Cleveland (3-7) over Carolina (1-9)
Line: Cleveland -10.5
Spread pick: Carolina to cover

The Browns are 10.5-point favorites! I love it! I'm not buying it, though. This is the same team that hasn't been able to close games for most of the season. The Brownies get the win, but they might let Carolina hang around much longer than they should.

New York Giants (6-4) over Jacksonville (6-4)
Line: New York -7.5
Spread pick: Jacksonville to cover

I love when my statements come true. For weeks, I've been blasting the Giants as a pretender. The only truly decent teams the Giants have played have handed New York a loss. Jacksonville won't leave New Meadowlands Stadium with a W, but they'll keep it close.

Minnesota (3-7) over Washington (5-5)
Line: Washington -2.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

Leslie Frazier could have been a head coach a number of times already. Now, he is one, at least on an interim basis. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings play for a coach they don't collectively despise. Call me crazy, but I think they put together a few wins, starting Sunday.

Houston (4-6) over Tennessee (5-5)
Line: Houston -6.5
Spread pick: Houston

Rookies have found some success this season. Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford have been game for most of their starts. I just don't see Rusty Smith following in the footsteps of McCoy and Bradford.

Kansas City (6-4) over Seattle (5-5)
Line: Kansas City -1.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

Seattle is a different team at home, and the Chiefs are certainly a different team on the road - all four of KC's losses have come away from Arrowhead Stadium. But my gut tells me the Chiefs hold off the Chargers in the AFC West race ... at least for this week.

Oakland (5-5) over Miami (5-5)
Line: Oakland -3.5
Spread pick: Oakland

It's going to be really tough for the Dolphins to rack up too many more wins without Chad Pennington and Chad Henne. The injury to Brandon Marshall really won't help matters either. If 2010 falls apart for Miami, 2011 will be the Dolphins' redemption.

Philadelphia (7-3) over Chicago (7-3)
Line: Philadelphia -3.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

Michael Vick has started and played an entire game five times this season. Philly's record in those games? 5-0. Until a team proves they can beat Vick for 60 minutes, I'm sticking with the team whose starting quarterback is deeply rooted in the 2010 NFL MVP discussion.

Baltimore (7-3) over Tampa Bay (7-3)
Line: Baltimore -7.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay to cover

This game concerns me. The Ravens once led the Panthers - y'know, the team with the worst record in the NFL - by a score of 20-13. In Baltimore. Yes, Baltimore tacked on 17 more points before all was said and done, but how did last week's game ever get that close? This one will be close until the end, but the Ravens need to win to carry momentum into next week's mammoth clash with the Steelers.

St. Louis (4-6) over Denver (3-7)
Line: Denver -3.5
Spread pick: St. Louis

The best way for the Rams to win this game is to use the run game to control the clock and to keep Kyle Orton and company on the sidelines. They'll do just that to keep pace in the NFC West.

San Diego (5-5) over Indianapolis (6-4)
Line: Indianapolis -3.5
Spread pick: San Diego

San Diego is starting to get a forward roll going. To aid in that positive roll, the Chargers are the only NFL team who seems to have any continued success when visiting Indianapolis. Keep that roll on, San Diego. Philip Rivers, 2010 NFL MVP?

San Francisco (3-7) over Arizona (3-7)
Line: San Francisco -1.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

What is more sad: The fact that nobody outside of Arizona and the Bay Area is going to watch this game, or that the winner of this game could enter December's slate of games just a game out of the division lead?

Last week: 11-5
Last week v. spread: 9-7

Season record: 106-54
Season record v. spread: 83-77

NFL picks - Week 11

2010-11-18T14:49:00.004-06:00

There was plenty to be learned from Week 10 of the 2010 NFL season.

We learned the Steelers aren't nearly as tough as most of the NFL thought they were. We learned that pass interference isn't actually pass interference if a flag isn't thrown. (Thank you, Roddy White.) We learned Michael Vick may be the closest thing to Tecmo Bo since Bo Jackson.

What will Week 11 teach us? We're just a few hours from finding out, at least partially.

Let's get to the picks.

Chicago (6-3) over Miami (5-4)
Line: Miami -1.5
Spread pick: Chicago

Sooner or later, injuries are going to catch up to a team. That point may have been reached for the Dolphins after Chad Pennington and Chad Henne each went down with serious injuries last week. Tyler Thigpen played well last week, but the Bears defense may be a little much for Thigpen.

Cincinnati (2-7) over Buffalo (1-8)
Line: Cincinnati -5.5
Spread pick: Buffalo to cover

The Bengals really don't play like a 2-7 team. They still play like a sub-.500 team, but not 2-7. Cincy's offense showed some promise last week, which is a very good sign. Hopefully they can keep it up against the Bills, who nearly squandered away their victory last week.

Detroit (2-7) over Dallas (2-7)
Line: Dallas -6.5
Spread pick: Detroit

Everyone who is back on the Cowboys bangwagon needs to get right back off it. I've been saying the Giants were overrated for weeks, and they proved me right last week. While Detroit's defense really isn't any better, it's not like Dallas has a stout D this year, either. This one will be close, but the Lions leave Big D winners.

Baltimore (6-3) over Carolina (1-8)
Line: Baltimore -10.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

Rarely do I take a team to cover a double-digit spread, but the Panthers are in the same boat the Dolphins are in. Injuries are starting to decimate a team that wasn't all that good to begin with. Both of Carolina's starting running backs, as well as their first- and second-string quarterbacks, are injured. The Ravens aren't the team you want to play in this type of scenario.

Cleveland (3-6) over Jacksonville (5-4)
Line: Jacksonville -1.5
Spread pick: Cleveland

Maybe there is a little of the Drew Bledsoe-Tom Brady magic working in Cleveland. While Jake Delhomme (or Seneca Wallace) isn't as good as Bledsoe, we may see a blossoming star in Colt McCoy. It's only been four games since McCoy took over under center, but the Browns are a spunky, and dangerous, team since then. McCoy may not be the next Brady, but he may be the answer the Browns have been looking for at quarterback.

Pittsburgh (6-3) over Oakland (5-4)
Line: Pittsburgh -7.5
Spread pick: Oakland to cover

As with New England last week, I can't see the Steelers coming out and getting beat at home in consecutive weeks. The Raiders are good, and may even sneak into the playoffs if the Chiefs continue to freefall and the Chargers falter. It's just going to be too tall of a task for the Raiders to walk out of Pittsburgh victorious.

Tennessee (5-4) over Washington (4-5)
Line: Tennessee -7.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

We won't see the type of hurting Michael Vick put on Washington again for a while. That includes this week, when the Redskins' defense should be especially motivated to shut down Chris Johnson, Randy Moss and the Titans. Unfortunately for the 'Skins, they won't be able to do it.

Kansas City (5-4) over Arizona (3-6)
Line: Kansas City -7.5
Spread pick: Arizona to cover

The Chiefs are starting to look like the team everyone thought they would be this year. Luckily for Todd Haley's team, the Cardinals come stumbling into town. There are issues just about everywhere on Arizona's roster, something that can't be said about the Chiefs. Advantage: Kansas City.

Green Bay (6-3) over Minnesota (3-6)
Line: Green Bay -3.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

It's funny that a supposed injury to Brett Favre's shoulder pops up in the week leading up to Green Bay's visit to the Metrodome. Favre's M.O. as of late has been excuses he's masqueraded as "nothing serious," and he'll need more excuses when his former team comes to town to sweep the season series with the Vikings.

New York Jets (7-2) over Houston (4-5)
Line: New York -6.5
Spread pick: New York

Poor Houston. September made the Texans look like a serious playoff contender. Titles aren't won in September, though. Regardless of the announced severity of Matt Schaub's bursa sac issue, it's going to negatively affect the quarterback who hasn't been playing up to his lofty standards.

Atlanta (7-2) over St. Louis (4-5)
Line: Atlanta -3.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

The road to Super Bowl XLV may be routed through Atlanta. The Falcons have three tough opponents remaining - the Packers, Saints and Bucs. Green Bay and New Orleans go to the Georgia Dome. With two games against Carolina, as well as match-ups with Seattle and St. Louis this week, Atlanta could be looking at a worst-case scenario of 11 wins.

San Francisco (3-6) over Tampa Bay (6-3)
Line: San Francisco -3.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay to cover

The AFC has the Browns, and the NFC may have the Niners ... finally. Watch out for San Francisco. Like Mike Singletary, I still believe in this team. A late field goal gives the Niners the W and keeps them in the abysmal NFC West race.

New Orleans (6-3) over Seattle (5-4)
Line: New Orleans -11.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Something tells me this game is going to get out of hand quickly. The Giants, who have a much less potent offense than New Orleans does, skunked the Seahawks out of Qwest Field. How could anyone expect the Saints not to do the same when the Seahawks travel to the Big Easy?

New England (7-2) over Indianapolis (6-3)
Line: New England -3.5
Spread pick: New England

Few statements are bigger than going into Heinz Field and beating the Steelers in all aspects of the game. That's exactly what the Patriots did last Sunday night. This Sunday, the Colts come to Foxborough, where the Pats have had their way with Indy. Stand up and take notice, AFC - the Pats are back. For now.

Philadelphia (6-3) over New York Giants (6-3)
Line: Philadelphia -3.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

Mike Vick isn't going to go all Madden 11 like he did last week against Washington, but he may be in store for another big game against a Giants defense that got shredded by the Cowboys last week. The Giants haven't beaten a truly good team all year (Chicago may be the best team New York has beaten all year) and the Eagles may be truly good.

San Diego (4-5) over Denver (3-6)
Line: San Diego -9.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Denver is second in the NFL in passing offense. Who is no. 1? San Diego. And the Chargers also rank in the top 10 in both rush and pass defense. The Broncos are 30th and 19th against the run and pass, respectively. Watch out for the Bolts. They aren't out of it yet.

Last week: 10-4
Last week v. spread: 7-7

Season record: 95-49
Season record v. spread: 74-70

NFL picks - Week 10

2010-11-10T15:47:00.003-06:00

ESPN put their version of the Brewer Curse on my Ravens earlier this week, deeming Baltimore the best team in the NFL.

Thanks, ESPN. When the Ravens are upset in their first playoff game, I'll know where to turn.

Randy Moss will look to become the first player in NFL history to catch a touchdown pass for three different teams in the same season when the Titans travel to Miami to face Miami and newly minted Dolphin Al Harris.

Let's get to the picks.

Atlanta (6-2) over Baltimore (6-2)
Line: Atlanta -1.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

Baltimore is 1-1 this season when stepping into hostile territory on the road. The Georgia Dome will be rocking Thursday night when Joe Flacco and the Ravens come to town. Matt Ryan has only one home loss in his pro career. Thursday night won't be his second.

Buffalo (0-8) over Detroit (2-6)
Line: Buffalo -2.5
Spread pick: Buffalo

Last week, I spoke of the wheels falling off for the Vikings. This week, it's another NFC North team that might see the wheels go flying off. Another Matthew Stafford injury has forced Shaun Hill, who also isn't at 100 percent, into the starting lineup against the eighth-ranked pass defense in the NFL. At long last, the Bills break through with a victory.

Minnesota (3-5) over Chicago (5-3)
Line: Minnesota -1.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

Don't look now, but the Vikings could be a game under .500 and only two behind the Packers for first place in the NFC North. With a game left against the Pack, the Vikings may not be finished in the wide open NFC playoff race.

New York Jets (6-2) over Cleveland (3-5)
Line: New York -3.5
Spread pick: Cleveland to cover

It isn't time to panic for the Jets, but they had better watch where they're walking for the immediate future. The last two weeks have brought a shutout loss at home and a game against the Lions which Detroit should have won. Cleveland is riding high after spanking the Patriots last week, and this game will be another close one.

Indianapolis (5-3) over Cincinnati (2-6)
Line: Indianapolis -7.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

According to Chad Ochocinco, every team the Bengals play is double-teaming Esteban. Maybe opponents should focus on doubling Terrell Owens instead. Will the Bengals offense work at all if T.O. isn't shredding opposing secondaries? Maybe the Colts should test the theory.

Miami (4-4) over Tennessee (5-3)
Line: Tennessee -0.5
Spread pick: Miami

Sunday's game is a big test for the Dolphins. If they really are a playoff contender, then they have to win this game. It's at home against a strong Tennessee Titans team. If the Titans and Randy Moss leave south Florida with a victory, we'll know all we need to know about the 'Fins.

Tampa Bay (5-3) over Carolina (1-7)
Line: Tampa Bay -7.5
Spread pick: Carolina to cover

I'm not comfortable with the Buccaneers being a 7.5-point favorite against anyone in the NFL, even if it's the Panthers. Jimmy Clausen is back under center, a move that may benefit the Panthers and keep this game closer than the line says it should be.

Houston (4-4) over Jacksonville (4-4)
Line: Jacksonville -1.5
Spread pick: Houston

Houston needs to win this game. If the Jags walk away with the victory, the Texans will be left in last place and sliding in the wrong direction. A win keeps the Texans in the division race, at least temporarily, and gets them a much-needed division victory. Teams hit skids on occasion - this is where the Texans rebound.

Kansas City (5-3) over Denver (2-6)
Line: Kansas City -0.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

I've posed this rhetorical question at least once this season already, but I'll do it again: Don't you have to play defense to win games? I don't know if Josh McDaniels is allergic to coaching defense, but the Broncos just don't D up. That makes winning tough ... as Denver has learned throughout 2010.

New York Giants (6-2) over Dallas (1-7)
Line: New York -13.5
Spread pick: Dallas to cover

Is Jason Garrett going to bring the discipline the Cowboys so desperately need? Can the Cowboys play for a coach they reportedly can't stand? Are the Giants the team to beat in the NFC? Will the Giants get a thorough beating when they finally play a good team again?

Seattle (4-4) over Arizona (3-5)
Line: Arizona -3.5
Spread pick: Seattle

Both teams are coming off very difficult, but very different losses. After choking away a 14-point lead in Minnesota last week, the Cardinals reiterated my belief that they just aren't a good team. Pete Carroll will get his guys up after last week's beating to leave the desert with a W.

San Francisco (2-6) over St. Louis (4-4)
Line: San Francisco -5.5
Spread pick: St. Louis to cover

How the Niners are favored by nearly a touchdown in this game is beyond me, but they could be headed in the right direction with Troy Smith under center. After years of Alex Smith, it may finally be time to pull the plug on the former no. 1 pick in favor of giving Troy Smith the reigns for the remainder of 2010 ... and possibly beyond.

New England (6-2) over Pittsburgh (6-2)
Line: Pittsburgh -4.5
Spread pick: New England

It's really hard to believe Bill Belichick is going to allow anything resembling a repeat of the 34-14 butt-kicking the Pats received in Cleveland last Sunday. Pittsburgh is a very tough team, but the loss of Max Starks may hinder an already inconsistent offense.

Philadelphia (5-3) over Washington (4-4)
Line: Philadelphia -3.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

Philly made a statement last week by taking down the Colts. Despite all the injuries in Indy, a win over the Colts is a big win. A win Monday night gives the Eagles some serious momentum heading into next Sunday night's monumental clash with the Giants.

Last week: 10-3
Last week v. spread: 9-4

Season record: 85-45
Season record v. spread: 67-63

NFL picks - Week Nine

2010-11-04T20:49:00.005-05:00

The half-way point of the 2010 NFL season has arrived.

November is here, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs, the teams that drafted third and fifth in April's draft, have set their feet in the playoff race. The media's golden child, the Dallas Cowboys, are 1-6.

It's been a strange season in the NFL this year. And it's probably going to remain that way right through Super Bowl XLV Feb. 6.

After this week's slate of games, the season is closer to its end than its beginning. That's bad news for folks in Dallas, Minnesota and Cincinnati. And we still have one more week to wait until Randy Moss makes his Tennessee Titans debut.

The wait begins. Until then, let's get to the picks.

Atlanta (5-2) over Tampa Bay (5-2)
Line: Atlanta -8.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay to cover

I'm officially a Buccaneers believer, but I don't believe they can go into the Georgia Dome and knock off the team that may be the favorite to represent the NFC in Dallas come February. An 8.5-point line is ludicrous, though - this one will be closer than expected.

Buffalo (0-7) over Chicago (4-3)
Line: Chicago -2.5
Spread pick: Buffalo

If you're the Bears, you should be concerned ... you know, outside of the cavalcade of issues Jay Cutler presents. You're 4-3, yet you're only 2.5-point favorites over the only NFL team not to win this year. After Sunday, the league will be without a winless team.

New England (6-1) over Cleveland (2-5)
Line: New England -4.5
Spread pick: New England

The Browns are a scrappy bunch. Despite being 2-5, they've shown a lot of promise on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, they're coach may be a lame duck, depending on how you look at Mike Holmgren's comments from earlier this week. The teacher, Bill Belichick, trumps the student, Eric Mangini, in Cleveland Sunday afternoon.

New York Jets (5-2) over Detroit (2-5)
Line: New York -4.5
Spread pick: Detroit to cover

Jim Schwartz is bringing some swagger to the Motor City, and with young guns like Matthew Stafford and Ndamukong Suh anchoring each side of the ball, the Lions could be on the brink of some long-awaited success. It won't happen this week, though, as the Jets defense is just a bit too much for the young Lions to handle.

Minnesota (2-5) over Arizona (3-4)
Line: Minnesota -8.5
Spread pick: Arizona to cover

I said it last week, and I'll say it again: The Arizona Cardinals are one of the least impressive teams in the NFL this season. The wheels are rattling on the Vikings season, and if they can't pull off a home victory Sunday, Brad Childress may see the door just as the wheels finally come off.

New Orleans (5-3) over Carolina (1-6)
Line: New Orleans -7.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Last week's home victory against the Steelers needs to be a motivation point for the Saints, who were teetering on a precarious position in the NFC playoff race. Time will tell us if the reported injuries to Drew Brees are as significant as some say. Sean Payton and company better hope they're not.

Baltimore (5-2) over Miami (4-3)
Line: Baltimore -5.5
Spread pick: Miami to cover

As a Ravens fan, this game worries me. A lot. Miami is a good team that could definitely go into Baltimore and leave with a victory. You have to score touchdowns to beat the 2010 Baltimore Ravens, and touchdowns have been coming at a premium for the 'Fins as of late. Field goals just won't cut it.

San Diego (3-5) over Houston (4-3)
Line: San Diego -1.5
Spread pick: San Diego

I really hate to see the Texans headed down this road. Things started so well, but then that pass defense showed up. It would take a special effort for the Texans to take down the hottest quarterback in the league, Philip Rivers.

New York Giants (5-2) over Seattle (4-4)
Line: New York -5.5
Spread pick: Seattle to cover

The Giants are really 5-2? How did everyone outside of New York miss this? Somehow, the Seahawks are a .500 team, and they'll give the G-Men a hell of a run at Qwest Field Sunday, but it won't be enough to get the W.

Oakland (4-4) over Kansas City (5-2)
Line: Oakland -2.5
Spread pick: Oakland

The Black Hole will be rockin' Sunday afternoon, as the hated Chiefs come into town to battle the red-hot Raiders. An Oakland win puts the Raiders just a half game behind the Chiefs in the division race. With Chargers gaining steam, the AFC West will surely be wild this winter.

Indianapolis (5-2) over Philadelphia (4-3)
Line: Philadelphia -2.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

How are the Eagles favored in this game? Peyton Manning only has half of his normal starting offense, and the Colts are still the same 'ol Colts. Until further notice, I'm not picking against Peyton Manning.

Green Bay (5-3) over Dallas (1-6)
Line: Green Bay -7.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Green Bay is coming off a shutout victory, on the road, over one of the league's best teams. Dallas just got shellacked, at home, by the Jaguars. How 'bout them Cowboys now?

Pittsburgh (5-2) over Cincinnati (2-5)
Line: Pittsburgh -4.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

Sooner or later, all the lucky bounces Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens and the Bengals offense have been getting lately are going to start bouncing the other way. Monday night against the Steelers defense seems like a logical turning point.

Last week: 11-2
Last week v. spread: 10-3

Season record: 75-42
Season record v. spread: 58-59

NFL picks - Week Eight

2010-10-29T18:11:00.005-05:00

I've never actually written a full picks column this close to Halloween. Maybe I'm getting more responsible in my "old" age. Maybe.

Old age hasn't stopped LaDainian Tomlinson, whose Jets return to action this week against a Packers team quickly falling apart at every possible seam.

The Brewer Curse is a devilish lady. It hasn't struck New York yet ... but there is often only one victim. Poor Packers fans.

Let's get to the picks.

Miami (3-3) over Cincinnati (2-4)
Line: Cincinnati -2.5
Spread pick: Miami

Much of the offensive success the Bengals have seen has come in garbage time. Can the Bengals actually get it done when it matters? Further, can they do it against a playoff-caliber team like the Dolphins?

Jacksonville (3-4) over Dallas (1-5)
Line: Dallas -6.5
Spread pick: Jacksonville

Dallas was a mistake-laden catastrophe with Tony Romo under center. Am I supposed to believe Jon Kitna is going to turn everything around? I'm not buying it. Wade Phillips better start printing resumes.

Detroit (1-5) over Washington (4-3)
Line: Detroit -2.5
SSpread pick: Detroit

I'm not really sure why the Lions are the favorite, with all of one win on the season. Nonetheless, Matthew Stafford returns to a sneakily dangerous Lions offense, and DeAngelo Hall likely won't have four picks again this week. Watch out for Detroit in the second half of the season.

Kansas City (4-2) over Buffalo (0-6)
Line: Kansas City -7.5
Spread pick: Buffalo to cover

I really think Buffalo can pull this game out, but it would take a hell of an effort on defense to shut down one of the better rushing attacks in the NFL. This game will be closer than the "experts" think, but the Chiefs use the run game to eke out a win.

St. Louis (3-4) over Carolina (1-6)
Line: St. Louis -3.5
Spread pick: St. Louis

Switching starting quarterbacks multiple times in one season really isn't the key to success. Unfortunately, nobody informed the Panthers of this fact. The Rams have been up and down all season, but they seem to find a way to pull it together at home. They'll do the same Sunday.

New York Jets (5-1) over Green Bay (4-3)
Line: New York -6.5
Spread pick: New York

After last week, I'm starting to wonder if Aaron Rodgers is operating under a glass ceiling. Many thought 2010 would be Rodgers' breakout year, yet he has failed to emerge as elite. Maybe the absence of a running game has hurt him. Maybe not. Things won't get any easier this week.

San Francisco (1-6) over Denver (2-5)
Line: San Francisco -0.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

To win a football game, you must play defense. As the Broncos so vividly illustrated last week, they don't play defense. Mike Singletary's futile march to the playoffs begins with a win in London.

San Diego (2-5) over Tennessee (5-2)
Line: San Diego -3.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Call me crazy, but I'm not giving up on the Chargers. They have some issues to iron out, and it's almost November, so they'd better start working quickly. All hot streaks start with a win. San Diego's could start this week.

Tampa Bay (4-2) over Arizona (3-3)
Line: Arizona -3.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

News flash: The Cardinals aren't good. The only quarterback who has played even remotely well for them got his bell rung last week. Call me crazy, but I don't have any faith in a team that is as statistically mundane as Arizona is.

New England (5-1) over Minnesota (2-4)
Line: New England -5.5
Spread pick: New England

Even before Brett Favre fractured his ankle, this game was one-sided. Now? Even worse. Bill Belichick will know better than anyone how to shut down Randy Moss. AP may make his mark, but the Pats win this one ... big.

Oakland (3-4) over Seattle (4-2)
Line: Oakland -2.5
Spread pick: Oakland

I like Oakland at home. I liked Oakland to compete in the AFC West at the beginning of the season, but they made me look silly. Hopefully they'll make me look a little less silly, starting with a win this week.

Pittsburgh (5-1) over New Orleans (4-3)
Line: New Orleans -0.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

How exactly are the Saints favored in this game when they just lost to the Browns, at home, last week? The Steelers may be the best team in the NFL, and the Saints simply won't be ready for what they'll see Sunday night.

Indianapolis (4-2) over Houston (4-2)
Line: Indianapolis -5.5
Spread pick: Houston to cover

If the Texans pull this one out, it would be their first season sweep of the Colts in franchise history. Unfortunately for Houston, winning the season series means beating the Colts at home. Banged up or not, that's a tough task.

Last week: 8-6
Last week v. spread: 6-8

Season record: 64-40
Season record v. spread: 48-56

NFL picks - Week Seven

2010-10-21T21:19:00.005-05:00

James Harrison stopped crying about his fine, Tom Brady stopped acting like he has a backbone, and I stopped feeling like my life force had been taken away ... so it must be time for Week 7 in the NFL!

I was unable to complete my Week 6 picks column due to an illness I'm still not completely over, but I'm back this week to drop some more knowledge on my loyal readers.

Despite being sick, I managed a decent week last week (I still made my picks in time) and the season has hit the second trimester strong. My bet with my former radio co-host and current roommate, Ryan Fantozzi, is tipping in my favor. Now that I mentioned it, it's likely to swing the way of the Fantozz.

Let's get to the picks.

Atlanta (4-2) over Cincinnati (2-3)
Line: Atlanta -3.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

Despite last week's gaffe against Philly, I still think the Falcons are the best team in the NFC. Meanwhile, Chad Ochocinco decided to send "gifts" to the Falcons secondary, reverting to old practices. Something tells me Mike Smith will have his team, most notably his defense, ready for Ochocinco and company Sunday.

Chicago (4-2) over Washington (3-3)
Line: Chicago -2.5
Spread pick: Chicago

Neither team has much to speak of up front. The same can be said for Washington's pass defense, which ranks next to last in the NFL. Last I checked, Cutler can still huck the ball when he's upright.

Tennessee (4-2) over Philadelphia (4-2)
Line: Tennessee -3.5
Spread pick: Philly to cover

I'm really sold on the Titans. They're playing good football across the board, with the exception of Vince Young. Chris Johnson has been sputtering of late, but will it really be much longer before CJ busts out again?

Jacksonville (3-3) over Kansas City (3-2)
Line: Kansas City -5.5
Spread pick: Jacksonville

As I've made abundantly clear over the years, sometimes I just have to go with my gut. My gut tells me the Jags eke out a win at Arrowhead. I'm not quite ready to buy the Chiefs as a playoff team, but I'm getting closer every week.

Pittsburgh (4-1) over Miami (3-2)
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

Hopefully, for Pittsburgh's sake, James Harrison stops crying in time to play Sunday. If he does, Harrison will lead a Steelers defense that will stymie Chad Henne and the Dolphins.

New Orleans (4-2) over Cleveland (1-5)
Line: New Orleans -13.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

If the Browns defense thought Pittsburgh's offense was good, wait until they see Drew Brees and company.

St. Louis (3-3) over Tampa Bay (3-2)
Line: Tampa Bay -2.5
Spread pick" St. Louis

What was the over/under for combined wins for this game before the season started? 1.5? Regardless, both teams are playing well and are shockingly in the division race heading into this week. Unfortunately for the Bucs, their division is just a wee bit tougher than St. Louis'.

San Francisco (1-5) over Carolina (0-5)
Line: San Francisco -3.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

News flash for the Panthers: Replacing your starting quarterback isn't the problem. It's your offense. And defense. And special teams ... except John Kasay. He's pretty good.

Baltimore (4-2) over Buffalo (0-5)
Line: Baltimore -13.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

One of the league's worst teams faces one of the league's best. There's no good reason Baltimore should lose this game. Please, John Harbaugh, don't give me a heart attack Sunday.

Seattle (3-2) over Arizona (3-3)
Line: Seattle -5.5
Spread pick: Seattle

These teams are both awful. The Seahawks rank 21st or worse in the NFL in passing offense, rushing offense, and passing defense. Arizona ranks 26th or lower in passing offense, rushing offense, passing defense, and rushing defense. How exactly are the Seahawks 4-2 headed into Halloween?

New England (4-1) over San Diego (2-4)
Line: San Diego -2.5
Spread pick: New England

I was interested to see how many points the Pats were favored by this week, and then I saw the Chargers were favored by nearly a field goal. Who is making the lines in Vegas, Mickey Mouse? Scooby Doo? Whoever it is, they must have missed the memo on how quickly the Bolts are falling apart.

Oakland (2-4) over Denver (2-4)
Line: Denver -6.5
Spread pick: Oakland

If Kansas City loses to Jacksonville, the winner of this game will only be a half game out of first place in the AFC West. That's sad, but since I picked the Jags, I'm breathing life into my AFC sleeper. Maybe Rolando McClain will give Tim Tebow another solid pop as McClain's team bests Tebow's for the second time in a row.

Minnesota (2-3) over Green Bay (3-3)
Line: Green Bay -2.5
Spread pick: Minnesota

Brett Favre's elbow is fine. He is coming to Lambeau Field, which automatically means he'll be more amped up than normal. This time, he has Randy Moss with him, and the Packers really don't have anyone to stop Favre, Moss and Percy Harvin. At least I don't think they do. The Packers look like a team searching for an identity. They better not look to their coach, because he doesn't have one either.

New York Giants (4-2) over Dallas (1-4)
Line: Dallas -3.5
Spread pick: New York

All right. I'm buying the Giants. Until they choke Monday night.

Last week: 9-5
Last week v. spread: 7-7

Week 5: 9-5
Week 5 v. spread: 6-8

Season record: 56-34
Season record v. spread: 42-48

NFL picks - Week Five

2010-10-09T16:09:00.007-05:00

Last week, I christened the Week Four slate of games as Moving Day.

We found out a lot about the teams I mentioned last week. Chicago fell flat against the Giants. The 49ers fell to 0-4. And the Ravens made a huge statement by winning in Pittsburgh for just the second time in the last decade.

Moving forward, we'll get to see what the league's remaining undefeated team, the Chiefs, is really made of. Indianapolis comes calling this week, which means we'll find out plenty about Kansas City.

Let's get to the picks.

Jacksonville (2-2) over Buffalo (0-4)
Line: Jacksonville -1.5
Spread pick: Jacksonville

Neither team's passing attack is going to instill fear in an opponent, but the difference will the chasm in the ground game. Jacksonville ranks 12th in the league in rushing offense. Buffalo's rush defense ranks last in the NFL.

Tampa Bay (2-1) over Cincinnati (2-2)
Line: Cincinnati -6.5
Spread pick: Tampa Bay

I'm not buying Tampa Bay as a legitimate contender, and I'm not buying the Bengals as a team that's lost. There is too much defense in Cincy, and the Bucs don't really have much on offense. Cincy's undoing may be their erratic offense, though. My gut says the Bucs steal a victory.

Atlanta (3-1) over Cleveland (1-3)
Line: Atlanta -3.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

It makes no sense to me how the Browns are only 3.5-point dogs in this game. New Orleans is playing inconsistent football, the Packers are getting decimated by injuries, and the Cowboys are playing underwhelming football ... much like I said they would. With most everyone's NFC Super Bowl contender suffering, the Falcons may exceed my prediction of reaching the NFC title game.

Detroit (0-4) over St. Louis (2-2)
Line: Detroit -3.5
Spread pick: St. Louis to cover

Detroit has fallen on a lot of hard luck in the 2010 season. Matthew Stafford is injured, and questions may begin to rise about his durability. Calvin Johnson was robbed in Week One. The Lions get a break this week at home.

Indianapolis (2-2) over Kansas City (3-0)
Line: Indianapolis -8.5
Spread pick: Kansas City to cover

On a personal level, I'd love to see the upstart Chiefs knock off the Colts, since I am a vehement Peyton Manning hater. Reality overcomes personal feelings, though, as the Colts are at home against an overmatched Chiefs team. Kansas City will keep it closer than some would expect, but the perfect season ends Sunday.

Green Bay (3-1) over Washington (2-2)
Line: Green Bay -2.5
Spread pick: Green Bay

Both teams are battling injuries, and it will be interesting to see just how the Packers move forward with Nick Barnett and Morgan Burnett both out for the season. The Redskins are the inferior team, and without their starting running back, Washington is up against a foe too strong to knock off.

Carolina (0-4) over Chicago (3-1)
Line: Chicago -2.5
Spread pick: Carolina

When a team's starting quarterback goes down, a team often leans on the running game. If Chicago does that, they'd be leaning on the 31st-ranked running attack in the NFL. Jimmy Clausen has provided a little spark in Carolina, and he'll get his first pro victory Sunday.

Baltimore (3-1) over Denver (2-2)
Line: Baltimore -7.5
Spread pick: Denver to cover

Baltimore earned a huge victory last week in Pittsburgh to take control of the AFC North. There can't be a letdown this week, especially against one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Kyle Orton is surprising everyone, but the Ravens defense should be ready. Orton will keep the Broncos in the game, but it won't be enough to knock off the Ravens.

Houston (3-1) over New York Giants (2-2)
Line: Houston -3.5
Spread pick: Houston

New York took advantage of a sloppy performance by the Bears last week. Comparing Houston's offense to Chicago's is like comparing Chris Johnson to Julius Jones. The Giants' pass rush will cause a few problems, but Houston's offense is too good for the G-Men to handle.

New Orleans (3-1) over Arizona (2-2)
Line: New Orleans -7.5
Spread pick: Arizona to cover

When was the last time the Saints covered this year? Stop looking, because they haven't. Every game has been close, and the Saints are lucky to be 3-1. They'll get out alive again this week, but until they actually cover, I'm taking the points.

San Diego (2-2) over Oakland (1-3)
Line: San Diego -6.5
Spread pick: San Diego

Philip Rivers, my preseason NFL MVP pick, is setting the world on fire so far this season. The Raiders likely won't be the ones to knock Rivers off the path he's been blazing thus far.

Tennessee (2-2) over Dallas (1-2)
Line: Dallas -6.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

This is easily the most illogical line of the week. How is Dallas nearly a touchdown favorite over the Titans? Tennessee has been up and down on offense - when they're on, they're tough, and when they're off, they're awful. Look for a little more of the on than the off down in Big D Sunday.

Philadelphia (2-2) over San Francisco (0-4)
Line: San Francisco -3.5
Spread pick: Philadelphia

The Niners are a mess. No matter what they do, they just can't seem to put all the pieces together. Kevin Kolb may be starting for the injured Michael Vick, but Kolb is no slouch. In what could easily be a low-scoring affair, the Eagles head back home with a victory.

New York Jets (3-1) over Minnesota (1-2)
Line: New York -4.5
Spread pick: New York

A lot of people will look at the impact Randy Moss is going to have in his first game back with the Vikings. It isn't about how Moss does, though - it's about the pieces around Moss. Can Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian make the difference against one of the best defensive units in the league? I don't see it.

Last week: 8-6
Last week v. spread: 6-8

Season record: 38-24
Season record v. spread: 29-33

NFL picks - Week Four

2010-09-30T20:08:00.006-05:00

If the NFL season were a golf tournament, Week Four would be very similar to Moving Day.

It's now time to see who really is for real (Chicago, I'm looking at you) and who is really screwed (yes, San Francisco, that means you) this season. Statements need to be made by some teams, whether the message be positive or negative.

One of those statements is going to be made in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers play host to the division-rival Baltimore Ravens. If the Ravens leave the Steel City with a victory, they'll have control of the AFC North. If the Steelers win, they'll have gone 4-0 without Ben Roethlisberger, which is bad news for everyone outside of Pittsburgh.

Keep your eyes on the games played in Atlanta, St. Louis, San Diego, New York and Miami as well. Let's see who moves up and who moves out of the way.

Let's get to the picks.

Atlanta (2-1) over San Francisco (0-3)
Line: Atlanta -6.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

I'm getting off a few bandwagons this week. I couldn't run from San Francisco's faster. The Niners look terrible, and the Falcons look like one of the league's best teams. Yes, they probably should have lost to New Orleans last week, but they won, and that's what matters. They won't leave any doubt at home Sunday afternoon.

New York Jets (2-1) over Buffalo (0-3)
Line: New York -5.5
Spread pick: New York

I really didn't think Buffalo was the worst team in the league ... until last week. If Ryan Fitzpatrick is the way you plan to give your offense a spark, you're in serious trouble.

Cincinnati (2-1) over Cleveland (0-3)
Line: Cincinnati -3.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati

As was the case last week, the Bengals have the perfect opportunity to work out their offensive kinks with a trip to Cleveland. Unlike the Ravens, though, Cincinnati has the heads-up on Peyton Hillis.

Green Bay (2-1) over Detroit (0-3)
Line: Green Bay -14.5
Spread pick: Detroit to cover

The Packers aren't as bad as they played Monday night, but every problem Green Bay has was on showcase at Soldier Field. If the Packers can't figure out a way to get their running game going, those Super Bowl aspirations will seem more like a pipe dream.

Tennessee (2-1) over Denver (1-2)
Line: Tennessee -6.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

Tennessee is for real. Chris Johnson is the guy that ran for 2,000-plus yards last year, not the one that ran for 55 yards against Pittsburgh. Denver has issues all over the place, except for the passing game. One problem: The Titans are fifth in the league against the pass.

St. Louis (1-2) over Seattle (2-1)
Line: Seattle -0.5
Spread pick: St. Louis

Don't ask me why, but I like the Rams match-up this week. They're moving the ball well through the air, and they ran the ball fairly well once Steven Jackson went down last week. Seattle is underwhelming more often than not, and a trip to the Gateway City sends Pete Carroll's crew back to the northwest with another loss.

New Orleans (2-1) over Carolina (0-3)
Line: New Orleans -13.5
Spread pick: Carolina to cover

Make no mistake about it: There is something not clicking correctly in New Orleans. Every one of their games has been decided by five points or less, they can't stop the run or get a decent running game going. The champs will win again ... but not by much.

Pittsburgh (3-0) over Baltimore (2-1)
Line: Pittsburgh -1.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

As usual, I hope I'm wrong with this one.

Pittsburgh has been playing lights-out defense in Ben Roethlisberger's absence, a big reason why they're 3-0 and looking like a Super Bowl team. Baltimore got the wrinkles out of the passing game last week against Cleveland, but Ray Rice is banged up. He'll likely play, but being banged up going into a game against the Steelers is never a positive.

Indianapolis (2-1) over Jacksonville (1-2)
Line: Indianapolis -8.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

Last week, the Eagles blew out the Jags. Philly is playing great offense of late, but the Iggles are not the Colts. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, they play the actual Colts this week.

Houston (2-1) over Oakland (1-2)
Line: Houston -3.5
Spread pick: Houston

When I did my preseason picks, I had this game as a battle of 3-0 teams. The lesson, as always: I know nothing about football. I'm fleeing Oakland's bandwagon like it's on fire. Oakland looks as bad as ever, which boggles my mind. Is there something in the air in Oakland? Do the black and silver jerseys have some sort of adverse effect on the men who wear them?

San Diego (1-2) over Arizona (2-1)
Line: San Diego -8.5
Spread pick: Arizona to cover

Somehow, the Cardinals are 2-1 and the Chargers are 1-2. Like most everyone else, I figured it would be the other way around. Arizona still has Derek Anderson playing quarterback and their two best receivers are banged up. San Diego, on the other hand, is really good on offense.

Washington (1-2) over Philadelphia (2-1)
Line: Philadelphia -6.5
Spread pick: Washington

Never underestimate the power of a quarterback scorned. Donovan McNabb has been saying all the right things leading up to his return to Philly, but deep down, he has to be motivated to stick it to all the non-believers. I believe he will.

Chicago (3-0) over New York Giants (1-2)
Line: New York -3.5
Spread pick: Chicago

How exactly are the Giants favored in this game? New York is falling apart, playing disjointed football in all aspects. Chicago just punched one of the media's darlings straight in the mouth Monday night. Am I actually backing Jay Cutler? This may come back to bite me ...

Miami (2-1) over New England (2-1)
Line: New England -0.5
Spread pick: Miami

The Bills just hung 30 on the Pats last week and the guy who started at quarterback for Buffalo got cut this week. I can't trust a team that has given up 24, 28 and 30 points in their three games this year. Furthermore, the 'Fins always seem to give the Pats fits in primetime games at Sun Life Stadium.

Last week: 9-7
Last week v. spread: 10-6

Season record: 30-18
Season record v. spread: 23-25

NFL picks - Week Three

2010-09-23T18:19:00.015-05:00

The first two weeks of the NFL season have taught me one very important lesson.

Don't gamble on NFL games. Ever.

Through two weeks, I'm getting crushed by the spread. Thankfully, there are no bookies to answer to. If there were, I'd be in serious trouble.

In actual NFL relevance, there are some serious contenders saddled with an 0-2 mark, while a couple surprise teams still haven't lost in 2010. Can they keep the momentum going?

Let's get to the picks.

San Francisco (0-2) over Kansas City (2-0)
Line: San Francisco -2.5
Spread pick: San Francisco

The Niners we saw last week is the team we should get much more accustomed to. Kansas City has narrow victories over San Diego (played in a monsoon at Arrowhead) and Cleveland. Reality strikes both teams this week.

Baltimore (1-1) over Cleveland (0-2)
Line: Baltimore -10.5
Spread pick: Baltimore

Criticism has befallen the Baltimore offense. Joe Flacco and Ray Rice haven't really gotten started yet. The perfect remedy? Cleveland's defense.

Houston (2-0) over Dallas (0-2)
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

How many Cowboys fans are going to be calling for Wade Phillips' head when Dallas, a believed Super Bowl contender, starts the season 0-3? Houston is for real, and 3-0 is a hell of a stepping stone to the Texans' first AFC South crown.

Detroit (0-2) over Minnesota (0-2)
Line: Minnesota -10.5
Spread pick: Detroit

Minnesota is struggling mightily to this point. Despite missing their starting quarterback, the Lions are a couple of eyelashes away from 2-0. The Vikings have problems all over their offense and defense, and a loss to the Lions will provide a startling wake-up call for Brad Childress' crew.

New England (1-1) over Buffalo (0-2)
Line: New England -13.5
Spread pick: New England

The Bills are really bad, aren't they? The Patriots aren't, and they're at home. I had reservations about giving New England the points, but the Bills didn't do much to cover the 13.5-point spread last weekend in Green Bay.

New Orleans (2-0) over Atlanta (1-2)
Line: New Orleans -4.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

Week One seemed an aberration for the Falcons. The team the nation saw beat the Cardinals handily is the Falcons we should get used to. The Saints are playing teams a little too close, and even though they'll come out with the victory Sunday, it will be another close one.

Tennessee (1-1) over New York Giants (1-1)
Line: New York -3.5
Spread pick: Tennessee

Both teams looked solid in Week One and got embarrassed last week. Fortunately for the Titans, their embarrassment was self-imposed. Jeff Fisher won't allow his team to turn the ball over seven times against the Giants, and Chris Johnson won't be held to another game of less than 50 yards rushing.

Pittsburgh (2-0) over Tampa Bay (2-0)
Line: Pittsburgh -2.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh

Somehow, the Steelers have played underwhelming football and are 2-0. The old saying goes: It's sometimes better to be lucky than good. If the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back at 3-1 or 4-0, the AFC is in trouble.

Cincinnati (1-1) over Carolina (0-2)
Line: Cincinnati -3.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati

Cincy and Carolina both have some questions to answer under center. The Bengals, however, don't have too many question marks on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina does. Edge: Bengals.

Philadelphia (1-1) over Jacksonville (1-1)
Line: Philadelphia -2.5
Spread: Philadelphia

Michael Vick has been making opposing defense look like it is 2005. Whether he can maintain his recent level of play remains to be seen, but he has the starting job all to himself. Vick's play may slide a bit, but it shouldn't suffer too much against the Jags.

St. Louis (0-2) over Washington (1-1)
Line: Washington -3.5
Spread pick: St. Louis

It seems the Redskins and Rams meet early in the season every year. For the last two years, I've picked the 'Skins to waltz past St. Louis. It cost me an Eliminator Challenge once, and it nearly cost me another time. I'm not making the same mistake again.

Indianapolis (1-1) over Denver (1-1)
Line: Indianapolis -6.5
Spread pick: Indianapolis

Denver is underwhelming, at best. Indy seems to have taken a half step back, but they're still playoff caliber. Kyle Orton isn't going to lead any team to victory when battling Peyton Manning. Reality sucks, sometimes.

Oakland (1-1) over Arizona (1-1)
Line: Arizona -4.5
Spread pick: Oakland

I'm going to continue blindly backing the Raiders until I look like a complete fool. There's already a quarterback controversy brewing and the defense is under-performing. The so-called litmus test comes this week in the desert.

San Diego (1-1) over Seattle (1-1)
Line: San Diego -5.5
Spread pick: San Diego

The Chargers have functioned without their starting running back before, so if Ryan Mathews is a true no-go Sunday, it may be a bit old hat for the Bolts. Philip Rivers is on a tear thus far this year, and the Seahawks don't have the secondary to stop Rivers' roll.

New York Jets (1-1) over Miami (2-0)
Line: Miami -1.5
Spread pick: New York

Miami is having a bit of trouble scoring points. That's a big problem against a Jets defense finding its footing in 2010. As long as Mark Sanchez is allowed to make throws downfield, the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, will be just fine.

Green Bay (2-0) over Chicago (2-0)
Line: Green Bay -3.5
Spread pick: Chicago

Monday Night Football on the Midway features the oldest rivalry in the NFL. The Packers have performed about level with what most expected, while the Bears are starting to make me look like a genius for making them my NFC sleeper. The Bears are never an easy out at Soldier Field, but the Packers will head north with a win on the strength of Mason Crosby's right leg.

Last week: 12-4
Last week v. spread: 7-9

Season record: 21-11
Season record v. spread: 13-19

NFL picks - Week Two

2010-09-18T10:01:00.012-05:00

Last week was a very good and very bad start to the 2010 NFL season.

On the bright side, my Baltimore Ravens went into the New Meadowlands Stadium and silenced Rex Ryan and his Jets to open the season on the right foot.

On the flip side, my first week of picks barely broke the .500 mark, and my first week picking against the spread was a disaster. I was also eliminated from ESPN's Eliminator Challenge in record time.

Thank you, Norv Turner.

Week One is always hard to peg, and Week Two picks are especially hard because overreactions must be squelched immediately.

Are the Texans the best team in the AFC? Probably not. Are the Chiefs going to win the AFC West. Unlikely. But you never really know what might happen.

Let's get to the picks, free from overreactions.

Atlanta over Arizona
Line: Atlanta -6.5
Spread pick: Atlanta

The Falcons have big things in store, according to my preseason rankings. According to last week's performance in Pittsburgh, there's plenty of work to do. The Cardinals have more work to do across the board, and won't be able to handle Michael Turner and the Atlanta rushing attack

Cincinnati over Baltimore
Line: Baltimore -1.5
Spread pick: Cincinnati

The Ravens and Bengals are destined to split the season series, likely to see each home team come away with a victory. Cincinnati isn't as bad as it looked last week in New England, and the excitement of the home opener against a division rival will push the Bengals to rebound with a victory.

Kansas City over Cleveland
Line: Cleveland -1.5
Spread pick: Kansas City

Don't sleep on the Chiefs. Don't overrate them either, though. Last week was a perfect storm for Kansas City, and Cleveland looked awful in a loss to Tampa Bay. The Browns might be battling the Bills for the no. 1 pick and the right to select Jake Locker in April's draft.

Chicago over Dallas
Line: Dallas -8.5
Spread pick: Chicago

How the Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites is beyond me. The team looked ragged and shoddy, and couldn't push the inferior Redskins around. Tony Romo looked shaky behind an offensive line that looked shakier. I'm supposed to believe a week's worth of practice will change that?

Philadelphia over Detroit
Line: Philadelphia -3.5
Spread pick: Philly

There was plenty of promise in the Motor City before Matthew Stafford went down. Shaun Hill was serviceable in San Francisco, but it remains to be seen if he can do the same with the Lions. Philadelphia is reeling after a tough loss to the Packers last week, but Michael Vick's elusiveness gets the Eagles the victory.

Green Bay over Buffalo
Line: Green Bay -13.5
Spread pick: Buffalo to cover

This is, without question, the easiest spread pick of the week. There's quite a difference between the Packers (Super Bowl contender) and the Bills (possible landing spot for no. 1 pick Jake Locker) but 14 points seems way too high. The Pack is without running back Ryan Grant for the rest of the season, and that will have more of an impact than people might want to admit.

Tennessee over Pittsburgh
Line: Tennessee -5.5
Spread pick: Pittsburgh to cover

Dennis Dixon did a great job leading the Steelers to victory last week, but the Titans looked magnificent in a systematic decimation of Oakland. If Vince Young can continue to play well, the Titans may be serious contenders in the AFC.

Miami over Minnesota
Line: Minnesota -5.5
Spread pick: Miami

The lug nuts are starting to rattle on the Vikings' wheels. By this time next month, those wheels may be off. Brett Favre isn't completely invested in this season, and the defense is much shakier than most, including myself, thought. Miami is a solid enough team to spoil Minnesota's home opener.

Carolina over Tampa Bay
Line: Carolina -2.5
Spread pick: Carolina

Tampa Bay took a win from a team that will struggle to win five. Carolina may be headed for another 8-8 season, but one of those wins will come Sunday against the Bucs.

Seattle over Denver
Line: Denver -3.5
Spread pick: Seattle

For reasons I cannot understand, the Broncos are actually carrying some sort of weight around the league. I couldn't be less sold on Denver, which has little defense and a questionable quarterback. The Seahawks looked sharp against San Francisco last week, and if they do it again this week, Seattle may be the favorite to win the paltry NFC West.

Oakland over St. Louis
Line: Oakland -4.5
Spread pick: Oakland

Forget last week's terrible performance - the Raiders are still a potential .500 team. There may be no better team to turn the ship around against than the Rams. Sam Bradford looked good for a rookie, but the caveat is that he's still a rookie.

New England over New York Jets
Line: New England -1.5
Spread pick: New England

Mark Sanchez is going to have to start throwing for more than 75 yards a game if the Jets want to go anywhere this season. New England's defense isn't as good as the Baltimore defense Sanchez saw last week, but single digits won't get the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets past the Pats.

San Diego over Jacksonville
Line: San Diego -7.5
Spread: Jacksonville to cover

An interesting plot line is developing in San Diego. Is Philip Rivers going to supplant Jay Cutler as the NFL's spoiled brat quarterback? If so, there may be a silver lining for Chargers fans: Norv Turner may finally lose his job.

Houston over Washington
Line: Houston -2.5
Spread pick: Houston

Washington handled the overrated Cowboys at home last week. The Texans handled the defending AFC champs last week. Unfortunately for the 'Skins, the Texans aren't overrated ... and are pretty darned good.

Indianapolis over New York Giants
Line: Indianapolis -5.5
Spread pick: New York to cover

All kinds of analysts and talking heads are jumping off the Colts bandwagon to jump on New York's. Here's the difference between Houston and New York: The Giants' offense isn't as good as Houston's. The Colts will struggle with New York's front four, but Peyton Manning trumps brother Eli every time.

New Orleans over San Francisco
Line: New Orleans -4.5
Spread pick: New Orleans

Week Two is the true litmus test for both teams. New Orleans looked much less impressive than expected in their opening-night win over Minnesota, and the Niners looked abysmal in a lopsided loss to Seattle. If either team continues trending in those respective directions, they'll be in a lot of trouble.

Last week: 9-7
Last week v. spread: 6-10
Season record: 9-7
Season record v. spread: 6-10

NFL Picks - Week One

2010-09-07T16:12:00.006-05:00

In a hair more than 48 hours, the NFL regular season kicks off in New Orleans, when the defending Super Bowl champion Saints welcome the Minnesota Vikings to the Big Easy.

I, for one, could not be more excited for the return of fantasy football, pick 'em challenges and, of course, NFL games that matter!

After stating in last year's Week One column that it would be hard to match my 2008 record of 168 wins, I came within two of matching that mark in 2009. For the last two years, my pick record stands at 334-186-1, a .641 win percentage. Not bad. Let's see if I can do it again in 2010.

As I did last year, I'll be including my pick from ESPN's Eliminator Challenge. If you're not familiar, the Eliminator Challenge sees you pick one team each week to win ... but you can't pick the same team twice.

For the first time in 2010, let's get to the picks!

New Orleans over Minnesota

New season, same story in this match-up. The Vikings only got older, and the absence of Sidney Rice takes a dimension away from the passing game. If anyone thinks Brett Favre will have the type of season he did last year, they're sorely mistaken.

Miami over Buffalo

The Jake Locker Sweepstakes begins Sunday, and one of the front-runners is Buffalo. The running game is in shambles, as is the defense, and Trent Edwards is not the answer under center. Look for Miami to pick up a rare W at Orchard Park.

Chicago over Detroit

2010 will be a surprisingly positive year for Detroit. Unfortunately, it might take a few weeks for the Lions to get their feet. The team is improved across the board, but there's still plenty of work to be done.

Oakland over Tennessee

The Titans, a team known for its defense, is suddenly offensively oriented. Defensive mainstay Keith Bulluck is in New York, and there isn't much to speak of left in Nashville. The Raiders will surprise a lot of people this year ... starting Sunday.

Cincinnati over New England

These aren't the same Patriots we came to know and, for the majority of NFL fans, hate. Three years ago, losing a season opener in Foxborough was unfathomable for the Pats. Times have changed, as the Patriots aren't an unstoppable force and the Bengals aren't cannon fodder for the league's elite.

New York Giants over Carolina

It's time to start over in Carolina. Outside of the running game, there isn't much left in Charlotte. John Fox will probably join the list of former Panthers, especially after a double-digit loss season in 2010.

Atlanta over Pittsburgh

The Falcons have improved their defense, and getting Matt Ryan and Michael Turner healthy again should mean very good things for the Falcons. Pittsburgh will struggle under Dennis Dixon, regardless of the opponent. Atlanta's pass defense won't be as porous as it was in 2009, and the run defense should improve with the addition of Sean Weatherspoon.

Cleveland over Tampa Bay

Don't look now, but the Cleveland defense actually has some talent. Unfortunately, their offense doesn't. Neither does Tampa's, and this clash of the NFL's bottom feeders should entertain few outside of the Cleveland and Tampa Bay area. And even they might click away to a better game.

Jacksonville over Denver

The team that drafted Tim Tebow takes on the team that many thought would in a clash of lower-tier AFC teams. Neither team looks too impressive on paper, but the Jaguars superior running attack gives them a slight edge.

Houston over Indianapolis

Indy's weakness, the health of its offensive line, plays right into Houston's defensive strength, it's front seven. The Colts often struggle at Reliant Stadium, and with a Texans team lining up against them, this task may be too tall to overcome in Week One.

San Francisco over Seattle

As I outlined in my season preview, the Niners are the cream of the NFC West crop ... despite how bad the crop may be. The only playoff contender in the division, San Francisco starts its quest toward the playoffs with a divisional win.

Green Bay over Philadelphia

Last week, I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl. Within 24 hours, they put Al Harris and Atari Bigby, two starters, on the PUP list. This Brewer Curse thing might be real. Nonetheless, I have no faith in Kevin Kolb as a starter, especially against one of the better defenses in the NFL.

Arizona over St. Louis

Wasn't it fun to see the Cardinals in the playoffs for a couple years? It might be a few more before they make it back. The Rams, on the other hand, have miles more to go before they can even think about postseason football.

Dallas over Washington

The arrival of Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb will help the Redskins, but against the division's best team, it won't help enough. Washington's offensive line is a wreck and the defense is starting to resemble a slice of Swiss cheese.

Baltimore over New York Jets

What a match-up to start the Monday Night Football slate. Baltimore's weakness is its secondary, and it's tough to imagine Mark Sanchez exploiting that weakness without Santonio Holmes on the field. The absence of Jets linebacker Calvin Pace gives Baltimore the slight edge.

San Diego over Kansas City
**Eliminator Pick**

Vincent Jackson's absence will hamper the Chargers through the first four weeks of the regular season, but they won't miss much of a beat against Kansas City. The Chiefs have nowhere to go but up, but that journey to relevance is a long one.

2010 NFL Picks

2010-08-29T16:20:00.024-05:00

In less than two weeks, the 2010 NFL season officially gets underway when the reigning Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints play host to the Minnesota Vikings in a rematch of last year's NFC title game.

Three days later, the majority of the league breaks the seal on the 2010 campaign, with a Monday night doubleheader capping the week's action.

Each year presents different questions, and this year is no different. Will Mike Shanahan finally bring the Redskins back to prominence? Will a Patriots team finally showing cracks crumble under the weight of the ultra-competitive AFC? Can the Colts once again finish near the top of the NFL at the end of the regular season?

Let's get to the picks.

AFC Division Champs
North: Baltimore - As stated in the preseason power rankings, the amount of success Baltimore has is predicated on the health and performance of the secondary. If guys like Lardarius Webb, Fabian Washington and Tom Zbikowski are consistent, Baltimore's lofty goals may be reached. The defensive unit, paired with a strong offense, will be enough to get Baltimore past defending champion Cincinnati for the division crown.
South: Indianapolis - Sooner or later, time is going to catch up to the Colts. Unfortunately for Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville, it won't happen in 2010. The defending AFC champs will be back atop their division and focused on a return trip to the Super Bowl.
East: New York - If the Darrelle Revis holdout lasts into Week 1, it won't last much longer than that. The Jets need Revis, and both parties know that. With a stellar defense and an improved offense, the hype surrounding New York is for real.
West: San Diego - There is still a gap between the Bolts and the rest of the AFC West, but it's substantially smaller this year. Ryan Mathews fits San Diego's scheme well, and Philip Rivers seems to get better every year. As long as the defense holds strong again in 2010, the Chargers will be tough to beat.

NFC Division Champs
North: Green Bay - I've been hyping the Packers since last offseason, so I'm not going to stop now. Much like the Ravens, the success of the Packers will be dictated by the secondary. Charles Woodson likely won't have a season like he did in 2009 and Al Harris is coming off knee surgery. If guys like Tramon Williams and rookie Morgan Burnett contribute, Green Bay won't fall short of the "Dallas or Bust" mentality consuming Titletown.
South: New Orleans - For the first time in a few years, we have a legitimate contender to repeat as Super Bowl champion. The Saints haven't gotten any worse since winning the Super Bowl in February, and coach Sean Payton has his team prepared for its title defense. The road to the Super Bowl may once again run through New Orleans.
East: Dallas - The talk of the Cowboys being the first team to play the Super Bowl at its home stadium is a bit overkill. While the defense is strong, there are still plenty of questions on the offensive side of the ball. Will Miles Austin repeat last year's performance? Will the running backs stay healthy? Is Dez Bryant really going to contribute like Cowboys fans think he will? Too many questions mean the 'Boys barely repeat as division champs.
West: San Francisco - It may be by default, but for the first time since 2002, the San Francisco 49ers will play postseason football. Seattle and St. Louis are rebuilding and Arizona may not be far behind. Regardless, the Niners' defense is strong and the offense is coming along nicely. If Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis play well again this year, 2010 will be a good year by the bay.

Wildcard Teams
AFC: Cincinnati and Houston
NFC: Atlanta and Minnesota

Sleepers
AFC: Oakland
NFC: Chicago

Yearly Awards
NFL MVP: Philip Rivers (QB, San Diego)
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees (QB, New Orleans)
Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis (LB, San Francisco)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ryan Mathews (RB, San Diego)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Detroit)
Coach of the Year: Mike Singletary, San Francisco
Comeback Player of the Year: E.J. Henderson (LB, Minnesota)

Wildcard Playoffs
San Diego over Cincinnati
Houston over Baltimore
Atlanta over San Francisco
Dallas over Minnesota

Divisional Playoffs
New York over Houston
San Diego over Indianapolis
Atlanta over New Orleans
Green Bay over Dallas

AFC Championship
New York over San Diego

NFC Championship
Green Bay over Atlanta

Super Bowl XLV
Green Bay over New York

Aaron Rodgers' arrival as an NFL superstar is undeniable. Bringing the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to the town in which Lombardi became famous will immortalize Rodgers in Packers lore.

Rex Ryan has a future powerhouse on his hands. A strong running game and a stout defense will get you far in the playoffs. Mark Sanchez may not be a superstar, but Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson and Mark Rypien have led teams to a world championship. Who's to say Sanchez can't?

This year will be the deciding year of the potential Brewer Curse. For the last two years, my preseason Super Bowl picks have failed to make the Super Bowl.

In fact, the stats aren't pretty. Only last year's Vikings came close to the Super Bowl. In 2008, both Jacksonville and New Orleans missed the playoffs entirely. New England was blown out, at home, in the first round last year.

Time will tell us all if the Brewer Curse is real.

2010 NFL Preseason Power Rankings

2010-08-18T22:31:00.020-05:00

August means two things in Wisconsin: stifling humidity and a frenzy over the local pro football team.

We've been without the humidity as of late, but the excitement hasn't been this high in Titletown since the late 1990s. The preferred winter destination for Packers fans is Dallas, and for the first time in over a decade, the expectations fit.

There are 31 other teams eyeing a game at Cowboys Stadium Feb. 6, but which two have the inside track of getting there?

My season picks (and possible continuation of the Josh Brewer Curse) will be made later this month, but to whet the proverbial appetites of the football-hungry NFL fans, I present my 2010 NFL Preseason Power Rankings.

From worst to first, let's get to the picks.

32. St. Louis
Last year: #32
The calendar has run a full cycle since last year's power rankings, yet St. Louis still sits in the cellar. And for good reason.
The cupboard is bare after Steven Jackson, the only Rams player with a Pro Bowl on his resume. With Sam Bradford being physically welcomed to the pros for 16 weeks, the Rams may flirt with 0-16 once again in 2010.

31. Kansas City
Last year: #31
Deja vu in Kansas City. New coordinators, same bland quarterback, still no defense.
On the bright side, Eric Berry is actually excited to be in town. Berry should provide a bright spot on the Chiefs' underwhelming defense, and Dexter McCluster should bring a new dynamic to the team's stale offense.

30. Cleveland
Last year: #27
Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are gone, and Jake Delhomme is in town. The quarterback controversy is over!
Wait ... Cleveland traded for Seneca Wallace and drafted Colt McCoy?
Never mind.
I'm really starting to feel bad for Cleveland sports fans. They could really use a break. If they're looking to the Browns, they're looking in the wrong place.

29. Buffalo
Last year: #21
If you're looking for a harbinger of how Buffalo's season is going to play out, here it is: Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson were injured in the Bills' first preseason game. That leaves C.J. Spiller, a poor man's Reggie Bush, as the starter. Welcome to Buffalo, Coach Gailey.

28. Tampa Bay
Last year: #29
Not much has changed in Tampa. Josh Freeman takes the reigns with a year under his belt, but last year's top receiver, Antonio Bryant, is in Cincinnati. Gerald McCoy can help Tampa's rush defense, which ranked last in 2009, but the offense will need a miracle to produce regularly.

27. Detroit
Last year: #28
Keep an eye on the Lions this year. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are healthy, and Jahvid Best could bring a new element to Detroit's offense ... if he remains uninjured. The additions of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh should improve Detroit's defense, but there's still plenty of work to in the Motor City.

26. Seattle
Last year: #24
Pete Carroll returns to the NFL in 2010, but his current team might have struggled to beat Carroll's recent USC squads. There isn't many positives for the Seahawks, save the early draft pick they'll have come April.

25. Jacksonville
Last year: #23
Jacksonville's defense was a liability last year, and no major improvements were made on the unit. Maurice Jones-Drew can only do so much, especially if David Garrard has another pedestrian season.

24. Carolina
Last year: #13
Julius Peppers will be sorely missed in Charlotte, even if he wasn't giving 100% last year. Steve Smith is a nutcase and he's injured - again - and Matt Moore is anything but proven. Jimmy Clausen may be the starter in Carolina by Thanksgiving.

23. Denver
Last year: #25
Speaking of rookies who may be starting by year's end, we have Tim Tebow in Denver. It seems I'm the only one who thinks Tebow won't succeed in the NFL, and my main opponent may be Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. Elvis Dumervil's injury will prove costly for a defense already lacking playmakers.

22. Arizona
Last year: #17
Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Karlos Dansby are all gone from a team that only had one impressive win last season. Matt Leinart is not an NFL-caliber quarterback, and it remains to be seen whether Steve Breaston can step in and fill the massive void left by Boldin.
The defensive issues aren't any better. A unit that struggled only got worse with the departure of Dansby. If Joey Porter were as good at football as he is at talking, the Cards may have picked up a gem. Unfortunately, he isn't.

21. Miami
Last year: #20
Evidently, the additions of Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby are going to get Miami to the playoffs. I don't buy it.
Both the offense and defense are mediocre, and I can't see Chad Henne taking over a game any time soon.

20. New York Giants
Last year: #2
For as high as I was on the Giants last year, I'm low on them this year. Eli Manning proved last year that he's, well, Eli Manning. New York's defense was porous last year, and even with the addition of Antrel Rolle (who wasn't a huge difference-maker in Arizona), there will still be plenty of problems.

19. Oakland
Last year: #22
Sleeper alert, baby!
Oakland's defense was solid last year, and the addition of Rolando McClain will only help matters. Jason Campbell is also in town, marking the first time the Raiders have had an NFL quarterback under center in nearly a decade. If Oakland had any receivers, they may be a playoff team.

18. Washington
Last year: T-7
Donovan McNabb is in town, meaning the Redskins have a quarterback they're actually standing behind. The offense will be tough to stop if the offensive line holds up its end of the bargain. The defense is sketchy, which will likely keep Washington out of the playoffs in 2010.

17. Philadelphia
Last year: #19
McNabb's old team sneaks ahead of his new one because of defense. Philly's offense may not be as potent with the unproven Kevin Kolb and the departure of Brian Westbrook, but it should be enough to keep the Eagles on the cusp of the playoff picture.

16. Pittsburgh
Last year: #3
Ben Roethlisberger's season-opening suspension (which should be at least eight games, instead of the slap on the wrist he got) isn't Pittsburgh's only problem. The team's leading receiver from last year, Santonio Holmes, is in New York. Hines Ward is getting old. And the offensive line is still a problem. Defense can only carry you so far.

15. Chicago
Last year: T-14
The addition of Julius Peppers will have even more of an impact if Brian Urlacher can stay on the field this year. A third-place schedule benefits the Bears, who could surprise a lot of people by approaching 10 wins.

14. Tennessee
Last year: #9
If the Titans wish to succeed in 2010, Vince Young must continue the successes he had last season. Chris Johnson will not run for 2,000 yards again this year, and most teams will likely force VY to beat them.

13. San Francisco
Last year: #26
Quietly enough, the Niners have become the NFC West's best team. That may not be the biggest compliment in the world, but we're talking about a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2002. Mike Singletary may not be the best coach in NFL history, but he'll have done a hell of a job just getting the Niners back to the postseason.

T-11. New England
Last year: #1
The loss of Ty Warren isn't going to help a defense that is starting to age quickly. Randy Moss is in a contract year, meaning he'll be tough to stop, but the man throwing him the ball may the franchise's biggest question mark. Contract talks between the Pats and Tom Brady are not going well, and sooner or later, Brady may lose his patience with New England's stingy front office. Troubled waters lie ahead for the Pats.

T-11. Houston
Last year: #11
Outside of Indy, the AFC's best offense resides in Houston. The defense is young and talented, and if it can hold opponents in check, the Texans will be playoff bound for the first time in franchise history. The biggest task, however, is replacing Dunta Robinson. If the Texans can't do that, the postseason drought will continue.

10. Minnesota
Last year: #5
The blueprint has been laid for beating the Brett Favre-led Minnesota Vikings. See: 2009 NFC Championship Game.
That isn't all that's changed in the Twin Cities. Favre won't have another year like he did in 2009, Percy Harvin has been struggling with migraines all summer, and the defense didn't get anything but older.
And those arch-rival Packers? They'll be stronger this year.

9. Cincinnati
Last year: #30
Out of nowhere, the Bengals seem to have a solid defensive unit.
The biggest questions seem to be in the offensive backfield. Will Carson Palmer ever return to the level he played at before his reconstructive knee surgery in early 2006? Can Cedric Benson have another 1,200-yard season? Will Chad Ochocino and Terrell Owens get along?
If the answer to even two of those questions is yes, the Bengals may be looking at a deep January run.

8. Dallas
Last year: T-7
There's a lot of talk in and out of Dallas about the Cowboys playing their final game at home on Feb. 6. Tony Romo will need to answer a few questions about himself before that happens, though. The same can be said about Miles Austin and the apparent second coming of Michael Irvin, rookie Dez Bryant.

7. Atlanta
Last year: #10
Michael Turner and Matt Ryan are healthy. Tony Gonzalez has a year of Atlanta's offense under his belt. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have come into their own. The addition of Dunta Robinson gives the Falcons a shut-down corner for the first time in years. Look for the Falcons to make some serious noise in 2010.

6. Baltimore
Last year: #4
ESPN's SportsNation picked the Ravens to win it all this year. Baltimore has everything in place to do so ... except a strong secondary.
In fact, the secondary seems to be falling apart. While Lardarius Webb and Fabian Washington should be ready to go for the season opener, Domonique Foxworth is done for the year and nobody really seems to know when Ed Reed will be back in the starting lineup.

5. New York Jets
Last year: #18
I might not have as much faith in the J-E-T-S as coach Rex Ryan does, but there's plenty of Jets love in this power ranking.
There are plenty of reasons to like the Jets. Santonio Holmes will bring a new dimension to the offense once he hits the field. Antonio Cromartie will be a quietly strong addition as long as he remembers the playbook better than he remembers his kids' names. Rookie cornerback Kyle Wilson should be a great nickel back, who may see starting time if Cromartie struggles.
If Mark Sanchez doesn't have a sophomore slump, the Jets may be headed to Big D this winter.

4. Indianapolis
Last year: #12
For the first time in seemingly forever, Dallas Clark is injured. If this injury lingers, Peyton Manning's season may suffer, albeit slightly. And as we all know, the Indianapolis Colts go as Peyton Manning goes.

3. Green Bay
Last year: T-14
A quote from last year's power rankings: "Wait ‘til next year, Packers fans. 2010 will be good to the Titletown faithful."
2010 is here, and so are the Super Bowl expectations. Like many of this year's Super Bowl contenders, the success of the Packers hinges largely on the secondary. If Charles Woodson can approach last year's performance, Al Harris successfully returns from injury, and Tramon Williams continue to develop the way he has, Green Bay may once again become Titletown this February.

2. San Diego
Last year: #6
There's nothing to worry about on the offensive side of the ball in San Diego, regardless of Vincent Jackson's suspension. Ryan Mathews will impress any doubters this year, Darren Sproles will continue to be a multi-faceted weapon and Philip Rivers could be in for an MVP season.
Defense is again the bugaboo here. If the Bolts play stingy D in 2010, the franchise's second Super Bowl appearance will end much differently than its first.

1. New Orleans
Last year: #16
The New Orleans Saints are the defending Super Bowl champions. Until another team can boast such an accomplishment, the Saints are the team to beat.
Head coach Sean Payton has the Saints just as focused this offseason as the team was heading into last season. A focused New Orleans squad will scare even the best defenses in the NFL, as Drew Brees may once again celebrate under the confetti Feb. 6.

2010 NFL Draft ... Live!

2010-04-17T16:15:00.042-05:00

After nearly four months away from the blog, and even longer yet since my last live blog, I am coming to you live from my unofficial live-blogging home, The Pez Cave!

This time around, Pez and I will be watching the first round of the NFL Draft. For the first time since becoming the event it is today, the first round will air on a Thursday night. I'm not terribly excited about this, since I have to wake up for work at 5:45 tomorrow morning, but we're gonna have some fun tonight.

As an addendum for this year's live blog, I'm adding the prospect I said each respective team should have taken with the pick in my most recent mock draft.

6:34 p.m. - We made it just in time. Pez is excited and I'm sated. We'll see what happens, but all signs point to Sam Bradford going off the board in the next few minutes.

ProFootballTalk.com is reporting the Dolphins and Cowboys are talking about swapping first-round picks. Meanwhile, Kiper just said the Rams NEED to take Sam Bradford. Wrong - they need a quarterback, not necessarily Bradford.

1. St. Louis - Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
Mock 3.0 pick - Ndamukong Suh
Steve Young liked the idea of the Rams wasting most of their time on the clock to announce a pick everyone knew was coming. Bradford is nowhere near the sure thing almost everyone at ESPN says he is. He is essentially another workout warrior - all of a sudden he is the best quarterback to come out in the last 25 years because of a performance he put on in a t-shirt and shorts. This reeks of bust.

6:41 p.m. - Everyone on the ESPN set is freaking out over Sam Bradford. Jon Gruden says the Rams just got a lot better. Really? How many NFL games has he started? Or won?

Meanwhile, Pez says, compared to Tim Tebow, he wants to make sweet love to Sam Bradford. We're off to a torrid pace.

2. Detroit - Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
Mock 3.0 pick - Gerald McCoy
The Lions just picked up the best player in this year's draft. Suh is a beast and should immediately improve the Lions' defensive line. Kyle Vanden Bosch and Suh will make Detroit's front four suddenly impressive. A great pick for Detroit.

6:45 p.m. - Pez just handed me a Leinie's Fireside Nut Brown. Huge win.

3. Tampa Bay - Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
Mock 3.0 pick - Russell Okung
Pez and I agree that ESPN is ruining the suspense by showing the picks on the phone before the pick is actually announced.

Regardless, McCoy is the player coach Raheem Morris wanted. He could be the anchor for Tampa's defense for years to come, and at minimum, will potentially be the first decent defensive tackle the Bucs have had since Warren Sapp left town.

4. Washington - Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
Mock 3.0 pick - Williams
Reports floated around the internet stating the Redskins may surprise a lot of people with their pick, but Williams is a surprise to few. He fits Mike Shanahan's zone blocking scheme better than any prospect in this draft, so the pick is a smart, solid one for Washington.

7:02 p.m. - Trent Williams has an inside joke with Roger Goodell? How awesome is that? I now love Trent Williams. I want only good things for him.

5. Kansas City - Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
Mock 3.0 pick - Berry
"I'm going to the Chiefs, baby!," Berry said as ESPN comes back from commercial break. He may be the first person in the last decade to say that with legitimate excitement.

Like Jon Gruden, I have Berry as my no. 2 overall prospect, behind only Ndamukong Suh. If I had to pick two prospects to hitch my wagon on as future Pro Bowlers, Suh and Berry would be the two.

6. Seattle - Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
Mock 3.0 pick - Bryan Bulaga
A slight slip for Okung, but a great pick-up for Seattle. Tackle was a pressing need for the Seahawks and they couldn't have gotten a better guy out of this draft. Ideally, the Seahawks would get C.J. Spiller to fall to them at their second first-round pick, but they should be ecstatic to snag Okung.

7:17 p.m. - Six picks in, there have been practically no surprises. The Cleveland pick could very well be the first pick to surprise everyone. Jimmy Clausen, Kyle Wilson, Derrick Morgan, Dez Bryant and Rolando McClain are all in play here. Internet reports have said the Browns are high on Wilson. Let's see where Mike Holmgren and company go.

7. Cleveland - Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
Mock 3.0 pick - Sam Bradford
No doubt a solid pick for Cleveland. Plenty of people have criticized Haden for reasons I simply cannot understand. Watching Haden play last year, I really liked what I saw from him ... except when he was shutting down Florida State's wide receivers. With nobody on the outside to stop the pass, Haden is a solid addition.

7:25 p.m. - Pez and I are trying to have a conversation with his cat, Kona. The cat is not responding.

Futhermore, Pez unveils to me his recent purchase: a vibraslap. I couldn't be more excited. This is such a great development.

8. Oakland - Rolando McClain (ILB, Alabama)
Mock 3.0 pick - Jimmy Clausen
I can't believe I'm about to type this: The Oakland Raiders just made an outstanding first-round draft pick.

I am huge on Rolando McClain, so much so that I would have loved to see Baltimore move up to get him. Nonetheless, the Raiders have a playmaker and a leader for the future. I'm still in shock that Al Davis actually made an intelligent pick.

9. Buffalo - C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
Mock 3.0 pick - Anthony Davis
Spiller is the pick with Jimmy Clausen on the board? I can't say I understand this one.

Buffalo has two good running backs and they draft Spiller, who is a Reggie Bush-type flex player. If they're looking for a playmaker, they have found one ... but how consistent is he? Reggie Bush wasn't worthy of a top 10 pick, and I can't say Spiller is either. With Clausen available and offensive line a pressing need, the Bills puzzle me once again this year.

7:37 p.m. - Pez just told me a story that effectively points out Taco Bell using cheese that isn't really cheese. It's gross and I will avoid going into detail, but I'm going to ramp up my efforts to avoid eating at the TB Lounge for quite some time.

10. Jacksonville - Tyson Alualu (DT, California)
Mock 3.0 pick - Joe Haden
Um, who? Alualu hasn't appeared on any first-round mock draft I've read this year. I'd give my opinion on this guy, but I haven't read a single thing about him. I thought Derrick Morgan was the pick here, but we'll see if Jacksonville knows more than we do or not.

7:41 p.m. - Mel Kiper is trying to defend this latest pick, but I don't buy it. I don't really know what the hell the Jags were thinking on that last one.

11. San Francisco (via Denver from Chicago) - Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
Mock 3.0 pick - Dez Bryant
A very smart pick by the Niners. Offensive line was a need since Joe Staley was the only serviceable player on the line, so the addition of Davis should prove to be a big help. I'm surprised Bryan Bulaga wasn't the pick here, but Davis should be a solid selection.

12. San Diego (via Miami) - Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)
Mock 3.0 pick - Rolando McClain
Unless the Chargers know something most NFL fans didn't, Mathews probably would have been available later in the first round. Nonetheless, the Bolts needed to replace LaDainian Tomlinson and Mathews is the perfect guy to do so.

13. Philadelphia (via Denver from San Francisco) - Brandon Graham (DE/OLB, Michigan)
Mock 3.0 pick - C.J. Spiller
Like everyone else, I thought this was definitely going to be Earl Thomas. After the acquistion of Ernie Sims, I was convinced the Eagles were set at outside linebacker, but now Graham may join Sims in the starting lineup.

7:59 p.m. - Pez is having a field day with ESPN's spelling error on the graphic after Philly's pick. Meanwhile, the Coors commercial with Mike Ditka is getting pretty old. I think we've already seen it 38 times tonight.

14. Seattle (via Denver) - Earl Thomas (DB, Texas)
Mock 3.0 pick - Derrick Morgan
Interestingly enough, Derrick Morgan is on the board and the Seahawks will pass on him. Earl Thomas is a hell of a pick at 14, though, and should improve a bland, lackluster secondary in the Pacific northwest.

15. New York Giants - Jason Pierre-Paul (DE/OLB, South Florida)
Mock 3.0 pick - Mike Iupati
Pierre-Paul's selection isn't terribly surprising, but with Sergio Kindle still on the board, I would have taken Kindle. Pierre-Paul is the first round's preeminent workout warrior, reminded me all too much of Vernon Gholston. Let's see if Pierre-Paul will have a better career path than Gholston.

16. Tennessee - Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
Mock 3.0 pick - Carlos Dunlap
A great pick for the Titans. Morgan was a longshot to be on the board at this point, and here he sits. Morgan is the best defensive end in the draft and the Titans likely couldn't be happier to pick Morgan as the replacement for the departed Kyle Vanden Bosch.

8:21 p.m. - The night just got amazing. Chimay Grande Reserve has been poured. Pez and I couldn't be more excited.

17. San Francisco (via Seattle) - Mike Iupati (OL, Idaho)
Mock 3.0 pick - Sergio Kindle
As if one massive road grater up front wasn't enough, San Francisco now has two. Mike Iupati is a solid selection, despite the criticisms being heaved at him by Mel Kiper. After some development, the Niners could end up having one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL.

18. Pittsburgh - Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
Mock 3.0 pick - Pouncey
Very little surprise with this pick. The Steelers needed to address their offensive line, and Pouncey was the top candidate to do so over the last couple of weeks. Pittsburgh seems to be set on the Ben Roethlisberger front, whether or not they wanted him in town.

19. Atlanta - Sean Weatherspoon (OLB, Missouri)
Mock 3.0 pick - Brandon Graham
Many Packers fans, including Pez, are now disappointed. Weatherspoon is a ball hawk who seems to always be in the middle of the action. With his ability to play inside and outside, the Falcons could have just picked up a long-term defensive playmaker.

8:33 p.m. - Jimmy Clausen has become a running joke here in the Pez Cave. Unless someone trades up to snag him, Clausen will likely fall to no. 26. Would Arizona pick Clause, or could he fall to Minnesota at no. 30?

20. Houston - Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
Mock 3.0 pick - Kyle Wilson
Hmmm ... a head-scratcher, no doubt. Kyle Wilson, the near-consensus no. 2 cornerback in this draft class, is still available, but Jackson is an interesting selection here. Houston needed to replace Dunta Robinson, so it looks like Jackson will be the man faced with that tall task.

21. Cincinnati - Jermaine Gresham (TE, Cincinnati)
Mock 3.0 pick - Earl Thomas
Steve Young is really getting on my nerves. All he's doing is ranting and raving about quarterbacks and his former teammates. Please, for the sake of everyone, shut up.

Gresham fills a need for Cincinnati, but defense may have been a better addition here. Sergio Kindle could have been a better selection here.

22. Denver (via New England) - Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Mock 3.0 pick - Jermaine Gresham
Brilliant draft strategy from Josh McDaniels. Not only did the Broncos move back 11 spots and acquire more picks, they fill the need many thought they would address at no. 11. Thomas fills an obvious need at receiver. Dez Bryant could have Brandon Marshall to blame - everyone thought Denver would take Bryant, but character is apparently now at a premium in Denver.

8:48 p.m. - Sergio Kindle and Bryan Bulaga are both on the board. I can't imagine Ted Thompson thought he'd have this type of choice at no. 23.

23. Green Bay - Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
Mock 3.0 pick - Sean Weatherspoon
What a coup for the Packers. I had Bulaga off the board in the top five in my last mock draft and never had him outside of the top 10. I consider Bulaga to be the no. 2 offensive tackle in this draft, behind Russell Okung. What a great pick-up for Green Bay.

24. Dallas (via New England, Denver and Philadelphia) - Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Mock 3.0 pick - Devin McCourty
Tony Romo now has two serious weapons on the outside. Wide receiver isn't a terribly pressing need in Dallas, but Miles Austin is really the only option outside of Jason Witten. If Bryant can make an impact in his rookie season, the Cowboys could be the NFC team to watch.

25. Denver (via Baltimore) - Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
Mock 3.0 pick - Patrick Robinson
And there it is. Reports surfaced late this afternoon that the Broncos were moving into position to acquire a late first-round pick to select Tim Tebow. My criticisms of Tebow are well-documented, so there's no use in repeating them here. The biggest story in all of this is that Jimmy Clausen will, at best, be the third quarterback off the board. I don't see him lasting too much longer, though.

The only person that dislikes Tebow as much as I do is Pez. He just went postal when Tebow threw on the Broncos hat. I'm right there with him inside.

9:09 p.m. - The Giants fans are chanting, "Te-bow sucks!" I've never liked Giants fans more.

9:15 p.m. - I was unaware Jon Gruden and Steve Young were in love with Tim Tebow. They're defending him like he's the best quarterback ever and all his criticisms were unjust. This is the NFL - Tebow will NOT run over linebackers or run around like he did at Florida.

26. Arizona - Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
Mock 3.0 pick - Kareem Jackson
This is considered a slip by some, but not for me. I had him at the back end of the first round, and the Cardinals need some help in the center of their defensive line. With needs all over the place, the Cardinals were best off picking the best player available to them. Williams may be the player best suited to make an impact in Arizona.

27. New England (via Dallas) - Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
Mock 3.0 pick - Rodger Saffold
Like many other people, I didn't really see the Patriots taking a corner in the first round, especially with Sergio Kindle still available. The Pats could use some youth across the board on defense, so McCourty will likely provide that youth.

28. Miami (via San Diego) - Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
Mock 3.0 pick - Ryan Mathews
Dan Williams was pegged for Miami's pick at no. 12, but Odrick is right up on Williams' level, and the Dolphins got him 16 spots later. Odrick is a little lighter than Williams, but Odrick's athleticism makes him a potentially dangerous player.

29. New York Jets - Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
Mock 3.0 pick - Dan Williams
What a great pick-up for the Jets. With Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the corner, they add the near-consensus no. 2 cornerback. Wilson can start out as the nickel corner, with the potential to eventually take over the starting position opposite Revis.

9:45 p.m. - Chris Berman can't stop talking about Brett Favre. What is his deal? Since when did all of ESPN's NFL crew start catering to Favre's feelings?

30. Detroit (via Minnesota) - Jahvid Best (RB, California)
Mock 3.0 pick - Daryl Washington
Detroit has its quarterback of the future, and now they have their apparent running back of the future. Jahvid Best had some injury concerns, but doctors have cleared Best of his issues with concussions. Best is a solid all-around player, and if he stays healthy, the Lions could have themselves quite an offense in a couple years.

31. Indianapolis - Jerry Hughes (DE/OLB, TCU)
Mock 3.0 pick - Jared Odrick
Hughes had a similar grade, in my book, to college teammate Daryl Washington. It's interesting that Sergio Kindle, who has a similar playing style but I have rated higher than Hughes, not get the nod here. Hughes looks to be a good player who fits Indy's defensive scheme.

9:56 p.m. - The Coors Light commercial with Mike Ditka has played at least 136 times this evening. It's getting pretty out of hand. If I never saw that commercial again, I think it would be too soon.

32. New Orleans - Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Mock 3.0 pick - Taylor Mays
The defense needed some attention with this pick, and the defense got it - just not where most people, including me, thought. The addition of Robinson, quite possibly the most talented cornerback not named Joe Haden, could be a great one for the Saints. His support in the run game, as well as potential character issues, are what caused the former Seminole to fall to the last pick of the first round.

10:05 p.m. - Jimmy Clausen, Sergio Kindle and Taylor Mays are the biggest names still on the board. Kindle would be a great fit in St. Louis at no. 33. Clausen could go 34th, to Minnesota, 38th, to Cleveland or 39th, to Oakland. Mays fits a number of places at the front end of the first round as well.

The only team to trade completely out of the first round? My Baltimore Ravens. Wonderful. As of tonight, the Ravens aren't scheduled to hit the clock until the 43rd overall pick, the 11th of the second round. I wish I could say I knew what Ozzie Newsome was planning ... but I can't.

As for the Packers, they ended up grabbing a top-10 talent at no. 23, all while upgrading an aging offensive line. It's quite the win for Green Bay and Packers fans.

We'll see what happens in the upcoming days, as the build to the regular season begins.

NFL picks - Divisional Round

2010-01-15T16:23:00.002-06:00

It took overtime of the weekend's final game, but I avoided the dreaded 0-for weekend. It was close, though ... too close.

One of three featured teams from this year's columns is done, and thankfully, it was the Packers that fell first. Now that the blaming of the refs, as opposed to the defense that allowed 51 points, has subsided, things are pretty quiet here in Titletown.

Some quick analysis before we get to meat of the weekend.

Baltimore - With resounding force, the Ravens stormed into Gillette Stadium and handed the Pats their first home loss of the year, and first home playoff loss of my lifetime. The formula Baltimore used to beat New England should work well against the finesse-driven Colts Saturday night. Will it propel the Ravens to their second straight AFC Championship Game?

Minnesota - After a much-needed week off, the Vikings are apparently dead in the water. Everybody in the world is handing Dallas the victory, which perplexes me. Has the game already been played? Is my pre-season NFC champion already out?

Let's get to the picks.

Arizona (11-6) over New Orleans (13-3)

Logic says the Packers laid the foundation for dominating the Cards' defense in last weekend's shootout in the desert. Armed with the league's most dominant passing game, shouldn't the Saints blow Arizona out of the Superdome?
Not quite. The last time New Orleans had an impressive victory was just after Thanksgiving. The Saints were trying, for the entire game, when they blew a 17-point lead against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers AT HOME. Arizona is hot, Kurt Warner may be on his farewell tour and the Saints have plenty of question marks.
Winning by the proverbial skin of your teeth isn't a game to play with the Cardinals lining up against you. Three of New Orleans' final five wins came by a single-score margin ... against the Rams, Redskins and Falcons. Uh oh.

The Pick: Arizona 31, New Orleans 21

Indianapolis (14-2) over Baltimore (10-7)

To be completely honest, part of the reason I'm picking the Colts is for a reverse jinx. It worked last week and I'm hoping it works again this week.
Logic, however, says the Ravens won't be able to execute their gameplan as well as they did in New England when they roll into Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday night. The Colts are a finesse team, much like the Patriots, so look for the Ravens to implore the same attack this weekend. When these teams met during the regular season, a Joe Flacco interception in Indianapolis territory may have been the only thing standing between the Ravens and the Colts' first loss.
If the Ravens don't turn the ball over and pound the Colts like they did the Patriots, Indy's seemingly magical season will be over quickly. Odds say Baltimore can't do it again.

The Pick: Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 17

Minnesota (13-3) over Dallas (12-5)

News flash: The Dallas Cowboys are suddenly the best team in the history of professional football. Or so every major pundit's reaction would indicate.
After trouncing an up-and-down Eagles team at home in consecutive weeks, the suddenly invincible Cowboys are apparently going to go into the Metrodome and beat a rested Vikings team that hasn't lost at home all year.
I don't buy it.
The Cowboys really haven't seen a defense like Minnesota's all year. The closest they came was a 17-7 loss to Green Bay ... on the road. Tony Romo is suddenly Joe Montana, but who actually believes Romo is going to withstand the heat of the Vikings' pass rush and the deafening noise of the Metrodome? Not this guy.

The Pick: Minnesota 27, Dallas 20

San Diego (13-3) over New York Jets (10-7)

Yup, I'm on the Chargers' bandwagon. Have been for most of the year, in fact. Does that make me the driver? I hope so.
San Diego is my pre-playoff favorite to win it all in Miami next month, and for good reason. The passing game is stellar, the running game is solid (despite being ranked 31st in the league during the regular season) and the defense is playing up to expectation.
New York allowed 169 rushing yards to Cedric Benson last week and won because Carson Palmer couldn't save his own backside. Phillip Rivers is the second-best quarterback in the league (and is pushing Peyton Manning for the top spot) and won't wilt under the playoff pressure. Rivers thrives in pressure situations, and the January expectations couldn't be higher in San Diego.
The Bolts and the Colts clash once again, this time for AFC supremacy.

The Pick: San Diego 31, New York 16

Last week: 1-3
Playoff record: 1-3
Overall season record: 167-93

NFL picks - Wildcard Weekend

2010-01-08T14:27:00.004-06:00

Thanks to a busy weekend, I couldn't wrap the regular season up with a picks column ... but I did manage another 10-win week, putting my grand total to 10 for the year. Not a bad showing.

For the entire season, I've been providing quick analysis before getting to the picks. All three teams highlighted in the quick analysis made the playoffs, two of which will play Sunday. Let's get to it.

Baltimore - Drawing New England probably isn't the best-case scenario, but it could be worse. The Ravens nearly beat the Pats back in October, and with Wes Welker out and Tom Brady banged up, Baltimore has every shot in the world to knock New England out.

Minnesota - On a bye week, the Vikings will know which winner they will play as soon as Saturday night's Eagles-Cowboys game wraps up. If the Iggles win, the Packers-Cardinals winner heads to the Metrodome. If Dallas wins, the 'Boys head to the Twin Cities.

Green Bay - Yes, the Packers have beaten up on the defending NFC champs twice this season. But both of those games didn't see the Arizona starters make it to halftime, so blowing out the Cards a third time will be a much taller task.

Let's get to the picks.

Cincinnati (10-6) over New York Jets (9-7)

Say what you want about the suddenly streaking Jets, but I fail to see just exactly how the Jets are even remotely dangerous in this year's playoffs. Yes, New York smashed the Bengals last weekend, but Carson Palmer played only half the game and Chad Ochocinco was seriously banged up.

When the rematch comes to Paul Brown Stadium Saturday afternoon, it couldn't be more different than last Sunday night's affair. Palmer will likely throw for the zero yards he tallied last weekend and there will be quite a buzz in Cincinnati for only the second playoff game played there in the last 20 years.

The Pick: Cincinnati 24, New York 12.

Philadelphia (11-5) over Dallas (11-5)

Two rematches, two swayed picks thus far.

Dallas has been getting all kinds of credit for being hot as of late, pitching back-to-back shutouts, including last Sunday's 24-0 win over Philly. But do you really think the high-octane Eagles offense is going to lay an egg two weeks in a row?

Last I checked, Wade Phillips is coaching the Cowboys. That doesn't bode well for Jerry Jones and company, especially since Andy Reid hasn't lost a playoff opener as a coach. Ever. Reid may be a putz at times, but more often than not, the man is intelligent. Only Reid and the Eagles know exactly how much of the playbook was unleashed last weekend in Dallas.

The Pick: Philadelphia 31, Dallas 27.

New England (10-6) over Baltimore (9-7)

For all the great things Baltimore could have done this season, they didn't actually get to achieving many of them. One of those could-have-been's was a 27-21 loss at New England in October. If Mark Clayton doesn't drop Joe Flacco's pass at the New England 8 yard line, the Ravens very well may have left Gillette Stadium with a victory.

With that being said, there is nothing in the world stopping the Ravens from heading to Indianapolis next weekend ... except the Ravens. All too often this season, Baltimore has beat itself. That type of flaw is one Bill Belichick and the Patriots will feast upon, especially if trailing late. Look for a close game, but as per the Ravens' M.O. this season, they'll fall short.

The Pick: New England 23, Baltimore 20.

Arizona (10-6) over Green Bay (11-5)

This game was easily the hardest game to pick of the weekend, and a Packers victory wouldn't surprise me in the least bit.

Despite compiling one of the NFC's best records, the Packers have struggled mightily against elite quarterbacks. Brett Favre torched them twice and Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards against them. Enter Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals' offense.

Anquan Boldin's availability, and effectiveness, is a serious question heading into Sunday's late game, but the Cards did just fine without Boldin anywhere near 100 percent against Carolina and Philadelphia in last year's playoffs. With the starters playing the entire game, and the team quietly irked at Mike McCarthy's decision to run up the score in last week's meeting, as well as during the preseason, look for the defending NFC champs to head to Minnesota.

The Pick: Arizona 34, Green Bay 28.

Last week: 10-6
Week 16: 14-2
Overall regular season record: 166-90

2010 BCS National Title Game - LIVE!!!

2010-01-07T19:05:00.014-06:00

As these words are being typed, three teams in the Division I Bowl Subdivision stand undefeated. By the time the clock strikes midnight, there will only be two, and one will be crowned national champion.

Even though no. 1 Alabama is the overwhelming favorite, the nation's top team has won the national title game only once in the last seven years. Add to the fact that only one Heisman Trophy winner has won a BCS title game, and it appears history stands in the corner of the Longhorns.

By the end of the night, we will know which team should take on Boise State for the undisputed national championship. Between now and then, I'm coming to you live from the Pez Cave for the second year in a row. Sounds like a tradition, eh?

Tide ... Texas ... Title? Terrible.

7:14 p.m. - Lou Holtz cannot handle himself tonight. It's as though Holtz downed a six-pack of 5-Hour Energy before he went on air. Out of control.

In other news, I'm making my pre-game pick well before kickoff. The pick? Alabama 23, Texas 21.

7:34 - Josh Groban performs the National Anthem ... with Flea on bass. Is that the type of night we're in store for?

7:36 - Pez's nickname joke for tonight is calling Colt McCoy Magnum C.M. Just dropped the first one of the night, immediately after telling Brent Musberger to "go to hell." Hilarious stuff. We're set up for a good night.

7:38 - Pez is openly cheering for Texas, all the while blasting Alabama at every turn. The pace is quickening.

7:40 - Taco Bell is presenting the starting line-ups. Does that come with gut rot for the evening also?

7:42 - Alabama comes out and promptly moves the ball 13 yards the wrong way. Then Nick Saban calls a fake punt on fourth and 23. Epic stupidity from the Alabama sideline early in this one.

7:46 - "Colt is hurt." Evidently, Brent Musberger is tight with Colt McCoy. Who knew? Didn't really see the injury, but I'm guessing McCoy just got the wind knocked out of him. We'll see upon return from commercial.

7:49 - Looks like McCoy's injury may be legit. Ought to be interesting to see how this develops.

7:53 - McCoy heads to the locker room as Alabama shuts the Texas offense down at the goal line.
Texas 3, Alabama 0

7:57 - Alabama apparently forgot to show up to the game. How does NO Alabama player jump on the kickoff? Were they unaware of the fact that a kickoff is a live ball?

7:59 - 42-yard kick by Hunter Lawrence puts three more on the board after Alabama's terrible special teams gaffe. I think I can hear Nick Saban seething from here.
Texas 6, Alabama 0

8:04 p.m. - Three sacks in five dropbacks for Alabama. This might be a problem for the Tide.

8:07 - Dr. Dre makes his second appearance of the first quarter. Good stuff.

8:15 - Mark Ingram is starting to look like a Heisman winner. The power and vision he's running with is quite impressive. The Tide will try to punch it in as the second quarter begins.

End of first quarter: Texas 6, Alabama 0

8:42 - Thanks to an internet crash, I lost most of my comments from the second quarter. Here's a recap of what transpired:
- The tone of the game has taken a 180-deree turn. Texas looks sloppy and 'Bama is looking sharp.
- Playing quarterback for Texas means you're going to get injured.
- We decided Trent Richardson looks like Kofi Kingston.
- We also decided to have a competition to see who appears more during the
game, Dr. Dre and the guy that's on the Allstate commercials. It's currently tied at 2.
- A dropped touchdown pass in the endzone leads to a Texas turnover. Things aren't looking good for the Longhorns.

8:48 - Texas' defense is going to keep them in the game. Not sure if the offense will come around enough to put some points on 'Bama, though.

Also, Pez makes his second Magnum C.M. reference. McCoy's injury is really hampering the development of this joke.

8:59 - My Facebook is being stupid. Leigh Tiffin knocks in a short field goal to give the Tide an 11-point lead at halftime.
Alabama 17, Texas 6

9:01 p.m. - Kirk Herbstreit says Texas is on a slide. Really, Kirk? Giving up 17 unanswered points is a slump? Who knew?

9:03 - A ridiculous turn of events leads to a freak interception return for a touchdown. The Tide may be staking an early claim to the national title.
Alabama 24, Texas 6

9:06 - What a second quarter for Alabama. Mack Brown dancing around the McCoy question doesn't bode well for the Longhorns. Things better change, and fast, if Texas wants to stay in this game.

Halftime: Alabama 24, Texas 6

10:16 p.m. - For the second time tonight, an internet error lost content for the blog. This time, it was the entire third quarter. Here's another recap:
- Pez and I announced our backing for the 2010 Boise State Broncos and their run to a potential national title run. With a potential top 5 preseason ranking, Boise State has the first legit shot of a non-BCS team to make it to the BCS title game.
- Pez and I also had a terribly inappropriate conversation. It was so bad, in fact, that I cannot publish anything said during the conversation without compromising my journalistic integrity. What I can say, however, is that actions often seen at Walmart were compared to something horrendously vulgar.
- Texas' offense was starting to click at the end of the third quarter. Momentum began to shift as the third quarter came to a close.

End of third quarter: Alabama 24, Texas 13

10:21 - A pair of weak penalties bring the Crimson Tide into Texas territory. Another touchdown here and this one is over.

10:24 - Leigh Tiffin, one of the country's best kickers, misses a 52-yard field goal. I don't care who you are, there aren't too many college kickers that can regularly make kicks from that long. A punt may have served Alabama better.

10:26 - Pez and I are man-crushing on Vince Young. He looks like a badass on the Texas sideline.

10:28 - Tre Newton's catch is under review. With the ruling on the field being a completed pass, the refs made the right call to not overturn that.

10:32 - Big third-down pass to Shipley gets Texas a much-needed first down. A score here makes this one interesting contest.

10:34 - Jordan Shipley is coming up big time and time again. Meanwhile, Kirk Herbstreit calls Rolando McClain "Orlando."

10:35 - Shipley burns his man and gets wide open for Gilbert. A laser pass converts the two-point conversion and we have ourselves a ball game!

10:40 - There is way too much man-touching happening in the Texas booth. The coordinators may need a cold shower should the Longhorns take the lead.

10:43 - On the biggest play of the game, Texas forces an incompletion and a punt. 3:21 remains before Texas gets the ball with a chance to tie ... or take the lead.

10:49 - A HUGE sack causes a fumble and Alabama recovers at the Texas 3. This one, for all intents and purposes, appears to be over.

10:54 - Mark Ingram can add national champion to his list of career accomplishments. A one-yard touchdown run, Ingram's second of the game, gives Alabama the 10-point lead.
Alabama 31, Texas 21

10:59 - Gilbert tosses his third pick and that will end it. Javier Arenas falls to the ground and the Tide will run out the clock and claim its first national title in 18 years.

11:02 p.m. - Pez and I are in agreeance: The final touchdown was entirely unnecessary. The clock could have been run out and, instead, Nick Saban chose to throw on another touchdown. I don't think the football gods will be very impressed with that move.
Alabama 37, Texas 21

11:06 - A fluke pick and this one will end with Greg McElroy kneeling on it.

Final: Alabama 37, Texas 21

11:12 - Initial post-game reaction from both Pez and I: Nick Saban is an enormous egomaniac and lost a ton of respect from both of us. The comment, "It isn't just because of me," in reference to the team's success, was the perfect example of what kind of guy Saban is.

11:17 - Mark Ingram and Marcell Dareus are named Offensive and Defensive Player of the Game. A good pick for both, as Ingram was the driving force behind Alabama's offense and Dareus scored at the end of the first half on the crazy interception.

The college football season is over, but there is one thing I, for one, would like to see:

Boise State v. Alabama.

NFL picks - Week 16

2009-12-25T00:42:00.003-06:00

For the second year in a row, I missed a weekly picks column. Last year, I don't quite remember why it was. This year, I was celebrating my girlfriend's college graduation with a cast of ... some.

Despite my lack of a column, I had my best picks record since Week 11. I'll take it.

Time for some quick analysis.

Baltimore - After beating up on also-rans Detroit and Chicago, the Ravens face their final stiff test of the year in Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon. It's simple for Baltimore: Win Sunday and one of the AFC's wildcard spots is theirs to lose. Lose to Pittsburgh and things get awfully interesting.

Minnesota - Are the wheels falling off in Minnesota? Brett Favre is pulling his yearly diva stint to cover up the fact that he's been painfully mundane over the past few weeks. If the Childress-Favre spat, as well as Favre's play on the field, doesn't shape up in the next couple of weeks, Vikings fans can prepare for another January disappointment.

Green Bay - The Packers would have to get pretty creative to miss the playoffs. Losing to the NFC West-champion Cardinals isn't a far cry from reality, but losing Sunday to Seattle probably is. Should the Pack fall this weekend, next Sunday could be a very, very interesting trip to the desert.

Let's get to the picks.

San Diego (11-3) over Tennessee (7-7)

This game about defensive inability, and which one will be more prevalent. The Chargers haven't excelled against the run and Chris Johnson is the league's most explosive player. The Titans, despite winning six of their last seven, still can't defend the pass. As Peyton Manning showed, a great quarterback can take down Tennessee. News flash: Phillip Rivers is great.

Atlanta (7-7) over Buffalo (5-9)

Despite a plethora of injuries, the Falcons have been playing pretty damn well. Even with Michael Turner still questionable this week, the Falcons should take advantage of Buffalo's lackluster run defense.

Cincinnati (9-5) over Kansas City (3-11)

While the Chiefs have shown flashes of brilliance, Cincinnati's first home game after the death of Chris Henry will bring even more motivation to Sunday's game. Look for the Bengals to cruise to victory, clinching the AFC North title.

Cleveland (3-11) over Oakland (5-9)

Don't look now, but the Browns suddenly aren't inept. Jerome Harrison likely won't run for another 286 yards Sunday, but the Raiders have struggled against inferior opponents. Case in point: Four of Oakland's five victories have come against teams currently above .500.

Green Bay (9-5) over Seattle (5-9)

Rejoice, Packers fans. After a year away from January football, your beloved team returns to the playoffs thanks to a Seahawks team that is beat up and doesn't travel well. Look for a little extra motivation in Titletown this weekend, as the next meaningful game played at Lambeau Field won't take place until September 2010.

Pittsburgh (7-7) over Baltimore (8-6)

Do I think my Ravens can sweep the hated Steelers? Not really. The Steelers have a tendency to come up big when Baltimore visits Heinz Field, and the return of Troy Polamalu won't help Baltimore's chances much. If the Ravens secondary comes to play, however, Baltimore could all but sew up one of the AFC's hotly contested wildcard spots.

Houston (7-7) over Miami (7-7)

Playing against a less-than-stellar pass defense (and possibly for coach Gary Kubiak's job), the Texans will take every second of Sunday's game in Miami to vanquish the Dolphins. Make no mistake about it: The loser of this game can kiss the playoffs goodbye.

New England (9-5) over Jacksonville (7-7)

What exactly has Jacksonville done this season to make me, or anyone else, believe they can go to Foxborough, in December, and beat the Patriots?

New Orleans (13-1) over Tampa Bay (2-12)

As if the Bucs needed any less of a chance in this game, the previously undefeated Saints, who were gunning for 19-0, are newly motivated. Yikes.

Carolina (6-8) over New York Giants (8-6)

I guess that 2-6 stretch for New York is going to catch up after all. Carolina is deceptively good against the pass, and any team that can give Eli Manning fits definitely has a chance. Ball control and a stingy defense give the Panthers the upset victory.

Arizona (9-5) over St. Louis (1-13)

Ndamukong Suh won't have far to move come springtime. Lincoln isn't far from St. Louis, so searching for a house in the Gateway City is something Suh can get started on rather soon.

San Francisco (6-8) over Detroit (2-12)

For some reason, the Niners have a tendency to just run away from inferior opponents while playing well under the competition when their opponent is strong. Luckily for San Fran, the Lions are nowhere near the latter.

Philadelphia (10-4) over Denver (8-6)

Rumors have been flying around the NFL world this week that Brian Westbrook may call it a career after this season ends. If this is, in fact, Westbrook's final regular-season game in Philly, the Eagles won't let it end on a sour note. Denver is slipping and Kyle Orton isn't exactly the best guy to help lead a turn-around.

Indianapolis (14-0) over New York Jets (7-7)

The only realistic chance the Jets have is if Indy's starters don't play a full game. It looks like they will, however, and despite New York's strong defense, Mark Sanchez's penchant for turnovers will result in the ultimate demise of the Jets' playoff hopes.

Dallas (9-5) over Washington (4-10)

Last week illustrated one thing: Washington is a mess of a football team. Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell are lame ducks and there is so leadership in the running game. On the bright side, Brian Orakpo seems to be a budding star and a leader of the future for Washington's defense.

Chicago (5-9) over Minnesota (11-3)

Despite every bit of logic telling me otherwise, I'm taking the Bears. Jay Cutler is a liability, Matt Forte is having a down year and the Bears just got smacked by the Ravens. On the other hand, a rift may be forming in the Minnesota locker room and Brett Favre has been atrocious in cold-weather games as of late. Futhermore, the Panthers laid out a blueprint for beating the Vikings, a gameplan the Bears will follow to victory Monday night.

Last week: 11-5
Week 14: 10-6
Season record: 142-82

NFL picks - Week 14

2009-12-12T15:07:00.002-06:00

Last week ranks right up there in the worst single weeks I've had as an NFL fan.

For starters, the Steelers forgot to send me a copy of the memo informing everyone that they are awful now. I picked my least favorite team in the NFL to win against the Raiders for my Eliminator Challenge, and they lost.

Continuing with failed memos sent, my Ravens forgot to tell me they were going to continue to let me down for the remainder of the season. A lackluster performance on Monday night lost me the chance to gloat about how great the Ravens are since all of my Packers fans friends will remind me of one score: 27-14.

Ugh. Let's put last week into the past and get to some fast analysis.

Baltimore - It's this simple: The Ravens must win their remaining four games to make the playoffs. The only speed bump could be a visit to Pittsburgh in the regular season's next-to-last game. Detroit, Chicago and Oakland should give Baltimore three wins, but the game against the hated Steelers is the key to any Ravens playoff hopes.

Minnesota - Welcome back to earth, Minnesota Vikings. The defending NFC champs played the part perfectly in handily beating the Vikings Sunday night. The road doesn't get much easier this week, as the Vikings host the AFC North-leading Bengals.

Green Bay - Fine, I'll admit it: The Packers are for real. I think. At 8-4, they're a pretty decent position with only four games left. If Aaron Rodgers and company play their cards right, 11-5 is very, very doable.

Let's get to the picks.

Pittsburgh (6-6) over Cleveland (1-11)

There is really no good reason to think the defending Super Bowl champs will lose to the worst team in professional football ... right? Well, that's what I thought before Thursday's 13-6 Browns victory. How the Steelers lost this game is beyond me, but the playoffs are probably now beyond Pittsburgh.

New Orleans (12-0) over Atlanta (6-6)

Once again, injuries to Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will cost the Falcons dearly. Ryan and Turner are both game-time decisions for tomorrow's game, but the Falcons will be hindered by the hindrances of their backfield duo. If Ryan and Turner play - and play well - watch out for the huge upset.

Chicago (5-7) over Green Bay (8-4)

Solely based on my preseason prediction of Green Bay and Chicago splitting their two games this year, with the home team winning each, I'm taking Chicago. It's going to be a tough road for the Bears, with Devin Hester out and Jay Cutler, unfortunately, starting. The Bears always play the Pack tough at Soldier Field, though.

Denver (8-4) over Indianapolis (12-0)

For as good as the Colts have been, they haven't been very dominant at home. Enter the Broncos, sporting the league's second-ranked pass defense. If this game goes to the ground, the home team is in trouble - the Colts rank last in the NFL in rushing offense. Peyton Manning can't win 'em all for Indy.

New York Jets (6-6) over Tampa Bay (1-11)

After thinking about this game for quite a while, the stats told me the Buccaneers are 30th against the run. The Jets? No. 1 in rushing offense. Trouble. Interception-prone Mark Sanchez is out this week, meaning Kellen Clemens should have been practicing his hand-offs early and often in practice this week.

Jacksonville (7-5) over Miami (6-6)

A game with huge playoff implications is being played in Jacksonville and Jacksonville Municipal Stadium might be half-full. Can the Jags just move to L.A. now and get it over with?

Baltimore (6-6) over Detroit (2-10)

I'm really sick of picking the Ravens to win, only to watch them lose. If Baltimore can't beat the Lions, the season should end Sunday night. It's time to forget losing in Baltimore, because the next Ravens loss will end their season.

Houston (5-7) over Seattle (5-7)

The Texans have lost their last four games, each by a single score, to very good teams. How does Seattle match up with a Texans offense full of weapons, even with the absence of Steve Slaton?

Minnesota (10-2) over Cincinnati (9-3)

These teams are too similar to make a pick on the surface. Both teams have strong running games, tough defenses and good quarterbacks. The difference in this: Cincinnati hasn't beaten a team currently at or above .500 since Week 9. Before that, it was Week 2, when the Bengals beat a Packers team with no offensive line stability.

New England (7-5) over Carolina (5-7)

One stat says it all: The Patriots are 6-0 at home. Do you really think the Panthers can come in and beat the Patriots in bad weather?

Tennessee (5-7) over St. Louis (1-11)

Surprisingly, this game features the league's two leading rushers. The difference between the Titans and Rams is Tennessee can actually stop the run. That, and they don't have a liability named Kyle Boller under center.

Oakland (4-8) over Washington (3-9)

The last two times the Redskins were favored heading into kickoff, they lost ... to the Chiefs and Lions. Ouch. At 1.5-point favorites, look for the Redskins to do what they do best: lose. At least they'll be in the Jimmy Clausen Sweepstakes come April.

San Diego (9-3) over Dallas (8-4)

For the Cowboys to win this game, they will need to run all over San Diego's defense while shutting down Phillip Rivers. On top of that, Tony Romo will have to have a big game. Too many wild cards give the Bolts the edge.

Philadelphia (8-4) over New York Giants (7-5)

When it comes down to it, I just don't feel very confident pegging my pick behind Eli Manning in what amounts to a must-win game for the Giants. A Philadelphia win gives the Eagles a huge edge in the playoff race, and with the Packers hot on Philly's heels, the Giants will be in trouble.

Arizona (8-4) over San Francisco (5-7)

After throttling the NFC's second-best team, the Cardinals made a case to be in the discussion with Minnesota and New Orleans for the favorite to represent the conference in Miami. The Niners caught Arizona at the worst possible time, and likely will find out first-hand Monday night.

Last week: 9-7
Season record: 121-71

NFL picks - Week 13

2009-12-05T20:27:00.003-06:00

Unlucky week 13 in the NFL is upon us.

Make-or-break games dot this week's landscape, as contests with considerable playoff ramifications kick off in Atlanta, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New York, Glendale and Green Bay.

This week also marks the biggest game for me as a fan, as my Baltimore Ravens make their once-every-eight-years trip to Titletown for a Monday night tilt.

Some fast analysis before we get into the picks.

Baltimore - A pessimist could say it was a Dennis Dixon gaffe in overtime that handed the win to Baltimore last week. An optimist could say it was the win the Ravens needed to keep their playoff hopes alive. Monday night's result at Lambeau Field will tell the true story.

Minnesota - Ho hum. Another win for the Vikings, who can clinch the NFC North with a Packers loss and a victory over Arizona. Neither feat is anything close to a certainty, but it's definitely possible for Brad Childress' crew.

Green Bay - The Packers proved me wrong by beating up on the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Will a thrashing of the hapless Lions and a couple extra days off give the Packers an advantage when Baltimore rolls into Titletown Monday night?

Let's get to the picks.

New York Jets (5-6) over Buffalo (4-7)

The league's best rushing offense clashes with the league's worst rushing defense. Exactly what reason does anyone have to believe the Bills leave Toronto winners?

Philadelphia (7-4) over Atlanta (6-5)

Injuries to Matt Ryan and Michael Turner seem to be too much for the Falcons to overcome. The Falcons are currently undefeated at home, but all of those wins came with Ryan and Turner in the backfield.

Chicago (4-7) over St. Louis (1-10)

Jay Cutler may be pretty bad, but St. Louis' pass defense is probably worse. Pair that with the Rams' general inability to stop the run and the outlook is finally positive for a Bears team that has struggled mightily as of late.

Cincinnati (8-3) over Detroit (2-9)

The Bengals rank seventh in the league in interceptions forced and Matthew Stafford throws more picks than anyone not named Jay Cutler. Turnovers will kill any time, especially a team that is overmatched at most positions, a place the Lions find themselves this weekend.

Indianapolis (11-0) over Tennessee (5-6)

Chris Johnson should be named the league's MVP when the season comes to a close, but it will probably be the guy lining up under center opposite Johnson, Peyton Manning. Despite Tennessee's recent hot streak, the Titans still rank 31st against the pass. That's kind of a problem when Peyton Manning is tossing the pigskin against you.

Kansas City (3-8) over Denver (7-4)

Sunday's forecast at Arrowhead isn't looking pretty: temperature around 40 with a mix of rain and snow. Adverse weather conditions are one thing, but counting on a rookie running back and Kyle Orton to not turn the ball over in a hostile environment is a sketchy bet. The Broncos don't have a good track record at Arrowhead in December, and stadiums can sometimes hold a black cloud over certain teams.

New Orleans (11-0) over Washington (3-8)

After last week's dismantling of the Patriots, the only question remaining regarding the Saints is if 19-0 is really that important to them. If they go the route Indianapolis will likely go - that is, resting starters once home-field advantage is locked up - we won't see a second run at perfection. If not, 19-0 is definitely within reach.

Carolina (4-7) over Tampa Bay (1-10)

The key to the game for Carolina is to run. Run hard and run often. The Bucs are atrocious against the run and the Panthers have plenty in their backfield to madden the Buccaneers. Carolina's pass defense should keep them in the game should things get a little out of control early.

Jacksonville (6-5) over Houston (5-6)

As Chris Johnson proved, running against the Texans isn't terribly hard to do. Enter Maurice Jones-Drew, who will capitalize on Houston's sub-par run defense to the tune of a big game to keep the Jags in the AFC playoff race.

Pittsburgh (6-5) over Oakland (3-8)
**Eliminator Pick**

Last week, I picked a team I hate and it worked out pretty well. Why not go with it again? The Steelers need wins fast if they wish to defend their Super Bowl title, and Oakland is a good team to start piling up W's against.

New England (7-4) over Miami (5-6)

Do you really think Tom Brady, Randy Moss and company aren't fuming after getting skunked by the Saints on national television last Monday night? Miami is not in an enviable position this weekend.

San Diego (8-3) over Cleveland (1-10)

Remember how the Browns are terrible and all that? Trying to right a sinking ship against the Chargers will push Cleveland further toward no. 1 in April's draft.

Seattle (4-7) over San Francisco (5-6)

A gut game. My gut tells me the Niners won't bring their A-game to Seattle and the Seahawks will eke out a last-second win.

Dallas (8-3) over New York Giants (6-5)

The wheels are starting to fall off for the Giants. Word coming out of New York says Osi Umenyiora might not start because of his inability to play strong against the run. Couple that with the injured and ineffective Eli Manning and the cards don't look good for New York.

Minnesota (10-1) over Arizona (7-4)

Not having Kurt Warner to lead the Cardinals in a blow-for-blow battle with the Vikings could be a knockout punch. Arizona is good against the run, but Brett Favre will likely have another strong performance as Minnesota continues to nip at the heels of the undefeated Saints.

Baltimore (6-5) over Green Bay (7-4)

Call me a homer, but I like to play the match-ups. Joe Flacco has suddenly and inexplicably been downgraded to dog-meat status in the ranks of NFL quarterbacks, even though his numbers this year are better than they were last year. Injuries to Al Harris and Aaron Kampman will dampen Green Bay's ability to stop the jack-of-all-trades Ray Rice.

Last week: 8-8
Season record: 112-64

NFL picks - Week 12

2009-11-26T20:35:00.003-06:00

Last week was much better than the week before ... except for Baltimore blowing a winnable game at home against the undefeated Colts. One day, the Ravens will start winning close games. I'm just not sure when that day will come.

This week's picks come in a bit late thanks to the holiday and the lack of cooperation from my internet connection. My Thanksgiving Day picks were posted via Facebook (I split the day's first two games) but I'll include them for the sake of continuity.

Some fast analysis before we get to the picking.

Baltimore - Another game against a quality opponent, another narrow loss. Were it not for a costly Joe Flacco interception, the Ravens may have knocked off the Colts. The road doesn't get any easier for Baltimore, as the nation will watch them clash with the hated Steelers Sunday night.

Minnesota - Another game, another easy win. Brett Favre is in the full swing of his Ted Thompson Revenge Tour, which may end in Miami Feb. 7. The sputtering Bears provide Minnesota a potential trap game before a trip to the desert next week.

Green Bay - Another lackluster opponent, another victory. Thanks to today's drubbing of the Lions, the Packers are now 7-4 and in firm control of their playoff destiny. The schedule buckles down from here on out, as the remaining five opponents (Baltimore, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Seattle and Arizona) present at least three potential losses. Will 9-7 be good enough to get the Pack back to the postseason?

Let's get to the picks.

Thanksgiving Day picks

Detroit (2-8) over Green Bay (6-4)

So I suck. I was convinced the winds of a perfect storm were blowing in Detroit, but the only thing blowing in Detroit was Matthew Stafford's performance. Green Bay looked decent and now have nearly a week and a half to prepare for a Monday night clash with the Ravens.

Dallas (7-3) over Oakland (3-7)

How often has anyone been able to trust Bruce Gradkowski to engineer back-to-back upsets, the second of which to be broadcast on national television? Exactly. The Cowboys bounced back after two consecutive lackluster performances and look poised to close out the NFC East.

New York Giants (6-4) over Denver (6-4)

As I write this, the Giants trail 16-0 at halftime. Yikes. Eli Manning is morphing into his usual December form a few days early, meaning any hopes of Giants games after the first weekend in January are dwindling by the hour. Denver needs this win to stay in the playoff race as well.

Sunday's picks

Atlanta (6-4) over Tampa Bay (1-9)

Atlanta hasn't lost at home and Tampa hasn't won on the road this year. With that being said, I still think the Bucs have a shot in this one. They'd have a better shot if they didn't have the league's worst rush defense, something the Falcons will take advantage of Sunday. This one will be closer than expected, though.

Buffalo (3-7) over Miami (5-5)

Though the Bills have had their issues stopping the run, they held Maurice Jones-Drew to just 66 yards in interim head coach Perry Fewell's debut. Ronnie Brown won't be running the Wildcat, meaning the most dangerous part of Miami's running game won't be nearly as effective. This team's lead the league in fourth-quarter points allowed, and with Buffalo's superior pass defense (and the cool weather in Buffalo) the Bills eke out the upset.

Cincinnati (7-3) over Cleveland (1-9)
**Eliminator Pick**

I never like picking teams I can't stand, but this seems like my safest pick to remain in the Eliminator Challenge running. The Bengals were stunned by a lesser Raiders team last week, which should mean they will be extra focused as the rival Browns come to town. Brady Quinn likely isn't capable of leading Cleveland to a huge upset in Cincinnati.

St. Louis (1-9) over Seattle (3-7)

While the Rams clearly stink, the Seahawks do as well. The difference? Steven Jackson. St. Louis has been surprisingly competitive against superior opponents the last two weeks, so when the aging and undermanned Seahawks come to town, the slight advantage falls to the Rams. If Kyle Boller pulls a Jay Cutler, though, the Rams don't stand a chance.

Carolina (4-6) over New York Jets (4-6)

This game may very well come down to Mark Sanchez's ability to lead the Jets late in the game. Considering Sanchez has been downright bad over the past seven games, I don't have too much faith in New York's chances. Carolina sports one of the best and most opportunistic pass defenses in the league, meaning Sanchez's problems will likely continue.

Philadelphia (6-4) over Washington (3-7)

Too many things need to go right for the injury-plagued Redskins to pull out the upset. Amongst other things, Jason Campbell actually needs to play well, which hasn't exactly happened often this season. Green Bay's victory keeps the pressure on Philly for the wildcard lead in the NFC, meaning Andy Reid's crew should be ready to go Sunday.

Indianapolis (10-0) over Houston (5-5)

I looked and looked and looked some more for a statistical backing for this pick ... and I couldn't find anything. As I often say, sometimes I just have to go with my gut. My gut says this one is close, but the Colts sneak out another close victory and put the Texans' playoff hopes in serious jeopardy.

San Diego (7-3) over Kansas City (3-7)

San Diego is rolling, plain and simple. Phillip Rivers has been strong all season and the Chargers' running attack is coming around. That isn't good news for Kansas City's struggling defense. Look for the Chargers to continue rolling and remain atop the AFC West.

Jacksonville (6-4) over San Francisco (4-6)

Maurice Jones-Drew was held in check by Buffalo, one of the league's worst run defenses, last week. San Francisco sports the league's sixth-best rushing defense, but another down week for Jones-Drew just doesn't seem likely. If, however, the Jags have issues stopping San Francisco's passing attack, look for the Niners to take this one.

Arizona (7-3) over Tennessee (4-6)

Though the Titans have won their last four games, they still have the league's second-worst passing defense. That tends to be a problem when the pass-happy Cardinals roll into town. Chris Johnson will have to slice up the NFL's no. 8 run defense for the Titans to stay in this one. He likely will, but he can't play defense, too.

Minnesota (9-1) over Chicago (4-6)

Were the Lions able to beat the Packers, a Minnesota victory would have, essentially, sewn up the division with a win over Chicago. Detroit didn't hold up its end of the bargain, but the Vikings will.

Pittsburgh (6-4) over Baltimore (5-5)

Call this a reverse jinx. Maybe if I pick the Ravens to lose against a quality opponent, they'll pull out a victory for once. I'd rather take a loss on my picks record than watch Baltimore fall under .500 for the season.

New England (7-3) over New Orleans (10-0)

The true comparison between the Saints and Colts could be complete if New Orleans were to take out the Patriots Monday night. Unfortunately for fans in the Big Easy, that won't happen. Though New England leads the AFC East, it is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs and Bill Belichick will be looking to make up for his gaffe in Indianapolis. New England will take a huge step back into the conversation of the league's elite with a victory. New Orleans will take a huge step toward an easier trip to Miami with a victory.

Last week: 11-5
Season record: 104-56

NFL picks - Week 11

2009-11-19T13:18:00.005-06:00

Last week was a rough one for me. It took Monday night's Ravens win to get me over .500 for the week, only the second time all season I had more than five incorrect picks in one week. Baltimore also may have lost Terrell Suggs for the season thanks to Brady Quinn's horrendously illegal and unnecessary chop block.

It was a good week for the other teams in my life, as the Vikings cruised to 8-1 and the Packers beat the Cowboys in all facets of the game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Some quick analysis from Week 10.

Baltimore - A goose egg in the first half against the Browns was a clear indicator that the offense is sputtering. Ray Rice is having a spectacular year and may be responsible - partially or entirely - for Baltimore's win Monday night. Things won't be nearly as easy against the undefeated Colts, though.

Minnesota - Another lackluster opponent, another easy win. Talk of locking up the division is already underway, with the Vikings holding what amounts to a four-game lead over the Packers. With no more than three quasi-difficult games remaining, the road to Miami may run through the Metrodome.

Green Bay - For the first time all year, the Packers lived up to the high expectations thrust upon them this summer. After Sunday's win, 7-4 is a definite possibility leading down the stretch of the season. Four of Green Bay's final five games - Baltimore (Dec. 7), at Chicago (Dec. 13), at Pittsburgh (Dec. 20), at Arizona (Jan. 3) - will be true tests. Going from 7-4 to anything better than 8-8 will be a tough task for the green and gold.

Let's get to the picks.

Carolina (4-5) over Miami (4-5)

The Wildcat is a lot more effective when Ronnie Brown is running it, and Brown won't be running anywhere for quite a while after being diagnosed with the terrible Lisfranc foot fracture. The Panthers have been hot and have been quietly effective shutting down the pass. A big momentum win for Carolina.

Detroit (1-8) over Cleveland (1-8)

For some reason, many people make the Lions out to be the worst team in the NFL. In reality, it is Cleveland, which is worse than the Lions and Detroit is starting a rookie quarterback. Both teams are terrible, but the Lions are statistically less terrible. Detroit also has weapons on offense (Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith) which should lead them to victory and push Cleveland closer the no. 1 overall pick in April.

Green Bay (5-4) over San Francisco (4-5)

The wheels of momentum are turning in Green Bay. Last week's 17-7 victory over Dallas was huge in the grand scheme of things, keeping the Packers in the wildcard discussion. Wins over San Francisco this week and Detroit on Thanksgiving are musts, as the easiest of Green Bay's final five games is the regular-season home finale against the Seahawks Dec. 27.

Pittsburgh (6-3) over Kansas City (2-7)

If Pittsburgh were to somehow lose this one, its chances to win the AFC North would vanish. A finish of no worse than 5-2 gives the Steelers their only shot, and this is a good place for the defending Super Bowl champs to get to work.

Dallas (6-3) over Washington (3-6)

Despite Washington leading the league in pass defense, the Redskins defense can't stop the run to save itself. That would be OK against some teams, but when Marion Barber and Felix Jones are running against you, it's a problem. Look for a surprisingly close game with the 'Boys pulling out the victory.

New York Giants (5-4) over Atlanta (5-4)

Forget the fact that Michael Turner probably won't play in this game. Of Atlanta's five victories this season, none have come against a team with a winning record. Furthermore, the Falcons are 1-4 on the road. Giants Stadium isn't exactly the place to try to turn around a paltry road record. Sorry, Falcons fans.

New Orleans (9-0) over Tampa Bay (1-8)

For some reason, the Saints decided to make things close in St. Louis last weekend. Sean Payton's crew would do well not to look past the Bucs and on to next week's titanic match-up against the Patriots. Even if they get caught looking ahead, the Bucs don't have what it takes to hold off Drew Brees.

Jacksonville (5-4) over Buffalo (3-6)

The only way Buffalo beats the Jaguars is if Buffalo holds Maurice Jones-Drew in check. That will be tough, considering the Bills just fired their coach and have the worst rushing defense in the NFL.

Baltimore (5-4) over Indianapolis (9-0)

It's been a series of near misses for the Ravens this year. A dropped pass 4th-down pass at the New England eight yard line in the final minutes. A missed field goal in Minnesota as time expired. A last-minute, game-winning drive by the Bengals the first time around. That's the difference between 5-4 and 8-1 for Baltimore, which is playing with a sense of urgency. Baltimore as seven-point dogs, at home, seems a bit ridiculous. Joe Flacco bounces back against Indy's young corners and the Ravens finally end up on the right side of a last-minute win.

Minnesota (8-1) over Seattle (3-6)

The Seahawks would actually have a chance if they had a decent offense. Unfortunately for Jim Mora and company, they don't. Adrian Peterson may not run wild, but Brett Favre should take advantage of Seattle's pass defense to lead the Vikings to 9-1.

Arizona (6-3) over St. Louis (1-8)
**Eliminator Pick**

I'm wary of this pick, since St. Louis ended my Eliminator Challenge season last year. It wasn't against the Cardinals, though. The defending NFC champs are perfect on the road this season but need to get their running game back on track. What better place to do so than the home of the 28th-ranked run defense?

San Diego (6-3) over Denver (6-3)

My belief in San Diego and my lack of confidence in Denver is finally backed up. Hopefully I don't get it thrown back in my face by the Chargers, the league's worst running offense. The Broncos have struggled as of late while the Bolts have been hot. Why mess with momentum?

Cincinnati (7-2) over Oakland (2-7)

Watch out for the Bengals. After this week's game in Oakland, Cincinnati gets Cleveland next week and the Lions the week after. Likely 10-2 at that point, the Bengals, at worst, will finish 11-5 ... and that's if the Chargers (Week 15) and Jets (Week 17) take down the AFC North leaders. Could it be the Bengals nabbing the AFC's other first-round playoff bye?

New England (6-3) over New York Jets (4-5)

Four of the Jets' five losses have come against sub-.500 teams. The Patriots had no business losing in Indianapolis, so coming home to play the rival Jets shouldn't affect the Pats much. Finally, the Patriots are one of four teams undefeated at home. The odds aren't leaning too favorably in New York's favor.

Philadelphia (5-4) over Chicago (4-5)

Only two teams have more interceptions than Philadelphia's defense. Nobody has thrown more interceptions than Jay Cutler. When you turn the ball over against a team like Philly, things don't usually end well. So much for Chicago finally having a franchise quarterback.

Houston (5-4) over Tennessee (3-6)

The Titans may have won their last three games, but in none of those games did the opposing quarterback actually play well. Matt Schaub and Houston's potent passing attack is rested and, in the season's first meeting between these two teams, Schaub had a huge game. Chris Johnson ran wild in Week 2, but the Titans still lost. Can Vince Young be the difference? I doubt it.

Last week: 8-7
Season record: 93-51

NFL picks - Week 10

2009-11-11T13:46:00.005-06:00

I never really liked the NFL Network and it's unnecessary broadcasting of Thursday night football games. The network's broadcasting of regular season game begins tonight, forcing my picks column to go up three days before the lion's share of this week's games are played.

What happened to the only Thursday games being played on Thanksgiving?

Some quick analysis from Week 9.

Baltimore - Ugh. The Ravens are in trouble. Joe Flacco had his first off game of 2009 and it couldn't have come at a worse time. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both sit two games ahead of the Ravens, with the Bengals holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. It's put up or shut up time for Baltimore, starting this week in Cleveland.

Minnesota - The bye week came at a great time. Old Man River (Brett Favre) probably needed a mid-season siesta and the rest of the team probably benefited from the week off. Another benefit: Coming out of the bye week to play the Lions. Looks like the Vikings will continue to pile up victories.

Green Bay - How's your seat feeling, Mike McCarthy? Ted Thompson? Is it a bit warm? Many of my Packers fan friends have started drumming up the idea of a team led by someone not named Mike McCarthy after last week's embarrassing 38-28 loss to the now 1-7 Buccaneers. That game was supposed to be a boost into the tough second half schedule. A team with Super Bowl aspirations will be lucky to sniff the playoffs at all.

Let's get to the picks.

Chicago (4-4) over San Francisco (3-5)

Both teams are heading in the wrong direction. Neither team looked particularly good last week, especially the Niners. My gut tells me the Bears walk out with a slim victory, though this victory could be an ugly one.

New Orleans (8-0) over St. Louis (1-7)

Does this pick really need any explanation?

Miami (3-5) over Tampa Bay (1-7)

Chances are, Josh Freeman will come back down to earth after last week's immaculate debut against the Packers. The 'Fins have given New England and New York fits, meaning they're pretty good. The Bucs, on the other hand, couldn't stay on the same field as New England in London a couple weeks ago.

Minnesota (7-1) over Detroit (1-7)

In ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em, green bars are used to represent the amount of people picking a particular team in a given match-up. Until this week, I had never seen a game where one team had NOTHING in their bar. Everyone is picking against the Lions, and I'm not going to fight the crowd.

New York Jets (4-4) over Jacksonville (4-4)

The line seems way too high on this one (NYJ +8) but the Jaguars beat St. Louis and Kansas City by a combined six points. The Jets have lost two of their last three games, but those losses came against a scrappy Dolphins team and a Bills defense that forced Mark Sanchez to throw five picks. Jacksonville's pass defense is awful, meaning Sanchez should have a nice afternoon.

Tennessee (2-6) over Buffalo (3-5)

Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing, with his 959 yards putting him 122 ahead of second-place Cedric Benson. Johnson and the Titans face the worst run defense in the league this week. The only chance Buffalo has is to exploit the Titans' pass defense while holding Johnson in check. The diagnosis isn't good for Buffalo.

Pittsburgh (6-2) over Cincinnati (6-2)

Last week, I picked against Pittsburgh and they made me look stupid. There's no way I'm going to do it again, especially against a Bengals team that probably isn't in the same league as the defending champs. As I type this, Cincinnati may prove me wrong once again and take control of the division.

Denver (6-2) over Washington (2-6)

The wheels really have fallen off in Washington. If it wasn't clear before last week, the fight that broke out during last week's loss to the Falcons should have been all the evidence you need. The Redskins likely will win again this year, just not this week.

Atlanta (5-3) over Carolina (3-5)

We're halfway through the NFL season and I still haven't figured out these two teams. When I lose all confidence in the Panthers, they beat the defending NFC champs. Just when I gain confidence in Atlanta, they have to work to hold of the fledgling Redskins late at home. Hopefully the Falcons don't bite me on this one.

Kansas City (1-7) over Oakland (2-6)

In my NFL relegation article on BleacherReport.com, both of these teams would have been sent down to NFL-B. That is entirely indicative of how bad both the Chiefs and Raiders are. As is the theme this week, I'm going with my gut and taking the Chiefs.

San Diego (5-3) over Philadelphia (5-3)

These teams are incredibly similar on the stat sheet and in their division race. Both sit in second place and could very much use a win Sunday to keep up with a division leader only a game ahead. Injuries on Philly's defense, however, will key a win for the surging Chargers. Phillip Rivers may not have a huge game, but he's finding ways to lead the Bolts to victory, making the defending AFC West champs dangerous in the second half of the season.

Arizona (5-3) over Seattle (5-3)

Arizona is a mind-boggling 1-3 at home while sporting a spotless 4-0 record away from University of Phoenix Stadium. Fortunes should turn when the struggling Seahawks travel to the desert, where an ailing defense will likely be taken advantage of by a newly motivated Kurt Warner.

Dallas (6-2) over Green Bay (4-4)

The wheels aren't falling off in Titletown, but they're starting to shake a little. Last week's loss to Tampa Bay was embarrassing and hurt the Pack dearly. If the struggling Green Bay offensive line couldn't contain Stylez G White, what will it do when DeMarcus Ware and Keith Brooking are lining up against it?

New England (6-2) over Indianapolis (8-0)

The favorite has won the last three meetings between these two teams held in Indianapolis. The line on this one? Indy +2. Trends have to end eventually. The Colts have looked good of late, but I've been more impressed with the Patriots. The Pats will look to make a statement at Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday afternoon ... and will by knocking off the previously undefeated Colts.

Baltimore (4-4) over Cleveland (1-7)
**Eliminator Pick**

This really is a must-win for the Ravens. Luckily, the hapless Browns are on the docket this week. The first meeting between these two teams saw Baltimore cruise to a 34-3 victory. Look for much of the same Monday. Brady Quinn was benched in the first meeting because of poor play and probably won't fare much better this time around.

Last week: 9-4
Season record: 85-44

NFL picks - Week 9

2009-11-06T14:07:00.004-06:00

As indicated by my lack of a full picks column last weekend, I thoroughly enjoyed my Halloween weekend. I can only hope all of you reading this did the same.

The best weekend of the year has passed, November has arrived and the NFL season is getting very, very interesting. New Orleans stayed perfect after another close call, Indianapolis got its first true test of the season and the Rams finally won a game. Only one team, Tampa Bay, remains winless. Might we see a resurrection of the Yuckaneers?

Time for some fast analysis.

Baltimore - Losing after the bye week would have been a major step backwards, but the Ravens came out firing and dominated the Broncos. It was a glimpse into the past for a Ravens defense that has struggled defending the pass in 2009. The road doesn't get easier this week, as Baltimore travels to division-leading Cincinnati.

Minnesota - A lot has been made of how well the offense has been playing - and it has been exceptional - but the pass defense needs to lock down if the Vikings have any chance to get to Miami ... especially with the Saints, the second coming of The Greatest Show on Turf, standing in their way.

Green Bay - New week, same story for the Packers. The offensive line again got dominated, Aaron Rodgers still put up a strong performance and the defense continued to bend at the mercy of the opposing offense. Luckily, the Buccaneers are up this week. It's a good place to get some footing for the second half of the season.

Let's get to the picks.

Atlanta (4-3) over Washington (2-5)
**Eliminator Pick**

I'm still not 100 percent sure what to think about Atlanta. They nearly beat the unbeaten Saints but got beaten, fairly easily, by the Cowboys. Luckily for the Falcons, the Redskins are nowhere near as good as Dallas or New Orleans. Expect a game closer than expected, but the Falcons get the home win.

Arizona (4-3) over Chicago (4-3)

Games like this will prove Jay Cutler's true value in the NFL. The Cardinals have the eighth-best rush defense in the league, and with Matt Forte only performing well against inferior opponents, the onus is on Cutler to lead the Bears to victory. I'm not convinced he can.

Baltimore (4-3) over Cincinnati (5-2)

Another loss to the Bengals would seriously dampen Baltimore's hopes of claiming the AFC North crown. After last week's victory, confidence is high for the Ravens and the team knows the importance of this game. There will be no last-minute, game-winning drive for Cincinnati this time around.

Indianapolis (7-0) over Houston (5-3)

After last week's narrow escape, the Colts are on high alert ... and just in time. The Texans are showing signs of continuity and often play the Colts very tough. This game is in Indy and the Texans don't have a strong track record in series games played outside of Reliant Stadium.

New England (5-2) over Miami (3-4)

The last two results for the Patriots? Bye week and a thrashing of the Titans. Needless to say, the Pats are in a good place right now and are looking like the team I picked to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLIV. Miami has looked adequate as of late, but that isn't good enough to beat a rested Patriots team.

Green Bay (4-3) over Tampa Bay (0-7)

A best-case scenario for the Bucs may be three wins this season, with two or less more likely. Neither of Tampa's winnable games are this week's match-up with the Packers, though. Don't expect much of a contest in this one.

Jacksonville (3-4) over Kansas City (1-6)

Neither of these teams are particularly good at playing defense, but the fact that Maurice Jones-Drew will be running against the 26th-ranked rush defense in the league gives the Jags the edge.

New Orleans (7-0) over Carolina (3-4)

After a couple of close calls, the Saints get a pretty soft game against a division rival. New Orleans had better come out firing, though - as the Panthers proved last week, they can hang with some good teams. Drew Brees likely won't fire five interceptions and the Saints will likely reach the halfway point to regular-season perfection.

Seattle (2-5) over Detroit (1-6)

Calvin Johnson, while hoping to play Sunday, won't be at 100 percent if he does take the field for the first time after injuring his knee earlier this season. Without Megatron, Matthew Stafford has nobody to throw to ... and the Lions don't win this game.

Tennessee (1-6) over San Francisco (3-4)

For as bad as the Titans' defense has been this year, the Niners offense hasn't been much better. When Alex Smith is the answer to your offense's current problems, the only thing your offense's future has in store is more problems. Chris Johnson may have some trouble against San Francisco's stout rush defense, but the Titans will find a way to sneak away with a victory.

New York Giants (5-3) over San Diego (4-3)

In a game between two teams that are so similar, the little differences end up making the biggest impact. The Giants are ranked seventh in rushing offense. The Chargers? 31st. When both teams struggle stopping the run effectively, it's the team with the better rushing attack that will take the win.

Dallas (5-2) over Philadelphia (5-2)

The two teams in control of the NFC East are eerily similar to each other. Both teams have adequate, but not special, rush defenses and potent offenses. Sometimes, it's just better to go with your gut, and my gut tells me the Cowboys are going to steal one from Philly Sunday night.

Denver (6-1) over Pittsburgh (5-2)

As usual, the Steelers and Ravens are very similar teams. The biggest difference between the two teams is Baltimore's balance. Denver ranks eighth against the pass and the Steelers will need a good game out of Rashard Mendenhall to take down the Broncos at Mile High Monday night.

Last week: 9-4
Season record: 76-40

NFL picks - Week 8

2009-10-31T13:16:00.003-05:00

Happy Halloween to everyone!

Since today is, in fact, my favorite day of the entire calendar year, I will be flying through a quick version of this week's picks in anticipation for tonight's shenanigans.

Full picks and fast analysis return in next week's installment.

Let's get to the picks.

Houston (4-3) over Buffalo (3-4)

Chicago (3-3) over Cleveland (1-6)
**Eliminator Pick**

Dallas (4-2) over Seattle (2-4)

Detroit (1-5) over St. Louis (0-7)

Indianapolis (6-0) over San Francisco (3-3)

Miami (2-4) over New York Jets (4-3)

Baltimore (3-3) over Denver (6-0)

New York Giants (5-2) over Philadelphia (4-2)

Jacksonville (3-3) over Tennessee (0-6)

San Diego (3-3) over Oakland (2-5)

Minnesota (6-1) over Green Bay (4-2)

Arizona (4-2) over Carolina (2-4)

New Orleans (6-0) over Atlanta (4-2)

Last week: 10-3
Season record: 67-36

NFL picks - Week 7

2009-10-24T19:10:00.002-05:00

Nothing terribly shocking happened last week in the NFL. Call New England's blowout of the Titans shocking all you want, but it really isn't - Tennessee can't defend the pass to save their lives and it's starting to look like the team is giving up on the season.

The most eventful situation of last weekend was my fantasy football team scoring 126 points and losing. Ugh. Time for some fast analysis.

Baltimore - The two biggest problems plaguing Baltimore were exacerbated in the final two minutes of last week's heart-wrenching loss to the Vikings. First of all, the Ravens need help on the corner. Badly. Secondly, Steven Hauschka is NOT the answer for replacing Matt Stover. Maybe I'm still bitter about last week. I don't know.

Minnesota - Two words: watch out. The Vikings looked stellar last week against a solid Ravens team. Their match-up with Pittsburgh this weekend could propel Minnesota to 7-0 and leave them battling with the Saints for home-field advantage as the holidays only get closer.

Green Bay - Well, the Packers shut out the Lions. In all honesty, it shouldn't have been as close as 26-0. At least it was a confidence booster for the team heading into Cleveland this weekend, where the team's confidence should only grow further.

Let's get to the picks.

Green Bay (3-2) over Cleveland (1-5)

As I said in my preseason column, the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They have allowed twice as many points as they've scored. That isn't a good thing for the Browns when Aaron Rodgers will be tossing the pigskin against their defense this week.

San Diego (2-3) over Kansas City (1-5)
**Eliminator Pick**

The Chiefs go from playing a team with absolutely no offense (Washington) to playing one with a whole lot of it. San Diego looked shaky coming off the bye last weekend, but Kansas City and Denver are two very, very different teams. The biggest difference? Denver actually plays defense.

Indianapolis (5-0) over St. Louis (0-6)

Do I even need to explain this pick? Didn't think so.

Pittsburgh (4-2) over Minnesota (6-0)

If not for an errant Steven Hauschka field goal attempt, the Vikings are 5-1 right now. They aren't, though, but the season's first loss isn't far off. Ben Roethlisberger is the fourth-highest rated passer in the NFL and Minnesota's pass defense is ranked 26th in the league. Even more, this game is in Pittsburgh. This doesn't end well for the Vikings.

New England (4-2) over Tampa Bay (0-6)

Fans at Wembley Stadium might not get 59-0, but it won't be a close game.

San Francisco (3-2) over Houston (3-3)

The Texans are shaky at home and the Niners are coming off a bye. Houston has never really put it all together in consecutive weeks against solid opponents, and the Texans went into Cincinnati and beat the AFC North-leading Bengals by 11 last Sunday. You know what that means ...

Buffalo (2-4) over Carolina (2-3)

Six more interceptions this week is an aberration, but the Bills are looking fairly strong as of late. The same cannot be said of the Panthers, whose two wins have come over teams with a combined record of 2-10. Quietly, the Bills are trying to sneak their way into the AFC East race.

New York Jets (3-3) over Oakland (2-4)

Six more interceptions this week is an aberration. Every young quarterback has a rough outing, and last week's abysmal showing by Mark Sanchez was his reality check. Things should straighten out this week as the Raiders line up against Sanchez and company. Oakland may have upset Philly last week, but don't expect the same this Sunday.

Dallas (3-2) over Atlanta (4-1)

Surprisingly enough, Dallas and Atlanta are eerily similar teams. The stat lines for both teams are nearly identical, save for one major difference: Dallas ranks second in offensive yards per game, Atlanta ranks 18th. The Falcons' run defense hasn't been at its best, a big problem when facing the Cowboys.

Chicago (3-2) over Cincinnati (4-2)

It seems the Bengals are a bit of an enigma. They needed overtime to beat the Browns, drove against the Ravens' defense for a last-minute victory, then got beaten fairly handily by the Texans. Chicago isn't great, but the Bears are good enough to go into Cincinnati and get a victory.

New Orleans (5-0) over Miami (2-3)

The Saints look absolutely terrifying after last week's systematic dismantling of the Giants. All signs point to a battle to the death between the Saints, Giants and Vikings for NFC supremacy. In the mean time, the Dolphins shouldn't provide much of a challenge for Drew Brees and company. I pick against the 'Fins all the time, though, so they might bite me on this one.

New York Giants (5-1) over Arizona (3-2)

How good is New York's defense? After getting ripped apart by the Saints last week, the Giants are still five yards per game better than the second-ranked Broncos. The defending NFC champs can light it up on offense, but this isn't exactly the best time to be playing a motivated and angry Giants team.

Philadelphia (3-2) over Washington (2-4)

After Philly's stink bomb in Oakland last week, a prime-time contest with the hated Redskins might be the best elixir. Despite the front office's vote of confidence for Jim Zorn, Washington's coaching staff and roster is a mess. If Washington's problems weren't national news before Monday night, they will be after.

Last week: 9-5
Season record: 57-33

NFL picks - Week 6

2009-10-16T14:55:00.006-05:00

Last week was rough on me.

For starters, my picks mark was easily my worst of the 2009 season. My Red Sox were swept by the Angels, Florida State lost AGAIN and, worst of all, the Ravens lost a game they should have won. Yikes.

Thankfully, a new week of NFL action is here. Big games dot the landscape this week, a true measuring stick for some teams. At least one of the remaining undefeated will fall when the Giants and Saints clash in New Orleans Sunday. No matter the outcome, one more team is guaranteed to remain undefeated, as the Colts take the weekend off.

As usual, some quick analysis before we get to the picks.

Baltimore - The news is out: Baltimore doesn't have very good cornerbacks. The days of Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister are long gone. A pair of last-minute losses may send most teams into a tailspin, but a Ray Lewis-led squad? Not so much. The secondary, however, is a problem that needs to be addressed immediately.

Minnesota - The biggest test of the year for the Vikings comes Sunday afternoon when the Ravens arrive at the Metrodome. To no surprise, Minnesota lit up the Rams last week, but the guys lining up across from the undefeated Vikings this Sunday are no pushovers. A tough game is surely in store for the NFC North leaders.

Green Bay - Mark Tauscher's return to Green Bay should help the Packers line, but how much he'll help remains to be seen. Tauscher wasn't in training camp and hasn't seen live action since last season. I'm fairly certain I would be an upgrade over Allen Barbre at this juncture, though.

Let's get to the picks.

Houston (2-3) over Cincinnati (4-1)

I don't know if this is bitterness or logic, but my gut tells me the Texans are going to put something good together this week. That probably means Houston will be erratic for the following two games, but nonetheless, a win is a win.

Green Bay (2-2) over Detroit (1-4)

The Lions are going to come into Lambeau Field and beat the Packers after Green Bay's bye week? Right. Detroit has allowed a league-high 162 points this season, and as long as Aaron Rodgers stays on his feet, he should lead the Packers to a big win.

Baltimore (3-2) over Minnesota (5-0)

The stats for these two teams are eerily similar. The difference, though, is the competition. Minnesota has allowed seven fewer points than Baltimore, doing so while playing the likes of St. Louis, Cleveland and Detroit. The common denominator in this is Cleveland. Minnesota beat the Browns 34-20. The Ravens beat Cleveland 34-3.

New Orleans (4-0) over New York Giants (5-0)

Both teams have dominated their opponents all season. Both teams have very potent offenses and stingy defenses. New York's wins have come against three terrible teams with a combined one win (Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland) and two wildly underwhelming teams (Washington and Dallas). The Saints pounded two bad teams (Detroit and Buffalo) but also put on impressive performances against the Eagles and Jets, two solid squads. New Orleans is rested and at home, and the only thing more dangerous than Drew Brees is a rested and focused Drew Brees.

Pittsburgh (3-2) over Cleveland (1-4)

The only team in the AFC to score less frequently is Oakland. That is NOT a good sign for Eric Mangini's bunch. A worse sign? Cleveland travels to Heinz Field to play the defending Super Bowl champs Sunday. This one could get u-g-l-y.

Carolina (1-3) over Tampa Bay (0-5)

Carolina has quietly put together a top-10 defense so far in 2009. The offense hasn't done anything near that, but the perfect remedy for an ailing offense is a Sunday afternoon with the Buccaneers.

Kansas City (0-5) over Washington (2-3)

As evidenced in last weekend's deplorable loss to the Panthers, the Redskins aren't very good. To make matters worse, the players are now squabbling with the front office to save Jim Zorn's job, a position that looks like it belongs to Mike Shanahan in 2010 more every day. Things go from bad to worse for the Redskins this week.

Jacksonville (2-3) over St. Louis (0-5)
**Eliminator Pick**

The 31st-ranked point differential in the NFL belongs to the Oakland Raiders, sporting a pathetic minus-78 mark. St. Louis is 32nd ... at minus-112. The Jags might not be all that good, but the Rams have mustered only 34 points all season. If St. Louis doesn't beat the Lions in two weeks, they may not win all year.

Seattle (2-3) over Arizona (2-2)

Seattle is my vice this year - I just can't figure them out. I'm trying to get a handle on them this week, when they host the defending NFC champs. The Seahawks have been up and down this year, but throughout the years, they've been a tough team at Qwest Field. The stadium and pass defense gives Seattle the advantage.

Philadelphia (3-1) over Oakland (1-4)

News flash: Oakland is terrible. The Raiders desperately need Darren McFadden back if they expect to win more than two games this season. Philly, on the other hand, has looked good and has surprised me a bit this season. The only surprise in this one would be a Raiders victory.

New England (3-2) over Tennessee (0-5)

I just can't keep picking the Titans. I've lost faith. Tennessee can't stop the pass, a huge problem when Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are on the opposing sideline. The league has never seen an 0-6 team the likes of the Titans.

New York Jets (3-2) over Buffalo (1-4)

How Terrell Owens hasn't started a riot in the Bills locker room is beyond me. He's playing on one of the worst teams in football and his quarterback is more erratic than Tony Romo, Jeff Garcia or Donovan McNabb was on their worst day. Things won't get any better this week.

Atlanta (3-1) over Chicago (3-1)

So, the Falcons proved me very, very wrong last week. Let's see if they prove me right Sunday night. Atlanta looked absolutely stellar against a solid 49ers team last week. The Bears are rested, but the Georgia Dome will be rocking for a primetime game against one of the better teams in the NFC. A close one goes to Matty Ice and company.

San Diego (2-2) over Denver (5-0)

I keep picking against Denver. Sooner or later, I may come around ... or the Broncos will start proving me right. The Broncos held two of the league's top 10 offenses in check over the past two weeks, but neither of those games saw an opponent that was desperate to win, coming off a bye week, playing at home. The Chargers are all three and will be just too much for the undefeated Broncos to handle.

Last week: 7-7
Season record: 48-28